Worst takes on this message board

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

there's no trend line with Tom Brady’s completion percentage numbers over the years. i think that should tell you how much influence a player has over his fortunes there.

[mikey]

Yeah, you just keep throwing the baby out with the bath water. Looking at general faceoff win% isn't useful. Not all faceoffs are created equal. NZ faceoffs generally don't matter. DZ faceoffs matter (as we saw last night, nearly giving up a goal with 1.7 seconds left in the 2nd period because Carter lost a faceoff clean). OZ faceoffs matter, as losses on power plays greatly reduce PP efficiency. Like most things, there's a timeliness to the game that matters and there is some degree of control. Similarly, rating goalies by save percentage assumes that are all shots are created equal.

One source to pursue, as this is a highly transactional piece of the game: https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... e-offs#pf5

"While the value of individual face-offs is thought to be small, we find that there is considerable variability in value based on game context (e.g. the zone and side of the ice where the face-off takes place, along with player handedness and usage). We show that even within the same game context, not all face-off wins are created equal, with some players creating additional value through clean wins and targeting specific areas on the ice. In fact, players who generate the most value from faceoffs do not necessarily have higher face-off win rates, suggesting that both win percentages and win value must be taken into account to measure the full impact generated during a draw."

[shmenguin]

there's no trend line with Tom Brady’s completion percentage numbers over the years. i think that should tell you how much influence a player has over his fortunes there.

drive by, low information post

[shmenguin]

Yeah, you just keep throwing the baby out with the bath water. Looking at general faceoff win% isn't useful. Not all faceoffs are created equal. NZ faceoffs generally don't matter. DZ faceoffs matter (as we saw last night, nearly giving up a goal with 1.7 seconds left in the 2nd period because Carter lost a faceoff clean). OZ faceoffs matter, as losses on power plays greatly reduce PP efficiency. Like most things, there's a timeliness to the game that matters and there is some degree of control. Similarly, rating goalies by save percentage assumes that are all shots are created equal.

One source to pursue, as this is a highly transactional piece of the game: https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... e-offs#pf5

"While the value of individual face-offs is thought to be small, we find that there is considerable variability in value based on game context (e.g. the zone and side of the ice where the face-off takes place, along with player handedness and usage). We show that even within the same game context, not all face-off wins are created equal, with some players creating additional value through clean wins and targeting specific areas on the ice. In fact, players who generate the most value from faceoffs do not necessarily have higher face-off win rates, suggesting that both win percentages and win value must be taken into account to measure the full impact generated during a draw."

ok.

but that's not the conversation. a faceoff can be very important. but a player can't will himself to be good at faceoffs, and there doesn't appear to be a correlation between effort/training and improvement. so you play the hand your dealt with this ability. and teams can choose to pay a guy for being good at it, or they can do what they've always done and just consider it found money if one of their guys excels at it.

[nocera]

But the post you replied to specifically called out "important draws."

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

and there doesn't appear to be a correlation between effort/training and improvement

citation needed on this one

[shmenguin]

But the post you replied to specifically called out "important draws."

ok? does that mean our guys just aren't trying to move their hands and shoulders quickly enough because they don't appreciate the moment, or is this stat largely random chaos in any single transaction?

[mikey]

Yeah, I can say for an absolute fact that you can practice faceoffs and get better at them. I'm an excellent faceoff taker and teach my willing players to be better at them. Do they get to a level where they can win them all, no? Similarly, goalies practice making saves every single practice and it's basically all they do during games, yet, there is no linear progression or whatever for goalies - it's mostly just team effects that hit GAA and save pct.

The difference between the 2nd best saver in the league and the 28th over the past three seasons is 1.2%.That same range (1.2%) in faceoffs only spans from 2nd to 3rd. But 2nd to 28th is 4.2%. So, it's not hard to say that goaltending is random and there is no correlation between effort/training and improvement. And many other elements seem to be subject to the randominity in this arena, and thus, the game...

[nocera]

But the post you replied to specifically called out "important draws."

ok? does that mean our guys just aren't trying to move their hands and shoulders quickly enough because they don't appreciate the moment, or is this stat largely random chaos in any single transaction?

Here’s the full interaction for clarity:

How about face offs? We are getting CRUSHED. Especially important draws.

who gives a poo. you can't will yourself to improve at faceoffs or practice extra. they just happen, and they'll even out in the long run. you deal with them until they improve.

So you’re saying that a face off is a random occurrence and players can’t influence the outcome? That’s a bad take and that’s why we’re here.

[mikey]

I think I saw while glancing around today that Sid is like 33% in the DZ this series, which is horrific...

[faftorial]

Didn't Sid have one of his objectives after his first few years to get better at face offs? And he did.

At least that is what I remember Steigy blabbing on about.

[shmenguin]

I think I saw while glancing around today that Sid is like 33% in the DZ this series, which is horrific...

so you think he should try harder to improve? what would explain this?

[Dickie Dunn]

Didn't Sid have one of his objectives after his first few years to get better at face offs? And he did.

At least that is what I remember Steigy blabbing on about.

He was quite bad his rookie year and immediately improved. Became one of the better face-off guys in the league.

http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?aggreg ... ageSize=50

[meow]

Face off percentages are dumb. Most face offs are meaningless. The ones that are important, boy howdy they are huge events within a game.

[shmenguin]

Didn't Sid have one of his objectives after his first few years to get better at face offs? And he did.

At least that is what I remember Steigy blabbing on about.

He was quite bad his rookie year and immediately improved. Became one of the better face-off guys in the league.

http://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?aggreg ... ageSize=50

Low/mid 50’s. Isn’t that pretty much like the median?

[tifosi77]

Mid-50s would put you top-20 in the entire League.

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

I would guess the median and the average is 50

[mikey]

I think I saw while glancing around today that Sid is like 33% in the DZ this series, which is horrific...

so you think he should try harder to improve? what would explain this?

I think the other guys are trying too for some reason...

[meow]

Is shmengy arguing about percentages or faceoffs as a whole being insignificant? I'm not sure

[faftorial]

And something along the lines of you can't get better at face offs even if you try to get better?

[shmenguin]

Is shmengy arguing about percentages or faceoffs as a whole being insignificant? I'm not sure

He’s saying they aren’t worth worrying about. Because your centers are your centers and you don’t plan your draft or free agency around a guy who wins an extra 1 out of 10.

The phenomenon of faceoffs is highly influential to the outcome of a game, but every individual transaction is ultimately still very random

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

you don’t draft a guy because he can kill a penalty but having that tool improves his value

this is a weird hill to die on

[meow]

The phenomenon of faceoffs is highly influential to the outcome of a game, but every individual transaction is ultimately still very random

I don't understand this point. Can you elaborate?

[tifosi77]

It means he's never played center.

[shmenguin]

The phenomenon of faceoffs is highly influential to the outcome of a game, but every individual transaction is ultimately still very random

I don't understand this point. Can you elaborate?

Faceoffs matter but whoever is gonna win any given one of them is a crap shoot.