GDT #75: Pens @ Devils

Post by **mikey** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 2:21 pm

Exactly. We watched the team actually quit for a couple weeks. Crosby became like a minus-2 zillion. Jarry's stats fluffed up. And there isn't enough runway to fix them...

That's the thing about average stats and rate stats...not one team has ever won a playoff series on averaging stats. And averaging stats are really hit hard by extreme values...

Post by **King Colby** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 2:27 pm

Man. They really did quit for about 6 or 7 games. I'd imagine they'd be a couple points closer to the playoffs or even in them if they hadn't.

Between that and squandered points... I can name 5 games and 8 points without even thinking about it (Anaheim LA Calgary Colorado columbus)... that will be their undoing.

Post by **meecrofilm** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 3:08 pm

Also 4-11 in OT, which...do they actually not practice that or was this an internet myth run amok?

King Colby wrote: ↑Wed Apr 03, 2024 2:27 pm Man. They really did quit for about 6 or 7 games. I'd imagine they'd be a couple points closer to the playoffs or even in them if they hadn't.

Nah, that's just why they've got enough energy now to win back-to-backs!

Post by **mikey** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 3:25 pm

Folks think we don't practice 3 on 3?

Post by **crusherstasiak** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 3:47 pm

King Colby wrote: ↑Wed Apr 03, 2024 2:27 pm Man. They really did quit for about 6 or 7 games. I'd imagine they'd be a couple points closer to the playoffs or even in them if they hadn't.

Between that and squandered points... I can name 5 games and 8 points without even thinking about it (Anaheim LA Calgary Colorado columbus)... that will be their undoing.

the 2-0 lead going into the 3rd in vegas which they lost 3-2 in regulation

Post by **Gaucho** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 3:50 pm

On the other hand, the wins in Tampa, Vancouver and New Jersey ... but yeah, they squandered more points than they stole.

Post by **crusherstasiak** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 3:54 pm

Gaucho wrote: ↑Wed Apr 03, 2024 3:50 pm On the other hand, the wins in Tampa, Vancouver and New Jersey ... but yeah, they squandered more points than they stole.

https://champsorchumps.us/records/most- ... ds-in-2024

Post by **MalkinIsMyHomeboy** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 4:27 pm

mikey wrote: ↑Wed Apr 03, 2024 2:21 pm Exactly. We watched the team actually quit for a couple weeks. Crosby became like a minus-2 zillion. Jarry's stats fluffed up. And there isn't enough runway to fix them...

That's the thing about average stats and rate stats...not one team has ever won a playoff series on averaging stats. And averaging stats are really hit hard by extreme values...

if extreme values affect an averaging stat enough then that means the extreme happened enough to affect the averaging stat; which points to inconsistency...

at Jarry's best he's a Vezina contender. at his worst he's the league leader in incomplete games. Personally I'm not a huge fan of going into the playoffs with that kind of a goalie

Post by **JC2** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 4:55 pm

mikey wrote: ↑Wed Apr 03, 2024 3:25 pm Folks think we don't practice 3 on 3?

If they do, then they need to stop using Reirden's blank play book...

In general, all special teams have been pretty bad this year - 3v3, 4v4, and PP. The PK is at least okay... probably because they have an awesome goalie tandem.

Post by **mikey** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 5:13 pm

MalkinIsMyHomeboy wrote: ↑Wed Apr 03, 2024 4:27 pm
mikey wrote: ↑Wed Apr 03, 2024 2:21 pm Exactly. We watched the team actually quit for a couple weeks. Crosby became like a minus-2 zillion. Jarry's stats fluffed up. And there isn't enough runway to fix them...

That's the thing about average stats and rate stats...not one team has ever won a playoff series on averaging stats. And averaging stats are really hit hard by extreme values...
if extreme values affect an averaging stat enough then that means the extreme happened enough to affect the averaging stat; which points to inconsistency...

at Jarry's best he's a Vezina contender. at his worst he's the league leader in incomplete games. Personally I'm not a huge fan of going into the playoffs with that kind of a goalie

Not quite.

