Fantasy Hockey Discussion

Kraftster
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Fantasy Hockey Discussion

Postby Kraftster » Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:42 pm

I draft for hits, definitely, but I don't play in any category leagues that count hits, so it could be different in those leagues, I guess. I play H2H points, so it's purely a matter of finding average hits per rostered player and comfortably projecting that a player's +hits will equate to X more points than the average skater and using that to bump up their production. Wouldn't quite work the same way in a cat/roto league. But, I find hits to be quite predictable, both by player and home arena.

With those cats you can punt secondary stuff because for the most part, taking a points-only approach will cause you to hit on the majority of skater categories. In a true roto league (no H2H), punting is very dangerous. While PIMs can be more random than blocked shots, which can be more random than hits, I don't think those secondary stats are random enough to warrant non-consideration.

Kraftster
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Postby Kraftster » Sat Oct 03, 2015 11:44 am

How many productive years does Luongo have left? Florida has no one in the pipeline that I'me aware of, and his play has been pretty steady. Basically, I'm looking to decide in a keeper whether I want to ride him until he loses his value or try to turn him into a younger goalie while he still has appeal. Specifically, I'm considering a Luongo + Pastrnak for Bernier + Forsberg trade. That trade will likely be a net loss for me this year, but it seems like a decent way to get younger in goal.

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Postby Kicksave » Sat Oct 03, 2015 12:17 pm

How many productive years does Luongo have left? Florida has no one in the pipeline that I'me aware of, and his play has been pretty steady. Basically, I'm looking to decide in a keeper whether I want to ride him until he loses his value or try to turn him into a younger goalie while he still has appeal. Specifically, I'm considering a Luongo + Pastrnak for Bernier + Forsberg trade. That trade will likely be a net loss for me this year, but it seems like a decent way to get younger in goal.
I really like Filip Forsberg.

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Fantasy Hockey Discussion

Postby Craig » Sat Oct 03, 2015 12:20 pm

Thats pretty much all i have to say about that as well.

Kraftster
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Postby Kraftster » Mon Oct 05, 2015 9:48 am

@mikey I know you are a big fan of Leddy. The more I dig into last year, the more it looks like he was unlucky to not finish with higher offensive production. The Isles brought in Zidlicky, so theoretically he could pose a threat to the PPTOI of Boychuk or Leddy. Do you ultimately see Leddy rising to PP duties in New York in the near future? His extension suggests that the Isles believe in him, but Boychuk was extended for awfully big money as well.

I have a chance to swap Faulk for Leddy to upgrade elsewhere in the deal. For Faulk, I'm not sure I see a point ceiling a whole lot above what Faulk did last year in Carolina (49 points), and while Faulk is a bit more physical than Leddy (hits help production in this league), I see the two as fairly similar players--great top pair defensemen without elite offensive upside--to where if things break right for Leddy and wrong for Faulk in a given year, they could basically flip-flop on last year's numbers.

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Postby mikey » Mon Oct 05, 2015 10:06 am

Two really good players. I wouldn't be too worried about Zidlicky actually. He has to work himself into the power play and he's RHS, Leddy is LHS. So, they likely won't have the same role on a PP anyhow.

I doubt there's any data to back this up, but I drafted Leddy as my #2 d-man behind Drew Doughty in my most recent draft because I'm not sure there is a defenseman that touches the puck more than Leddy in the NHL. The way the Isles breakout typically works, Leddy gets a touch or two it feels like on almost every rush. He's a brilliant skater and puck mover. This an up and coming Isles team with a lot of skill, someone has to get the puck to 91 and he's the best puck mover on the club. Boychuk is a shooter, Zidlicky is losing mobility quick and is more of a shooter...so you have the green de Haan and Leddy to do the work...

Justin Faulk is due for a lot of minuses on that joke of a Hurricanes team...but he has one of the higher ceilings for d-men in the NHL...he is just a supreme talent on the blueline...unfortunately, he has almost no help and no one meaningful to pass to (though, I expect a Jeff Skinner revival this season)...it's a tough spot for a budding young star to be in, but he can play. In fact, skill on skill, Faulk beats Leddy by a pretty clear margin for me, but Leddy is in a far better situation...

Underrated and not related: David Savard from Columbus. Paired with JMFJ for a while late last season, check his numbers down the stretch and buy hard on this Columbus team...they lost about 2.4 million man games to injury last year, they have Brandon Saad now (must have, even in the 5th or 6th round) who I think with RyJo will finish top-25 in NHL scoring...Savard is the most competent of the lot...and he helps you out in the ancillary categories as well...good all-around add and will be available with your last pick in nearly all formats...

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Postby mikey » Mon Oct 05, 2015 10:14 am

For those "late" drafters, this was my loose blueprint for the year...

