Fifth Avenue Forum

I predicted 71-91, can the Pirates win 3 more games out of 11?

Summary of our predictions:

Delusional optimists:

slappy: 87-75
willeyeam: 87-75
Columbia: 84-78
Freddy pt.2: 83-79
c2i: 83-79
TL:

If Cole, Taillon and Nova make 80 total starts, then they win 90 games again. If not, then they'll be in the 75-80 win total again

Jaded pessimists:

Freddy pt. 1: 80-82
Dickie: 75-87
robbiestoupe: 74-88
Morkle: 71-91

.450 winning percentage gives them a current projection of 73 wins, which would require a 5-6 record to close out the year. I expect them to finish with less. They've gone 10-25 since they last had a .500 record on August 11th. It honestly wouldn't shock me if they don't make it to 71 wins.

I heard this discussed on Da Fan a day or two after Glasnow's last disastrous start, but prior to that start Bill Brink got this quote from Glasnow:

“I went down and it was kind of a wakeup call,” Glasnow said Sunday. “Just kind of a whole changeup of mechanics and switched everything up. Fastball velo went up and I had two off-speed pitches, and it’s a lot easier to pitch with three pitches than half of one.”

Half a pitch. By his own measure Glasnow had half of a god damn pitch that he felt confident in and comfortable throwing yet the assclowns that run this organization spent months spouting the "nothing left to accomplish in AAA" mantra while the guy had zero confidence in himself and his pitching ability. Unreal.

I think less than 75 wins is absolutely disappointing and what a quick fall from where they were a few short years ago. GMs typically don't make it past this point, best management teams in baseball or not.

It's hard to see them being any good next season unless they're willing to make a significant move or two over the offseason. Whether that's taking advantage of the protected pick and adding a FA (3B?) or significant trades.

I'm hoping that the team limping to the finish at least forces the FO to not fall back on bringing most of the same roster back next year and hoping for internal improvement/better health. There's some talent here but as currently constructed the ceiling is probably flirting with or being a few games over .500.

We all know they aren't making any significant trades and any improvement at third base seems unlikely. So they can pick one of two options: hope for internal improvement (probably won't work) or just blow the whole damn thing up and trade anything that isn't bolted down. There is no sense in trotting a team out there that will have a ceiling of a few games over 500. Either contend or suck really bad.

Speaking of sucking really bad, SRod is hitting 162/262/284/546 since his return. If their plan is to use him as an everyday player next year they are insane.

I assume those predictions were made before the Kang news, and definitely before Marte.

It's hard to see them being any good next season unless they're willing to make a significant move or two over the offseason. Whether that's taking advantage of the protected pick and adding a FA (3B?) or significant trades.

I'm hoping that the team limping to the finish at least forces the FO to not fall back on bringing most of the same roster back next year and hoping for internal improvement/better health. There's some talent here but as currently constructed the ceiling is probably flirting with or being a few games over .500.

We all know they aren't making any significant trades and any improvement at third base seems unlikely. So they can pick one of two options: hope for internal improvement (probably won't work) or just blow the whole damn thing up and trade anything that isn't bolted down. There is no sense in trotting a team out there that will have a ceiling of a few games over 500. Either contend or suck really bad.

I started typing out that they'd probably be better off just trading Cutch, Cole, JHay and a few others but decided against it. If faced with adding talent (bold move), blowing it up (bold move) or keeping the status quo (easy), we know exactly the route they'll take.

easy

so josh bell has had a pretty good year?

so josh bell has had a pretty good year?

He's had a bad month or so. His OPS has dropped from .840 to .800 since late August. He's probably tiring out, but he stayed healthy and strong most of the year, so that's encouraging.

Yeah, that was a good column. I didn't want to trigger anyone by posting DK columns.

Like him or not, that is an ugly but accurate fact-driven account of just how bad things are with the Pirates. I've pretty much stopped paying attention too, and I had no idea it was just that bad.

Focusing on NH is taking your eye off the ball.

Focusing on NH is taking your eye off the ball.

"Huntington is the longest tenured GM in the National League" was a big-time eyebrow raiser to me. Nutting likes a good, obedient GM that will parrot the company line and make do with what he has.

