Dodint's Thread of Pirates 23-24 Offseason Optimism

Troy Loney
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Dodint's Thread of Pirates 23-24 Offseason Optimism

Postby Troy Loney » Sun Nov 05, 2023 1:59 pm

I dont get it.

Bido
Garcia
Hatch
Andre Jackson
Kranick
Selby
Stratton

Do we really need any of these guys on the 40 man? I take perdomo over every one of em.

Selby and Bido have options left, so I think they are likely to stick around as depth pieces. I guess Stratton is in that category to, but I think he's more likely in the category with the next group.

The out of option guys include Jackson, Hatch, Kranick and Falter. So those are the guys they are removing if/when they sign a free agent.

This round of cuts was likely to make room for the 60-day IL guys and the rule V draft. I imagine they'll want to take someone and they are probably going to protect to of Cheng, Ashcraft, and Bowen.

LeopardLetang
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Dodint's Thread of Pirates 23-24 Offseason Optimism

Postby LeopardLetang » Sun Nov 05, 2023 2:44 pm

Protect Bowen? That seems surprising but I haven't been reading anything post regular season

ah you said 2 of. I also don't think Cheng would be that risky to leave off but as a contact hitting middle infielder he has a better chance of sticking than bowen but his poor AA showing could keep him under the radar

Troy Loney
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Dodint's Thread of Pirates 23-24 Offseason Optimism

Postby Troy Loney » Sun Nov 05, 2023 2:54 pm

Bowen is having a strong afl showing, I wouldn’t otherwise consider him as worth protecting. I think Cheng just has a unique hit profile and might be a flier from one of the trash teams in the league.

I think you have to keep ashcraft. This team can’t risk losing an upside arm like him. I wouldn’t be upset if they left the other two exposed and lost them. It’s not the same situation as last year with 40-man

LeopardLetang
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Dodint's Thread of Pirates 23-24 Offseason Optimism

Postby LeopardLetang » Sun Nov 05, 2023 8:43 pm

I thought Bowen might be doing well in the fall. And agreed about Ashcraft. An arm is worth preserving over another infielder or a strike out power guy. Although I think I used to be the one arguing on Bowen's side. And can't he kinda play center?

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Dodint's Thread of Pirates 23-24 Offseason Optimism

Postby willeyeam » Sun Nov 05, 2023 8:56 pm

Young Hayes gold glove

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Dodint's Thread of Pirates 23-24 Offseason Optimism

Postby faftorial » Sun Nov 05, 2023 9:00 pm

Young Hayes gold glove
:thumb:

Troy Loney
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Dodint's Thread of Pirates 23-24 Offseason Optimism

Postby Troy Loney » Mon Nov 06, 2023 7:04 am

I thought Bowen might be doing well in the fall. And agreed about Ashcraft. An arm is worth preserving over another infielder or a strike out power guy. Although I think I used to be the one arguing on Bowen's side. And can't he kinda play center?
With the giants having a degree of success with Sabol, i think it makes it more likely a team takes a longer look at the pirates’
40-man decisions.

They added nicolas at the end of last season, I thought he was a tweener, looks like he’ll get a long look as a bullpen guy this year.

Actually, I think ashcraft is the only one I add this year. Bowen and Cheng can’t stick on an active roster next year

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Dodint's Thread of Pirates 23-24 Offseason Optimism

Postby willeyeam » Mon Nov 06, 2023 7:18 am

We need to quit talking about Blake Sabol

Troy Loney
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Dodint's Thread of Pirates 23-24 Offseason Optimism

Postby Troy Loney » Mon Nov 06, 2023 8:31 am

Less about Blake Sabol and more that the Pirates should not be losing players in the rule V draft, especially position players.

LeopardLetang
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Dodint's Thread of Pirates 23-24 Offseason Optimism

Postby LeopardLetang » Mon Nov 06, 2023 9:00 am

A catcher with power that played a lot of games at catcher for a decent team but can play other positions and wasn't bad defensively as a rookie with a giant frame and would have had the 7th best ops on the team (over 100pa). That's better than

Palacios Castro Delay Peguero Davis Marcano Gonzales Endy Bae etc.

Would they be letting him go if he was on the roster right now?

I completely agree he's almost nothing and it's nit picking and loser mentality to think about him. But I still find it interesting.

Troy Loney
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Dodint's Thread of Pirates 23-24 Offseason Optimism

Postby Troy Loney » Mon Nov 06, 2023 9:57 am

Looked at WAR by position to get an idea of what drove the mid 70's win total. Fangraphs numbers, rough estimate, total WAR per player in proportion to the number of games played at each position. So not precise, but a good enough picture of the productive players and positions.

