Steelers at Cowboys- Week 9 GDT - Giddyup!

[willeyeam]

Huh a ball happened to just find Minkahs body again

[Viva la Ben]

8-0!

[NTP66]

This **** team, man.

[skullman80]

Finding ways to win, but they got things to clean up.

[Orlando Penguin]

My eliminator lives to see another week. Unreal sequence of events.

[willeyeam]

Ugly wins better than a pretty loss

[blackjack68]

Huh a ball happened to just find Minkahs body again

Yup, just pure luck.

[Blue Canary]

I’m exhausted.

[NTP66]

Complain about the defense all you want, but they continue to make big plays and finish games.

[faftorial]

Good game from dodint's guy.

[NTP66]

Heyward is a god damn monster.

This may have already been posted, but whatever:

[Blue Canary]

Huh a ball happened to just find Minkahs body again

Magnetic Minkah. Love him.

[willeyeam]

Juju had an excellent game

[NTP66]

Juju had an excellent game

Huge play for the score. He clearly got stronger in the offseason, because he’s bulldozing people out there.

[Tomas]

So this is why going for the 4th down conversion was the correct call at the end:

Let
P= probability Steelers convert
Q = probability Cowboys score a TD after Steelers don't convert
R = probability after Cowboys score a TD after Steelers kick the FG instead of going for conversion

then:
Probability Steelers win after the conversion attempt:
P+ (1-P)*(1-Q)
Probability Steelers win after going for the FG (I am infllating the chances a little by assuming 100% FG success)
1-R (i.e. Cowboys don't score a TD) PLUS
R/2 (Cowboys score but don't convert 2-pt attempt) PLUS
R/4 (Game goes to OT, Steelers have 50/50 shot)

So, conversion attempt makes sense if

P+(1-P)*(1-Q) > (1-R) + R/2 + R/4
P+(1-P)*(1-Q) > 1-R/4

Let's simplify and assume Q=R (which is unfair to the conversion attempt, because Cowboys would likely have a better starting position after the FG score, so, in reality R>Q)

then
P + (1-P)*(1-Q) > 1-Q/4

and, if my math is correct, this simply leads to

P>3/4

So, as long as the probability of conversion the "4th and 1" was greater than 3/4, going for it was the correct call (and 3/4 is likely even overstated due to the simplification Q=R).

[skullman80]

Don't care what formula you use it was the wrong call and a stupid one.

[dodint]

The call may have been correct, but as noted, the execution was horrific.

[PFiDC]

Why do we have to bring math into this?

[nocera]

So this is why going for the 4th down conversion was the correct call at the end:

Let
P= probability Steelers convert
Q = probability Cowboys score a TD after Steelers don't convert
R = probability after Cowboys score a TD after Steelers kick the FG instead of going for conversion

then:
Probability Steelers win after the conversion attempt:
P+ (1-P)*(1-Q)
Probability Steelers win after going for the FG (I am infllating the chances a little by assuming 100% FG success)
1-R (i.e. Cowboys don't score a TD) PLUS
R/2 (Cowboys score but don't convert 2-pt attempt) PLUS
R/4 (Game goes to OT, Steelers have 50/50 shot)

So, conversion attempt makes sense if

P+(1-P)*(1-Q) > (1-R) + R/2 + R/4
P+(1-P)*(1-Q) > 1-R/4

Let's simplify and assume Q=R (which is unfair to the conversion attempt, because Cowboys would likely have a better starting position after the FG score, so, in reality R>Q)

then
P + (1-P)*(1-Q) > 1-Q/4

and, if my math is correct, this simply leads to

P>3/4

So, as long as the probability of conversion the "4th and 1" was greater than 3/4, going for it was the correct call (and 3/4 is likely even overstated due to the simplification Q=R).

[Tomas]

The call may have been correct, but as noted, the execution was horrific.

Sometimes in life, you get simply bailed out by (1-P)*(1-Q)

[tifosi77]

Going for it was the right call.

The play call was faulty.

[Beveridge]

Clock stops either way so that 4th down play has got to go through Ben.

[LeopardLetang]

So this is why going for the 4th down conversion was the correct call at the end:

Let
P= probability Steelers convert
Q = probability Cowboys score a TD after Steelers don't convert
R = probability after Cowboys score a TD after Steelers kick the FG instead of going for conversion

then:
Probability Steelers win after the conversion attempt:
P+ (1-P)*(1-Q)
Probability Steelers win after going for the FG (I am infllating the chances a little by assuming 100% FG success)
1-R (i.e. Cowboys don't score a TD) PLUS
R/2 (Cowboys score but don't convert 2-pt attempt) PLUS
R/4 (Game goes to OT, Steelers have 50/50 shot)

So, conversion attempt makes sense if

P+(1-P)*(1-Q) > (1-R) + R/2 + R/4
P+(1-P)*(1-Q) > 1-R/4

Let's simplify and assume Q=R (which is unfair to the conversion attempt, because Cowboys would likely have a better starting position after the FG score, so, in reality R>Q)

then
P + (1-P)*(1-Q) > 1-Q/4

and, if my math is correct, this simply leads to

P>3/4

So, as long as the probability of conversion the "4th and 1" was greater than 3/4, going for it was the correct call (and 3/4 is likely even overstated due to the simplification Q=R).

I was hoping to see this with Tomlin's confident face.