IDC, I like DK's Buccos columns and find them to be cathartic.

Does anyone really trust this FO to attempt to rebuild a contender after blowing it up?

The Pirates slipped into the 7th pick last night. Half game clear of the A's, Padres and Braves. 1.5 out of the 6th spot and 2.5 out of 5th.

6th selection seems like their ceiling at this point.

IDC, I like DK's Buccos columns and find them to be cathartic.

Does anyone really trust this FO to attempt to rebuild a contender after blowing it up?

I'd trust them to build it back up, they've proven once they can do it. It's once their within striking distance that they've shown they're either not capable of making a few last moves to polish the roster off or unwilling to spend a few extra million to make it happen. Probably some combination of the two.

They're good at scrambling to try and collect a bunch of assets, that's a good way to turn crap into something on the fringe of competitiveness. However, once they actually have a good roster that's a poor way to try and round it out.

I was digging for something and ran across this. I always forget that the Cathedral was built before the demise of Forbes Field.

This is obviously conjecture, but the reason the team quit is fairly obvious. We all knew this team didn't have the horses to compete with the cubs, cards, and even brewers. And the front office knew it, too. And lets face it, the players knew it. But at the trade deadline, instead of rolling the dice and saying screw it, lets give it a shot, the pirates elected to do nothing. They were within shouting distance of the division at the deadline, and the front office quit. Why wouldn't the players quit, too? This is the second time in two years that the players have had a front office quit on them at the trade deadline. Which brings this gentleman back to a point that has been repeated: If you aren't going to try and win now, try to win later. The pirates have done neither, and they are now stuck with a 90 loss team full of unhappy vets and questionable young talent. plant/grow.

As this gentleman has said before, this year's trade deadline was like a 4th and 4 on a the 39 yard line and electing to punt.

I think Beerman alluded to an important point. NH can definitely acquire usable pieces from the junk pile, but he definitely failed in efforts to supplement a competitive core. If we're committed to NH, they have to either go all in with this core, or blow it up. McCutchen's bouceback happened, but he's not close to the MVP candidate that he was.

I know that i've advocated that they've been victim to unforeseen happenings that have derailed the last two season, and I still think that's true. But while they've been "unlucky", that doesn't dismiss the fact that the core group that they are entering 2018 with right now can not be counted on to compete. If they aren't capable of making a significant addition to the lineup then they should blow it up. Treading water with the outstanding questions in the OF, 3B and C would be demoralizing. That's not to mention potential weakening performances from Mercer and Harrison. I think NH can certainly say that the staff has the pieces in place, so it's really going to come down to his ability to upgrade the offense.

Vehemently disagree re: the pitching staff. The staff does not have the pieces in place. Taillon is still years behind schedule. Cole hasn't gotten better in any single effing area since his MLB debut on June 11, 2013. Who the hell knows what is in store with Nova. Kuhl can't get out of the 6th effing inning. Williams is fine. But who the hell cares if the 5th starter is fine? Brault might be ok, but again, who the hell cares if he is ok? Glasnow is lol. Keller is still a year or two out (depending on if/when he gets injured). If Kingham gets another option year due to medical reasons, he won't start in the 2018 rotation.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/team/stats/pitc ... order/true

The Pirates are in the top half of the league in runs allowed. Cole, Taillon and Nova all started the year strong and cratered as the team became disinterested. If you take out Glasnow's 50 ER allowed in limited time, this would be a top 10 staff in runs allowed. I don't think a high profile acquisition is needed to bolster the staff, I think they will be a decent run prevention squad.

The pitching is weird, they're definitely more effective than they look just watching them. They're all capable of and probably will put up some real duds but each is also capable of putting up some really good starts. One thing that makes them seem less inspiring is the lack of a guy you can really count on. This group gives you the feeling that on any random turn through the rotation you have no idea who's going to be the best/most consistent on that given week. In the end they all put up numbers that are fine but how they get there isn't exactly a confidence builder.

I think they can definitely get by with this rotation but the offense needs significant upgrades in that instance.