Politics And Current Events

NTP66
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Postby NTP66 » Sun May 02, 2021 6:52 pm

:lol:


Faftorial
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Postby Faftorial » Sun May 02, 2021 7:00 pm

Still at 70% in new CNN poll @King Colby:
Although there is no evidence of fraud or wrongdoing in the 2020 election, many still say that Biden did not legitimately win enough votes to become president. The poll suggests the share of Americans who believe that falsehood has held roughly steady since just before he took office in January at 30%. Those doubts are concentrated among Republicans, 70% of whom say they do not think Biden won enough votes to be president. But the share of Republicans who falsely say there is solid evidence that Biden did not win has dropped from 58% in January to 50% now.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/30/politics ... index.html

NTP66
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Postby NTP66 » Sun May 02, 2021 7:06 pm

Image

King Colby
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Postby King Colby » Sun May 02, 2021 11:01 pm

Still at 70% in new CNN poll
Although there is no evidence of fraud or wrongdoing in the 2020 election, many still say that Biden did not legitimately win enough votes to become president. The poll suggests the share of Americans who believe that falsehood has held roughly steady since just before he took office in January at 30%. Those doubts are concentrated among Republicans, 70% of whom say they do not think Biden won enough votes to be president. But the share of Republicans who falsely say there is solid evidence that Biden did not win has dropped from 58% in January to 50% now.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/30/politics ... index.html
70% of the 251 Republicans (yes, two hundred and fifty one) who responded to the telephonic survey (yes telephonic survey).

Seems like a reasonable cross section to extrapolate to the whole country, and not at all a click bait headline

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Postby King Colby » Sun May 02, 2021 11:10 pm

Honestly, ask yourself who's more likely to answer a telephonic survey consisting of those questions. A guy like me trying to live my regular life that is negligibly impacted by the political party of the POTUS, or some Trump-shrine having maniac who hates the libs. And then tell me if that 70% number is applicable.

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Postby Faftorial » Sun May 02, 2021 11:12 pm

Honestly, ask yourself who's more likely to answer a telephonic survey consisting of those questions. A guy like me trying to live my regular life that is negligibly impacted by the political party of the POTUS, or some Trump-shrine having maniac who hates the libs. And then tell me if that 70% number is applicable.
You're not paying attention because Liz Cheney is about to pushed out (and she should be but for other reasons) of her leadership position.

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Postby King Colby » Sun May 02, 2021 11:18 pm

Honestly, ask yourself who's more likely to answer a telephonic survey consisting of those questions. A guy like me trying to live my regular life that is negligibly impacted by the political party of the POTUS, or some Trump-shrine having maniac who hates the libs. And then tell me if that 70% number is applicable.
You're not paying attention because Liz Cheney is about to pushed out (and she should be but for other reasons) of her leadership position.
I'm not. You picked a fight with me. I told you that poll is a joke. That's it.

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Postby Faftorial » Sun May 02, 2021 11:23 pm

Honestly, ask yourself who's more likely to answer a telephonic survey consisting of those questions. A guy like me trying to live my regular life that is negligibly impacted by the political party of the POTUS, or some Trump-shrine having maniac who hates the libs. And then tell me if that 70% number is applicable.
You're not paying attention because Liz Cheney is about to pushed out (and she should be but for other reasons) of her leadership position.
I'm not. You picked a fight with me. I told you that poll is a joke. That's it.
:lol:

I saw that new poll and remembered that you scoffed at the idea that 70% of the GOP still believed the election was stolen.

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Postby count2infinity » Mon May 03, 2021 5:56 am

Where would you guess the number is,KC? Percent of Republicans who think Trump actually won? 10? 30? 50?

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Postby shmenguin » Mon May 03, 2021 7:28 am

Every poll Ive seen on this is 50-70% over the last 5 months. At some poInt, sample size isn’t gonna play anymore.

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Postby King Colby » Mon May 03, 2021 7:51 am

Where would you guess the number is,KC? Percent of Republicans who think Trump actually won? 10? 30? 50?
I have absolutely no **** idea. No frame of reference. I just know the trumpiest of Trumpers I know don't even think the election was stolen so 70% seems pretty dishonest, especially if the trump card (ha) is 251 telephonic survey responses...

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Postby King Colby » Mon May 03, 2021 7:52 am

Every poll Ive seen on this is 50-70% over the last 5 months. At some poInt, sample size isn’t gonna play anymore.
Who is more likely to respond to that survey:

1. A normal person
2. A whacko MAGA disciple with a bone to pick

One character answer, 1 or 2.

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Postby Viva la Ben » Mon May 03, 2021 7:56 am

Maybe your friends aren’t comfortable with sharing that idea with you KC

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Postby King Colby » Mon May 03, 2021 7:57 am

I dont like identity politics and I don't feel personally responsible for far right thinking. The only reason I am even responding to this is because it's like you guys WANT this to be the case so you can chalk up another W. You can't just wish things into existence...

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Postby shmenguin » Mon May 03, 2021 7:58 am

Every poll Ive seen on this is 50-70% over the last 5 months. At some poInt, sample size isn’t gonna play anymore.
Who is more likely to respond to that survey:

1. A normal person
2. A whacko MAGA disciple with a bone to pick

One character answer, 1 or 2.
2 - because that’s today’s GOP. Extra characters needed. Apologies.

