NFL

[JC2]

[mikey]

Devin Hester got in the HOF ahead of Antonio Gates...?

[skullman80]

Patrick Willis got into the HOF. Well deserved. Best LB the 49ers ever had. As good as Warner and Greenlaw are Willis and Bowman were better.

[shafnutz05]

Devin Hester got in the HOF ahead of Antonio Gates...?

Yeah, really dumb. Gates is, at worst, the third or fourth greatest TE in history.

[Dickie Dunn]

https://www.ftnfantasy.com/articles/FTN ... ard-ballot

Someone needs to give this nerd another swirly.

[LITT]

hester changed the game. any time he touched the ball you had to watch.

[genoscoif]

I get that the award is basically meaningless (unless of course you have a bonus/incentive in your contract), but I just can't figure out how someone could look at stat lines like the ones posted and put Myles Garret over TJ and Micah. He's beat by the other 2 in almost every category. Who are these 50 AP writers, and what exactly do any of them 'use' to put Garret over either of the other 2? Does he get extra points because he has to play for Cleveland?

[count2infinity]

It's gotta be some sort of goofy advanced analytics right? Like others have said, the basic stat lines don't tell the story. Must be something else.

[LITT]

i doubt the AP writers watch every game and people talked about garrett being DPOY before the year started and they 1) cant look like they dont know what they are talking about and 2) had enough splash highlights that you could sell it

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

I'd guess the voters will tell you the stats don't matter but that's obviously a little silly. stats should matter to some degree

Garrett was a steamroller the first half of the season but disappeared in the second half. In fact, the lost production was so stark I feel like that would've hurt his chances because he wasn't seemingly doing anything

[genoscoif]

https://www.ftnfantasy.com/articles/FTN ... ard-ballot

Someone needs to give this nerd another swirly.

This is prime 'I'm smart. Like really smart. So smart that I don't expect you to understand. But, yeah, I'm like reeaaallly smart. So you should, like, totally listen to me because I use numbers and stuff.'

[willeyeam]

Here's how I see it. LeBron could have won the MVP almost every year for a 10-12 year stretch, but only had a few. They're not gonna just give it to the same guy every year, it's just how it is. TJ's bar is higher, he has to have a ridiculous, record breaking year, or some weak years by contenders. Any time he just has a decent year by his standards and someone else has an excellent year, they're going to get the votes. Not that it's right, but that's how it is

[DigitalGypsy66]

Anyone else think it was kind of a dodint move to not attend the ceremony? He could've been there to get his sacks award and support Cam.

[Troy Loney]

I have never thought something less

[nocera]

Anyone else think it was kind of a dodint move to not attend the ceremony? He could've been there to get his sacks award and support Cam.

No. I care about this as much as I cared about Sid skipping the all star draft. Both events are pointless.

[mikey]

hester changed the game. any time he touched the ball you had to watch.

Yup, that one time every three hours for almost five seasons (or whatever) was really something...kind of like that guy from Kansas City that no one remembers...

[CBear3]

The Human Joystick

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

no need to be salty mikey, you guys won that super bowl

[willeyeam]

hester changed the game. any time he touched the ball you had to watch.

Yup, that one time every three hours for almost five seasons (or whatever) was really something...kind of like that guy from Kansas City that no one remembers...

I'm with you. Was he the best KR ever? Maybe. Does that have a big enough impact on a game to be in the HOF? I don't think.

[count2infinity]

If there are no long snappers in the HOF, there should not be any kick returners that didn't do anything else, imo. Hester wasn't like Deshaun Jackson where he was a threat on kick returns a great WR to boot. There are also no punters outside of Ray Guy in the HOF.

I'm fine if they start allowing other obscure specialty people in after this, but based on the past? Nah. Hall of neat players, amirite?

[Troy Loney]

Bland should have won dpoy if return touchdowns gets you in the hof

[MR25]

It's weird too because Hester is only 12th all-time in KR yards and tied for 9th with KR TDs... Cordarelle Patterson has him beat in both and is the current KR TD record holder.

3rd in PR yards and 1st in PR TDs by 4 though, so maybe that's part of it

[mikey]

Yeah, it's tough to figure. But dude score like 30 tds ever...BUDGET!

[tifosi77]

Devin Hester was electric at his niche job. But he is basically in the HOF because of the SB kick return imo. Take that one play out, put that TD in a regular old playoff game so his stat line is the same, and I don't think people even give him votes.

[genoscoif]

It's gotta be some sort of goofy advanced analytics right? Like others have said, the basic stat lines don't tell the story. Must be something else.

Yep...stuff like this from the article DD posted that was only thru week 13. I'm goin' on a rant.

It's the stuff that drives me nuts with these goofy advanced analytics. First of all, a 'win' is fairly subjective. Someone is determining what they consider a 'win' with regard to blocker vs. rusher. Even 'double team' can be tricky, and isn't necessarily objective.

So your base data is already tainted. But let's say it's not. Okay, the graph shows Micah and MG are double teamed twice as much as TJ. Cool. Micah's 'win' rate is about 5% higher than Garret and 10% higher than TJ. Okay. The graph is very compelling, isn't it? It put Micah way ahead of the curve, doesn't it? Just look at it!!!

Here's why I hate this stuff. Below are the year end data points (not just thru week 13) that were used for the graph on ESPN analytics. Again, looks pretty compelling.......but is it really? According to these number, Micah was double teamed on 83 of his pass rush plays, TJ was DT on 41...so 42 more times. Cool...divide that by 17. Oh, okay, so Micah was DT on 2 or 3 more plays a game than TJ was. Sweet.

What about actual wins, though. They're nice enough to just have this one. 84 for Micah and 75 for TJ. So 9 more wins all year. 9. Garret had 7 more. Half a win per game. Cool?

The best part of analysis like this though is what's NOT asked. What did Micah and Garret do with their higher win rates and, by extension, more opportunities to make big plays? Not get more sacks, pressures, or solo tackles than TJ. So........TJ made more impactful plays than either of these two even though he had less opportunities per 'win rate'. That to me sounds like the better defensive player. But that's subjective.

EDGE Pass Rush Win Rate Rankings
RANK NAME TEAM WINS PLAYS PRWR DOUBLE TEAM %
1 Micah Parsons DAL 84 238 35% 35%
2 Myles Garrett CLE 82 269 30% 29%
3 Will Anderson Jr. HOU 57 221 26% 23%
4 T.J. Watt PIT 75 296 25% 14%