C: 2.38
1B: 1.88
2B: -0.37
SS: -0.73
3B: 4.21
LF: 3.00
CF: 2.49
RF: 0.29
DH: 1.38
SP: 7.00
RP: 5.30

Total - 26.83

Couple of thoughts.

Joe's 1.9 WAR spread across 1B and RF were big drivers for basically any production out of those positions in 53 and 57 games respectively. I don't think there's any question that they should tender him and continue to give him meaningful playing time in 2024.

McCutchen's 1.03 WAR at DH is plenty of production to bring him back in that role.

Triolo's 13 games at 2B basically provided .41 WAR, the rest of the group combined was -.78. I think he's the starter there in '24.

SS will go from the worst position to possibly the best in '24, that is a 3-4 WAR swing easily.
The floor at Catcher is high with the defense Endy and Delay provide, that positive number is driven almost exclusively from defensive value. So that is another huge potential upgrade if Endy's bat improves.

So RF and 1B are the problem areas. With Joe getting most of his time there, that at least presents a modicum of a floor. Davis is clearly the wildcard there, his negative production was driven mostly from the inability to field the position, but that level of bad can't be tolerated. Shrug.

BP production is fine. Bednar, Holderman, Borucki, Moreta, Mlodzinski all positive producers.

Rotation, Keller is fine as your #1 (is what it is). Oviedo is a 4-5 guy. Quinn and Ortiz should be AAA depth, Falter is a swing guy, and Contreras either shows up in camp with his live arm, or they will have to try and sneak him down through waivers (I think he's out of options).

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Dodint's Thread of Pirates 23-24 Offseason Optimism

Postby MrKennethTKangaroo » Mon Nov 06, 2023 10:10 am

I think joe has plenty of value to this team. He has a major league approach at the plate. There is something to be said about that.

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Dodint's Thread of Pirates 23-24 Offseason Optimism

Postby King Colby » Mon Nov 06, 2023 10:26 am

Good pull. That tells me that Triolo and cruz owning the majority of time in the middle infield could have a huge impact

Troy Loney
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Dodint's Thread of Pirates 23-24 Offseason Optimism

Postby Troy Loney » Mon Nov 06, 2023 10:29 am

If Troy Loney were GM:

Just bring Santana back as the LH primary 1B, platoon with Joe.
Tell Davis he's a right fielder now and he can't come back to the majors until he learns how to play the position. Joe and Palacios get the time if Davis hasn't got it down by March.
Make Triolo the starting 2B.
Liover, Bae, Alika, and Gonzalez are competing for two bench spots. Send the other two to Indy.
Buy one premium arm, then do whatever it is they've been doing in FA to fill out the rest of the rotation

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Dodint's Thread of Pirates 23-24 Offseason Optimism

Postby MrKennethTKangaroo » Mon Nov 06, 2023 10:38 am

Is prefer a major leaguer with a pulse as an insurance policy for the middle infield. There’s a lot of depth but a lot of question marks too. Will Cruz be healthy? Will he hit? Can he still field? Is Triolo actually good? Are Williams and liover stiffs? I’d just like to see a bit more experienced depth there but I also realize that any free agent with a pulse would not be interested in playing that role.

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Dodint's Thread of Pirates 23-24 Offseason Optimism

Postby willeyeam » Mon Nov 06, 2023 11:00 am

catcher at 2.38 is nice considering the black hole that was Hedges - that should be 4 war spot next year just without him let alone if Endy breaks out

Joe is good if he's not playing every day and mostly just mashing lefties and playing on getaway day lineup days

Triolo earned a spot but ulf isn't confident he hangs onto it longer than June 1, 2024.

They need to sign a couple of starters

Troy Loney
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Dodint's Thread of Pirates 23-24 Offseason Optimism

Postby Troy Loney » Mon Nov 06, 2023 11:09 am

Is prefer a major leaguer with a pulse as an insurance policy for the middle infield. There’s a lot of depth but a lot of question marks too. Will Cruz be healthy? Will he hit? Can he still field? Is Triolo actually good? Are Williams and liover stiffs? I’d just like to see a bit more experienced depth there but I also realize that any free agent with a pulse would not be interested in playing that role.
I saw something about Cruz asking to play winter league ball. So I think we'll see where he's at pretty soon.

Alika looks like a late inning defensive replacement guy. Which would arguably be an okay role on this team behind Cruz.

Bae, Gonzalez, Pegeuro, and Davis are probably the guys I struggle the most trying to place. Preferably we could send them all to AAA and let them sort out who deserves major league playing time.

