Investing, Stock Market and Retirement Planning Thread

[columbia]

Chinese investment opportunities scare me

That concern is priced in (by every potential investor).

Having said that, I don't own anything that currently will be adding these companies.

[ExPatriatePen]

Chinese investment opportunities scare me

That concern is priced in (by every potential investor).

Having said that, I don't own anything that currently will be adding these companies.

Not Necessarily.

[columbia]

Chinese investment opportunities scare me

That concern is priced in (by every potential investor).

Having said that, I don't own anything that currently will be adding these companies.

Not Necessarily.

So you think you have a better feel for this than Mr. Market?
If so, what leads you to believe that?

[ExPatriatePen]

Chinese investment opportunities scare me

That concern is priced in (by every potential investor).

Having said that, I don't own anything that currently will be adding these companies.

Not Necessarily.

So you think you have a better feel for this than Mr. Market?
If so, what leads you to believe that?

The market doesn't always get it right does it?
I have hedge funds and private equity firms as clients and customers. They're an amazing bunch, but they make epic failures at times. The market is pretty accurate, but often times they get the balance sheets right and the macro economic trends wrong.

See also: Financial Crisis 2008

[columbia]

Again, what is your unique information?

What happens, happens..but you're predicting, well, something. I'm not sure what.

[ExPatriatePen]

Again, what is your unique information?

What happens, happens..but you're predicting, well, something. I'm not sure what.

It's folly to make exacting predictions of such complex functions as intricate foreign equity markets and foreign economies. That's why they've even coined a phrase for it. "Black Swan"

However, I'm willing to state that whatever happens, it will be, in part, caused by the central governments attempt to "goose" the economy accompanied by a lack of mature financial controls.

I'm almost embarrassed to say that though because the statement is both vague and obvious.

[columbia]

Hence the risk being priced in.

[Reveutopique]

Chinese investment opportunities scare me

That concern is priced in (by every potential investor).

Having said that, I don't own anything that currently will be adding these companies.

Not Necessarily.

So you think you have a better feel for this than Mr. Market?
If so, what leads you to believe that?

The market doesn't always get it right does it?
I have hedge funds and private equity firms as clients and customers. They're an amazing bunch, but they make epic failures at times. The market is pretty accurate, but often times they get the balance sheets right and the macro economic trends wrong.

See also: Financial Crisis 2008

This is sort of off topic and weird but what was your impression of hedge fund people? Are they approachable people? Are they always busy and engrossed in their work? I would really appreciate any info on what kind of people hedge fund people are if you are at all inclined to talk about it.

I've been trying to google hedge funds and going on wso, youtube and investopedia.

But I actually haven't gotten many answers except for everything people already generally know.

[ExPatriatePen]

That concern is priced in (by every potential investor).

Having said that, I don't own anything that currently will be adding these companies.

Not Necessarily.

So you think you have a better feel for this than Mr. Market?
If so, what leads you to believe that?

The market doesn't always get it right does it?
I have hedge funds and private equity firms as clients and customers. They're an amazing bunch, but they make epic failures at times. The market is pretty accurate, but often times they get the balance sheets right and the macro economic trends wrong.

See also: Financial Crisis 2008

This is sort of off topic and weird but what was your impression of hedge fund people? Are they approachable people? Are they always busy and engrossed in their work? I would really appreciate any info on what kind of people hedge fund people are if you are at all inclined to talk about it.

I've been trying to google hedge funds and going on wso, youtube and investopedia.

But I actually haven't gotten many answers except for everything people already generally know.

Hey Rev... I've got a million and one things going on today. But your question deserves an answer, and yes working with the hedge fund folks is different than any other sector I've worked with.

I'll fill in more later, but if I had to describe them using three words it would be: secretive, superior and hidebound.

[columbia]

For the heck of it, I signed up for a monthly investment in a taxable account through Betterment.
https://www.betterment.com/portfolio/

They set up a glide path (like the Vanguard Target date funds), but handle all of the tax loss harvesting automatically.

One you get past $10,000, it's barely more expensive than a Vanguard target account, which would eventually give you a lot more ordinary income tax liability from bonds.

[columbia]

Here's a good comparison of Betterment and Wealthfront:
http://investorjunkie.com/36355/betterm ... t-compare/

[ExPatriatePen]

Hence the risk being priced in.

Or not

http://www.theguardian.com/business/blo ... rgin-calls

Chinese stocks had doubled between last November and mid-June, to the delight of a fast-growing army of retail investors. In echoes of the dotcom bubble in the US, much of the speculation, fuelled by borrowing, has been on technology stocks. But now shares across all sectors are tumbling. After another punishing week, and despite a surprise move last week by the central bank to cut interest rates, shares are now down nearly 30% from their peak less than four weeks ago.

[dodint]

Anybody deal with metals? My Dad is a guy that likes to give gifts that are learning exercises. He gave us silver for Christmas in the form of silver US quarters minted prior to 1965. He wants us to sell it off when the value increases, not keep them as a heirloom or anything. Price of silver has held around $15.75 all year.

Am I looking at holding this stuff for months or years?

[grunthy]

Anybody deal with metals? My Dad is a guy that likes to give gifts that are learning exercises. He gave us silver for Christmas in the form of silver US quarters minted prior to 1965. He wants us to sell it off when the value increases, not keep them as a heirloom or anything. Price of silver has held around $15.75 all year.

Am I looking at holding this stuff for months or years?

