COVID-19

Troy Loney
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COVID-19

Postby Troy Loney » Tue Oct 19, 2021 10:08 am

If you go back to late august/early September, the south was doubling up any other region in cases per capita. Now they have started plummeting down as the other regions are just on the other side of the plateau of the delta surge.

Late October was when the Midwest started its winter surge last year, and then mid November is when the other four regions took off. I think this next month will tell us a lot about how this thing is going to play out.
But if you believe unvaccinated/unmasked are the core of the troubles, then any idea of "seasonality" should go out of the window. The numbers and proportions of unvaccinated&maskless people without COVID in South&Midwest are still FAR higher than those in vaccinated states, even after the big summer spike (which, naturally, had nothing to do with cold weather).

In my opinion, what this trend shows me is that COVID infections provide at least as good prevention of further spread of COVID than vaccines. I see one benefit of COVID based on network (my area of expertise): while vaccines are applied mostly to people who are freaked out by COVID (and thus likely behave in a way that would have limited further spread regardless), among unvaccinated COVID tends to hit the "most central" spreaders in the network (people who got COVID because they behave the most irresponsibly - and thus would have been likely to continue the spread). Once these "central" players achieve immunity, the spread stops fast and the whole network gets healthier.

[There are further arguments that COVID generates stronger protection than antibodies after vaccinations (which I do not feel qualified to judge). ]

Now, does it mean that Southern/Midwestern unvaccinated population was smart by saying "ef it, I'd voluntarily play the role of alternative to vaccination"? Absolutely not - especially since the unvaccinated population in those states are likely self-selected unhealthiest left tail of population (high BMI, other diseases) - so thus more likely to suffer from negative COVID consequences. But, now that the network is partially vaccinated+devoid of "superspreader nodes", the sharply declining values (especially in FL, TX, MS) shows that states with high proportions of COVID cases likely achieved good degree of herd immunity.
weird framing. seems like the only data point that is relevant is that unvaccinated people are like 99% of the fatalities.

nocera
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COVID-19

Postby nocera » Tue Oct 19, 2021 10:20 am

Unvaccinated or not, Covid has always spread mostly when indoors. Seasonality absolutely plays a role.

count2infinity
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COVID-19

Postby count2infinity » Tue Oct 19, 2021 10:27 am

What is "the trouble"?

Is "the trouble" infections? More unvaccinated people get infected than vaccinated... in PA, for instance "Between January 1, 2021 and October 4, 2021 in Pennsylvania, 91% of reported COVID-19 cases were in unvaccinated or not fully vaccinated people."

Is "the trouble" hospitalizations? More unvaccinated people get infected than vaccinated. Again in PA, "Between January 1, 2021 and October 4, 2021 in Pennsylvania, 93% of reported hospitalizations with COVID-19 as the primary diagnosis / cause of admission were in unvaccinated, not fully vaccinated, or unknown vaccination status individuals."

Is "the trouble" people dying? More unvaccinated people die than vaccinated people. PA: "Between January 1, 2021 and October 4, 2021 in Pennsylvania, 93% of COVID-19-related deaths were in unvaccinated or not fully vaccinated people."

https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/diseas ... -Data.aspx

I've checked a few other states as well and the pattern seems to hold.

I'm sure I'm either not understanding or misreading what you're trying to say here, @Tomas , but "the trouble" seems to be the unvaccinated if you go by the numbers, no matter how you define "the trouble".

Tomas
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COVID-19

Postby Tomas » Tue Oct 19, 2021 10:45 am

By "trouble" I mean this: The numbers of unvaccinated people in low-vax states are still high. If we focus only on "COVID primarily infects unvaccinated" (the "trouble") - then the wave should not be subsiding in Southern/Midwestern states - there is still too many people for COVID to attack. Because states like FL, TX, MS,... are now leaders in low COVID rates, my simple point was that the "wave" subsided (and FL numbers are lower than in super-restrictive CA) simply because COVID infections and vaccinations complement each other. And while getting infected by COVID may not be super-smart for high-risk people - now that it happened, the states are reasonably safe (especially for unvaccinated), and achieved safety faster than high-vaccinated states.