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Postby count2infinity » Mon May 03, 2021 8:00 am

You can't just wish things into existence...
Who is the one ignoring all sources if information here?

It’s similar to freddy’s “conservatives are fine with getting vaccinated because the hundreds of trump voters I know are vaccinated.”

Your personal experience is fine, but evidence suggests that’s not how the rest of the world feels/works.

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Postby shmenguin » Mon May 03, 2021 8:01 am

Aside from the evidence in the polls, that sitting congressmen can still not say plainly that Biden won...that tells you what these congressmen believe to be true about the majority of their voters.

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Postby Faftorial » Mon May 03, 2021 8:03 am

Aside from the evidence in the polls, that sitting congressmen can still not say plainly that Biden won...that tells you what these congressmen believe to be true about the majority of their voters.
More than just 1 congressmen.

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Postby King Colby » Mon May 03, 2021 8:06 am

You can't just wish things into existence...
Who is the one ignoring all sources if information here?

It’s similar to freddy’s “conservatives are fine with getting vaccinated because the hundreds of trump voters I know are vaccinated.”

Your personal experience is fine, but evidence suggests that’s not how the rest of the world feels/works.
Not only am I not ignoring the sources of information, but I'm actively responding to them. Faftorial tagged me in a CNN survey as a told-ya-so and it appeared... well, hilariously flawed. I know you can admit that one, as a science guy.

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Postby count2infinity » Mon May 03, 2021 8:09 am

I’m not up to date in statistics of opinion poll literature. Please fill me in.

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Postby King Colby » Mon May 03, 2021 8:10 am

Every poll Ive seen on this is 50-70% over the last 5 months. At some poInt, sample size isn’t gonna play anymore.
Who is more likely to respond to that survey:

1. A normal person
2. A whacko MAGA disciple with a bone to pick

One character answer, 1 or 2.
2 - because that’s today’s GOP. Extra characters needed. Apologies.
That wasn't the question. You answered who you think is more likely to be surveyed.

The question is... between 1 and 2, who is more likely to answer the survey and not hang up the phone.

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Postby Troy Loney » Mon May 03, 2021 8:21 am

Response bias is definitely a thing, and it definitely makes using single polls to prove a point fruitless. That's why aggregating polls, like 538 does, is more predictive.

Overall, I think this is one of those things where it makes no sense to try and glean the true position of the GOP base on something. The question is really,

- who actually believes this
- who pretends to believe it to gin up the MAGA chuds
- who pretends to believe this to pwn the libs
- who doesn't care
- who actively pushes back against the false narrative

Colby, i think the disconnect is that you are definitely attune to the nuance between 1-4, and I can see your point. But this kind of goes back to the discussion a few weeks ago about the direction of the GOP. I think the 5th group should be the prominent one, and the "don't care" should care and move to that group.

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Postby King Colby » Mon May 03, 2021 8:37 am

Response bias is definitely a thing, and it definitely makes using single polls to prove a point fruitless. That's why aggregating polls, like 538 does, is more predictive.

Overall, I think this is one of those things where it makes no sense to try and glean the true position of the GOP base on something. The question is really,

- who actually believes this
- who pretends to believe it to gin up the MAGA chuds
- who pretends to believe this to pwn the libs
- who doesn't care
- who actively pushes back against the false narrative

Colby, i think the disconnect is that you are definitely attune to the nuance between 1-4, and I can see your point. But this kind of goes back to the discussion a few weeks ago about the direction of the GOP. I think the 5th group should be the prominent one, and the "don't care" should care and move to that group.
Yep. Thanks Troy, this is a smart way of summarizing my overall thoughts on the matter

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Postby NAN » Mon May 03, 2021 8:46 am

Response bias is definitely a thing, and it definitely makes using single polls to prove a point fruitless. That's why aggregating polls, like 538 does, is more predictive.

Overall, I think this is one of those things where it makes no sense to try and glean the true position of the GOP base on something. The question is really,

- who actually believes this
- who pretends to believe it to gin up the MAGA chuds
- who pretends to believe this to pwn the libs
- who doesn't care
- who actively pushes back against the false narrative

Colby, i think the disconnect is that you are definitely attune to the nuance between 1-4, and I can see your point. But this kind of goes back to the discussion a few weeks ago about the direction of the GOP. I think the 5th group should be the prominent one, and the "don't care" should care and move to that group.
:thumb:

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Postby NAN » Mon May 03, 2021 8:47 am

Every poll Ive seen on this is 50-70% over the last 5 months. At some poInt, sample size isn’t gonna play anymore.
Who is more likely to respond to that survey:

1. A normal person
2. A whacko MAGA disciple with a bone to pick

One character answer, 1 or 2.
2 - because that’s today’s GOP. Extra characters needed. Apologies.
That wasn't the question. You answered who you think is more likely to be surveyed.

The question is... between 1 and 2, who is more likely to answer the survey and not hang up the phone.
I mean I guess if you asked the 74m Trump voters if it is a fraud 52m will say yes.

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