Depending on the coin they might be worth more than the silver actually in the coin.

[dodint]

He knows enough about coins not to make that mistake, but I suppose it could be fun to research them anyway.

[Tomas]

For the heck of it, I signed up for a monthly investment in a taxable account through Betterment.
https://www.betterment.com/portfolio/

They set up a glide path (like the Vanguard Target date funds), but handle all of the tax loss harvesting automatically.

One you get past $10,000, it's barely more expensive than a Vanguard target account, which would eventually give you a lot more ordinary income tax liability from bonds.

I actually have a friend - a cancer specialist medical doctor - who is at her work pretty much all the time, and haven't had any time to set up any investment strategy for her (what I think vast) financial fortune. I am hesitant to give her my advice (I am afraid friendship and monetary issues don't mingle well), but the two companies you mentioned (Betterment and Wealthfront) may actually be a good option for her. One question - do they give you the suggested portfolio allocation "for free" before you sign up (that is, would she have the opportunity to follow the model allocation on her own, by setting up her own Vanguard account) or does she have to sign up/pay first (or even worse yet, is the portfolio allocation a black box)?

Thanks!!

[columbia]

For the heck of it, I signed up for a monthly investment in a taxable account through Betterment.
https://www.betterment.com/portfolio/

They set up a glide path (like the Vanguard Target date funds), but handle all of the tax loss harvesting automatically.

One you get past $10,000, it's barely more expensive than a Vanguard target account, which would eventually give you a lot more ordinary income tax liability from bonds.

I actually have a friend - a cancer specialist medical doctor - who is at her work pretty much all the time, and haven't had any time to set up any investment strategy for her (what I think vast) financial fortune. I am hesitant to give her my advice (I am afraid friendship and monetary issues don't mingle well), but the two companies you mentioned (Betterment and Wealthfront) may actually be a good option for her. One question - do they give you the suggested portfolio allocation "for free" before you sign up (that is, would she have the opportunity to follow the model allocation on her own, by setting up her own Vanguard account) or does she have to sign up/pay first (or even worse yet, is the portfolio allocation a black box)?

Thanks!!

Quite transparent ahead of time:

› US Total Stock Market: VTI
› US Large-Cap Value: VTV
› US Mid-Cap Value: VOE
› US Small-Cap Value: VBR
› Developed Markets: VEA
› Emerging Markets: VWO

They use munis, corporates, vanguard hedged international and emerging markets for bonds in taxable accounts.

One important correction to my OP is that they - currently - do not have an automatic glide path, but that's as simple as clicking the allocation button, selecting a lower percentage of equities and hitting submit.

[ExPatriatePen]

From jun 4th, 2014:

Chinese investment opportunities scare me

That concern is priced in (by every potential investor).

Having said that, I don't own anything that currently will be adding these companies.

Not Necessarily.

So you think you have a better feel for this than Mr. Market?
If so, what leads you to believe that?

The market doesn't always get it right does it?
I have hedge funds and private equity firms as clients and customers. They're an amazing bunch, but they make epic failures at times. The market is pretty accurate, but often times they get the balance sheets right and the macro economic trends wrong.

See also: Financial Crisis 2008

Again, what is your unique information?

What happens, happens..but you're predicting, well, something. I'm not sure what.

It's folly to make exacting predictions of such complex functions as intricate foreign equity markets and foreign economies. That's why they've even coined a phrase for it. "Black Swan"

However, I'm willing to state that whatever happens, it will be, in part, caused by the central governments attempt to "goose" the economy accompanied by a lack of mature financial controls.

I'm almost embarrassed to say that though because the statement is both vague and obvious.

From today:

Hence the risk being priced in.

Or not

http://www.theguardian.com/business/blo ... rgin-calls

Chinese stocks had doubled between last November and mid-June, to the delight of a fast-growing army of retail investors. In echoes of the dotcom bubble in the US, much of the speculation, fuelled by borrowing, has been on technology stocks. But now shares across all sectors are tumbling. After another punishing week, and despite a surprise move last week by the central bank to cut interest rates, shares are now down nearly 30% from their peak less than four weeks ago.

How about those Chinese markets? Eh?

I guess all that risk was "priced in". (Heavy sarcasm)

Black swans baby. I called it the day it peaked, and now we're down so far that 25% of those stocks stopped trading at some point today.

So much for efficient markets theory.

http://money.cnn.com/2015/07/07/investi ... p-trading/

[ExPatriatePen]

YEE HAAAAA !!!

NYSE halts trading !!! (System glitches)

[dodint]

First the Chinese, now the NYSE. It's happening.

*dun*
*dun*
*dunnnnn*

[ExPatriatePen]

Nothing in this attributed to structural problems with the markets themselves but rather a technological failure.

But it's a significant event.

Buy Fireye

[dodint]

That's what they want you to think.

Hey, you know that gateway that has worked since forever? It broke overnight, the same time that China **** the bed. SEEMS LEGIT.

*tinfoil hat*

[tifosi77]

A friend just told me that United Airlines' personnel intranet is called Skynet.

[columbia]

Not that I'm worried or care about anything less than 40-50 year total returns, but...a nice 20% drop holds a certain appeal. The people freaking out probably did so in 2011, which was a terrible time to sell.

[ExPatriatePen]

Not that I'm worried or care about anything less than 40-50 year total returns, but...a nice 20% drop holds a certain appeal. The people freaking out probably did so in 2011, which was a terrible time to sell.

20% drop in what?