TLDR - being a vaccinated guy believing in network effects, I might have been one of the few rooting for high numbers of COVID, because I felt that the faster we eliminate the unvaccinated super-spreaders, the faster we get to a safe network. And, in fact, giving people the freedom to get vaccinated AND the freedom to get hit by COVID was the way to go.

Troy Loney
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COVID-19

Postby Troy Loney » Tue Oct 19, 2021 10:49 am

By "trouble" I mean this: The numbers of unvaccinated people in low-vax states are still high. If we focus only on "COVID primarily infects unvaccinated" (the "trouble") - then the wave should not be subsiding in Southern/Midwestern states - there is still too many people for COVID to attack. Because states like FL, TX, MS,... are now leaders in low COVID rates, my simple point was that the "wave" subsided (and FL numbers are lower than in super-restrictive CA) simply because COVID infections and vaccinations complement each other. And while getting infected by COVID may not be super-smart for high-risk people - now that it happened, the states are reasonably safe (especially for unvaccinated), and achieved safety faster than high-vaccinated states.

TLDR - being a vaccinated guy believing in network effects, I might have been one of the few rooting for high numbers of COVID, because I felt that the faster we eliminate the unvaccinated super-spreaders, the faster we get to a safe network. And, in fact, giving people the freedom to get vaccinated AND the freedom to get hit by COVID was the way to go.
yep, still weird.

This is conflating infections with fatalities. So infection rates are up in the northern states compared to the southern superspreaders. Deaths and hospitalizations are concentrated in the unvaccinated pockets of those states.

NTP66
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COVID-19

Postby NTP66 » Tue Oct 19, 2021 10:51 am

Who cares who it primarily infects anymore? I thought the only data that mattered was hospitalizations and deaths? Let's compare those figures.

nocera
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COVID-19

Postby nocera » Tue Oct 19, 2021 10:52 am

Image
Last edited by nocera on Tue Oct 19, 2021 10:55 am, edited 1 time in total.

count2infinity
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COVID-19

Postby count2infinity » Tue Oct 19, 2021 10:55 am

So, let the vax, vax... let the dumb dumbs be dumb dumbs. I mean... I guess?

Tomas
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COVID-19

Postby Tomas » Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:07 am

So, let the vax, vax... let the dumb dumbs be dumb dumbs. I mean... I guess?
That was basically my whole point - with added "and let us not create barriers that would prevent dumb to do dumb things - it only delays the inevitable - and prevents us to achieve the great state of the safe network sooner". (Looking at you, CA! )

Troy Loney
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COVID-19

Postby Troy Loney » Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:13 am

Also, FL isn't a "low vax state".

I am not sure it makes sense to do this comparison strictly across state lines. This is the same urban/rural thing. The delta wave has basically just crushed unvaccinated parts of the country, and because of seasonality, it was mostly concentrated in the really hot places.

NAN
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COVID-19

Postby NAN » Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:16 am

I lost track of what is going on here.

Troy Loney
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COVID-19

Postby Troy Loney » Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:17 am

Tomas is promoting a theory that herd immunity through infection is better than vaccinations.

shmenguin
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COVID-19

Postby shmenguin » Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:35 am

Tomas is promoting a theory that herd immunity through infection is better than vaccinations.
He’s saying hurry up and die, you anti-science muppets. And take COVID with you. Or at least I think that’s it. Which I would support…except if you have a non-self inflicted medical emergency, your potentially not going to have a hospital bed.

Keeping health systems going is the only concern at this point, I think.

King Colby
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COVID-19

Postby King Colby » Tue Oct 19, 2021 12:00 pm

Basically my summary of this discussion is that you're more likely right now to get covid if you haven't had it before than if you had, regardless of where you live and regardless of your vaccination status.

Which I think we all agree with.

Which leads me back to c2i's point that "the trouble" isn't infections, but health systems.

If your health systems are able to provide services to people who need and deserve them (i.e. not unvaccinated coviders) then go forth and prosper. You should know through monitoring new case counts and vaccination rates in your area whether there is an impending threat to your health systems.

I feel like this is current state though, right?

tifosi77
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COVID-19

Postby tifosi77 » Tue Oct 19, 2021 12:16 pm

Rooting for the spread of a communicable disease. Infection prevents spread.

We've awoken grunts.