Extreme values have an undue impact on averaging stats, but not an undue impact on wins.

Goalie A GA:
0
0
1
1
0
12

Goalie B GA:
4
3
3
0
3
1

Both goalies have a 2.33 GAA...but goalie A is very likely sporting a .833 pts%; while goalie B is maybe .500.

"Well, no one gives up 12"

They don't have to. 4 goals against and pulled after 1 period is, effectively, a 12 spot. (which would actually raise Goalie A's GAA over Goalie B's)

Same thing for bum ass save pct.

The all time leaders in playoff save pct. predominantly lost in round 1...

These just aren't reliable metrics for determining goaltending quality, and less so, their actual game application.

Post by **JC2** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 6:06 pm

Do we all remember Pekka Rinne turning into a dumpster fire in the finals?

Good times.

Post by **mikey** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 6:12 pm

We didn't get a shot for over 37 minutes (!) in game 1 and then Guentzel came down and snipped him from mid-range...what a rusty skate boot to the testicles that must have been for them...

Post by **JC2** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 6:32 pm

If only Rinne was more consistent...

Post by **Morkle** » Thu Apr 04, 2024 8:13 am

mikey wrote: ↑Wed Apr 03, 2024 6:12 pm We didn't get a shot for over 37 minutes (!) in game 1 and then Guentzel came down and snipped him from mid-range...what a rusty skate boot to the testicles that must have been for them...

People were calling for Saros even before that series IIRC.

Post by **meow** » Thu Apr 04, 2024 8:25 am

Not me. I wanted Rinne to stay in there

Post by **nocera** » Thu Apr 04, 2024 9:13 am

“I just think Pekka Rinne is too good right now.”

Post by **mikey** » Thu Apr 04, 2024 9:15 am

Coming into the series, Rinne was 12-4 with a 1.70 GAA and .941 save pct.

Saros was a rookie who had played 20 NHL games in his career and two AHL playoff games...I'd be curious to know who was calling for Saros going into the series haha

Post by **nocera** » Thu Apr 04, 2024 9:43 am

Yeah I don’t remember any calls for Saros. I remember Rinne looking unreal and carrying them to the finals

Post by **Rx6687** » Thu Apr 04, 2024 9:44 am

Great point about averaging stats. One of the best examples of this was the 1960 World Series, in which the Yankees outscored the Pirates 65-27 and by every possible statistical measure, should have swept that series in a blowout... except for the fact that the Pirates won several games by very small margins, and the Yankees won two games with scores of 16-3 and 12-0.

So, yes, give me the goalie who puts up a 5-0 record and a 0.50 GAA over his first five starts, but gets pulled after giving up 4 in the first half of the first period of the 6th game, because .833 winning percentage is better than a .933 save percentage. You can put up a .933 save percentage in a playoff series and get swept. (See: Tomas Vokoun vs Boston 2013).

Post by **willeyeam** » Thu Apr 04, 2024 9:49 am

Oh now we like those stats

Post by **dodint** » Thu Apr 04, 2024 9:52 am

I never even considered going back in time to shame the Pirates.

Post by **Rx6687** » Thu Apr 04, 2024 10:18 am

dodint wrote: ↑Thu Apr 04, 2024 9:52 am I never even considered going back in time to shame the Pirates.

Haha, well, no shame at all in winning a world championship.... no matter how ugly it is. The stats in that series do prove mikey's point, though. Give me the guy who wins four out of seven games, no matter how ugly the three losses are.

Post by **LeopardLetang** » Thu Apr 04, 2024 2:31 pm

nocera wrote: ↑Thu Apr 04, 2024 9:13 am “I just think Pekka Rinne is too good right now.”

Why do I hear that in Eddie O's voice

Post by **JC2** » Thu Apr 04, 2024 2:52 pm

It was the leaf's video blogger guy, right?

Post by **nocera** » Thu Apr 04, 2024 2:58 pm

JC2 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 04, 2024 2:52 pm It was the leaf's video blogger guy, right?

I thought it was Urinating Tree.