Triolo provides a ton of defensive value, like to the point where if he can just exceed .700 OPS he's a 2+ war guy. The defense isn't going to change, but might of course be a struggle for him to keep the slugging % high enough to meet that theshold. Mostly the notion that he's an answer at 1B is stupid. He outperformed all the other infield players in the org last year. Just give him 2B, the defense on the right side is now automatically improved.

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Dodint's Thread of Pirates 23-24 Offseason Optimism

Postby LeopardLetang » Mon Nov 06, 2023 12:38 pm

Bae is still valuable as CF backup and speed off the bench I guess

King Colby
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Dodint's Thread of Pirates 23-24 Offseason Optimism

Postby King Colby » Mon Nov 06, 2023 1:36 pm

The only other option to start at 2nd is peguero so you gotta go triolo there because you need to spend what you do spend in other areas.

I'd live with Santana but he's better RH so give me someone better than that. I'm trying to thrive baby nor survive

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Dodint's Thread of Pirates 23-24 Offseason Optimism

Postby King Colby » Mon Nov 06, 2023 1:59 pm

The Jarlin Garcia era is over. He will be missed.

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Dodint's Thread of Pirates 23-24 Offseason Optimism

Postby DigitalGypsy66 » Tue Nov 07, 2023 6:22 am

Andujar to the A's and Perdomo to the Braves.

Good article on Ke'Bryan Hayes defense this year: https://www.dkpittsburghsports.com/2023 ... cs-mlb-ajs

Troy Loney
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Dodint's Thread of Pirates 23-24 Offseason Optimism

Postby Troy Loney » Wed Nov 08, 2023 12:14 pm

I guess the good thing about the Pirates never having a big regional cable deal, is that the impact of the RSN collapse will not have a huge impact on their go-forward revenues.

Looks like the Twins are the first mid-market team feeling the brunt and having slash payroll.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2023/

Twins were a 150mm payroll last year, I am thinking the payroll cap for like size teams is going to be more like 130mm.

Just trying to game out what teams are going to be aggressive (current projected '24 payroll):

1 New York Mets $202,981,859
2 New York Yankees $202,973,333
3 Philadelphia Phillies9 $196,591,189
4 Houston Astros $187,378,141
5 Texas Rangers $184,300,000
6 Atlanta Braves $175,200,000
7 Chicago Cubs $168,730,000
8 San Diego Padres $146,935,453
9 Boston Red Sox $143,188,181
10 Toronto Blue Jays $142,824,284
11 Los Angeles Angels $138,688,094
12 Colorado Rockies $127,970,000
13 St. Louis Cardinals $126,166,667
14 Seattle Mariners $124,399,049
15 San Francisco Giants $122,400,000
16 Minnesota Twins $108,941,190
17 Los Angeles Dodgers $108,800,000
18 Chicago White Sox $101,173,333
19 Tampa Bay Rays $89,521,212
20 Washington Nationals $81,196,429
21 Arizona Diamondbacks $73,515,000
22 Detroit Tigers $71,100,000
23 Kansas City Royals $62,650,000
24 Cleveland Guardians $61,721,428
25 Miami Marlins $61,305,000
26 Milwaukee Brewers $49,064,960
27 Pittsburgh Pirates $40,350,000
28 Cincinnati Reds $36,373,333
29 Oakland Athletics $33,330,000
30 Baltimore Orioles $26,526,668

Top: Hard to see the Yanks/Mets throw good money at bad, but I don't think they have an alternative. So they'll be active. Phils, Astros, Rangers and Braves likely to be pretty inactive. Cubs and Red Sox likely to sign a big FA each. Padres, Blue Jays, Angels more likely to cut payroll. Cardinals and Giants will add, and the Dodgers likley to blow their load on Ohtani. Reds and Orioles will be active in the mid-tier most likely, being the teams who the Pirates will be bidding against for their mid-targets. Tigers and Nationals are wildcards, no idea what those orgs will want to do.

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Dodint's Thread of Pirates 23-24 Offseason Optimism

Postby MrKennethTKangaroo » Thu Nov 09, 2023 1:39 pm

Rhys Hoskins to the pirates. Make it happen.

Troy Loney
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Dodint's Thread of Pirates 23-24 Offseason Optimism

Postby Troy Loney » Mon Nov 13, 2023 1:44 pm

Oviedo apparently headed for tj surgery.

Down to 1 starting pitcher

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Dodint's Thread of Pirates 23-24 Offseason Optimism

Postby MrKennethTKangaroo » Mon Nov 13, 2023 2:00 pm

That’s a bit strange. And a bit discouraging. More opportunities for priester tho!!!!!!!

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