Tomas
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COVID-19

Postby Tomas » Tue Oct 19, 2021 12:33 pm

Tomas is promoting a theory that herd immunity throquickly and ection is better than vaccinations.
No. Tomas is a realistic person who knows that a certain part of population will not get vaccinated no matter what. If we understand that fact, it is better not to restrict those people by lockdowns, mask mandates, etc. and instead let them close the loophole to herd immunity ASAP by getting infected quickly, while removing the bad players (those with the highest mass infection potential first). The combination of infection and vaccinations works the best for the goal of creating safe community.

Troy Loney
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COVID-19

Postby Troy Loney » Tue Oct 19, 2021 12:39 pm

Tomas is promoting a theory that herd immunity throquickly and ection is better than vaccinations.
No. Tomas is a realistic person who knows that a certain part of population will not get vaccinated no matter what. If we understand that fact, it is better not to restrict those people by lockdowns, mask mandates, etc. and instead let them close the loophole to herd immunity ASAP by getting infected quickly, while removing the bad players (those with the highest mass infection potential first). The combination of infection and vaccinations works the best for the goal of creating safe community.
1. What lockdowns?
2. We should limit mask mandates to risky places, like schools.

Tomas
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COVID-19

Postby Tomas » Tue Oct 19, 2021 12:50 pm

Tomas is promoting a theory that herd immunity throquickly and ection is better than vaccinations.
No. Tomas is a realistic person who knows that a certain part of population will not get vaccinated no matter what. If we understand that fact, it is better not to restrict those people by lockdowns, mask mandates, etc. and instead let them close the loophole to herd immunity ASAP by getting infected quickly, while removing the bad players (those with the highest mass infection potential first). The combination of infection and vaccinations works the best for the goal of creating safe community.
1. What lockdowns?
2. We should limit mask mandates to risky places, like schools.
Latvia just announced lockdown yesterday. Four freaking weeks.

And could not disagree more on masks in schools.

Troy Loney
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COVID-19

Postby Troy Loney » Tue Oct 19, 2021 12:51 pm

Ok

NTP66
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COVID-19

Postby NTP66 » Tue Oct 19, 2021 1:00 pm

Source of the post And could not disagree more on masks in schools.
Image

nocera
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COVID-19

Postby nocera » Tue Oct 19, 2021 1:01 pm

Well how moist are the masks?

count2infinity
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Postby count2infinity » Tue Oct 19, 2021 1:11 pm

I was taking to a guy at work today. He said he had covid back in March. Lost all taste and smell until about a month and a half, two months ago.

He got it back, but he said coffee smells like gasoline. Beer and bread tastes like vomit. I can’t imagine if that happened to me. That would be more taxing on me than any lockdown or mask mandate would.

King Colby
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COVID-19

Postby King Colby » Tue Oct 19, 2021 1:42 pm

Has he tried filling his morning mug with gasoline to see if it tastes like coffee?

CBear3
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COVID-19

Postby CBear3 » Tue Oct 19, 2021 1:55 pm

Source of the post And could not disagree more on masks in schools.
Image
Shyster already showed the low impact positive cases have on the younger generation awhile back (hospitalizations and deaths).
At this point, the reason for masks in school feels like it is more an effect to prevent excessive absenteeism than a worry about children's physical health.

I mean, I tell my kids to wear them. Even when they became optional at school in the late spring. Even when they're in dance class that doesn't technically require it. The "irrational" fear is that because of their age the chances of them having an unknown health condition may be greater which could turn a run of the mill COVID infection into a catastrophic one.

Troy Loney
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COVID-19

Postby Troy Loney » Tue Oct 19, 2021 2:00 pm

Source of the post And could not disagree more on masks in schools.
Image
Shyster already showed the low impact positive cases have on the younger generation awhile back (hospitalizations and deaths).
At this point, the reason for masks in school feels like it is more an effect to prevent excessive absenteeism than a worry about children's physical health.

I mean, I tell my kids to wear them. Even when they became optional at school in the late spring. Even when they're in dance class that doesn't technically require it. The "irrational" fear is that because of their age the chances of them having an unknown health condition may be greater which could turn a run of the mill COVID infection into a catastrophic one.
Additional protection for the teachers.

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