No players from:
Boston (late sleeper - David Pastrnak) - team fell to pieces.
Buffalo - Still young, weak on defense, unproven 'tending
Carolina (except Justin Faulk, or late sleeper Jeff Skinner) - lol
New Jersey (late sleeper Adam Larsson maybe, maybe Cammy, someone has to score) - rebuild, tactics change
Toronto - lol
Arizona - Garbage
Vancouver - hahaha great GM-ing, seriously...

Slight negative:
Florida (consider Barkov, Bjugstad, Ekblad late) - young, up and coming. Not a lot of fantasy studs though

Philadelphia (G, Wayne Simmonds; late sleeper: Raffl) - Still re-tooling. Tactics change may cost Mason.

Colorado (Barrie, Duchene, MacKinnon [shot like 7% last year]) - Tough group to read. Duchene and MacK can't get worse than last year you figure. Plan to play pond hockey though.

San Jose (Pavelski, Burns) - Old team.

Neutral:
Rangers - No idea, only draft value picks. Even Lundqvist is getting old. Team could stall after being so close the last few years. Maybe sleeper: Zucc or Kevin Hayes

Ottawa - Mark Stone in a value spot. Erik Karlsson is the best offensive d-man in recent history. Everything else is a tough call.

Calgary (Gaudreau; super sleeper: Sam Bennett) - Careful with this team, a lot of moving parts, not a lot of talent on the wings. Might regress.

Slight positive:
Detroit (Tatar, Nyquist, Mrazek*, Mike Green) - New coach is good, younger core

Montreal (MaxPac, Plekanec, Subban...super late: Petry, Semin; don't reach for Price) - Got by on defense last year, power play has to be better this year, careful on Price after MVP season, tough to duplicate.

Tampa Bay (Kucherov, Drouin, Palat, Hedman) - Team could be diesel, but will teams learn how they play? Cautious to load up on them. Stamkos contract year, but has left us wanting more each postseason - pressure on him too much to overcome?

Chicago (Keith; sleeper: Anisimov) - AA would be Kane's center. But uncertainty with Kane makes it tough)

Edmonton (Hall, McDavid; super sleeper: Anton Slepyshev) - McDavid is a lock for 60 points I think and Hall riding shotgun with him is huge. Team can't stop any pucks, gotta score.

Positive:
Pittsburgh (Crosby, Kessel, Malkin; value: Hornqvist; sleeper: Plotnikov/Perron) - Poor defense could cost Fleury this year.

Washington (Kuznetsov*, Ovechkin, Holtby, Carlson; sleeper: Burakovsky) - Backstrom hurt to start the year. Kuznetsov could be top-25 in scoring.

Nashville (Forsberg, Weber, Neal, Rinne) - Assembling weapons to be a team. Don't load up on them though, lack of centers.

Buy hard:
Columbus (Johansen, Saad*, D.Savard; not Foligno) - lost a million man games to injury, Saad-RyJo-Foligno, best line ever. Foligno shot like 20+% last year, not sustainable. Savard had 19 points in last 34 games (45 point pace)

Islanders (Tavares, Strome, Leddy; sleepers: Anders Lee, Brock Nelson...someone will ride shotgun with JT) - New location, up and coming. Ton of talent.

Anaheim (Getzlaf, Perry, Silfverberg [shot under 7% last year, has a great release], any of: Vatanen, Fowler, Lindholm (in order); sleeper: Jiri Sekac - No problem with Freddy Andersen, but not high because there are two other legit starters there in Khudobin and Gibson.

Dallas (Sharp*, Seguin, Klingberg; sleeper: Nichushkin) - Should be an offensive juggernaut. Garbage defense. Don't buy too high on Jamie Benn after Art Ross. Spezza worth a look in deep leagues. But he is very assist-heavy and therefore provides less value. Sharp shot like 6% last year, can't be repeated.

Los Angeles (Kopitar, Toffoli, Lucic, Doughty, Quick*, late Gaborik or Muzzin) - Ready to dominate. Lucic-Kopitar unstoppable cycle game.

St. Louis (Tarasenko, Schwartz, Stastny, Petro; sleeper: Jori Lehtera) - Always get duped by them. One of these d-men will get a ton of assists passing to these guys, gotta think it's Petro this year. Stastny is centering Tarasenko in preseason.

Winnipeg (Wheeler, Trouba; sleeper: Myers, Little; super sleeper: Nikolaj Ehlers) - Another step forward this year for the Jets you gotta think, despite goaltending.

Round 1: Big goal scorer: Ovechkin, Sid, Tavares, Seguin, Malkin, Stamkos in that order

Round 2 (high): Big scoring winger: Kessel, Tarasensko, Perry
Round 2 (mid-low): Great goalie: Quick, Price, Holtby, Rinne

Round 3: Did you get one of those goalies yet, last call. If so, second great center could be useful: Getzlaf, Kopitar, Hall, Pavelski; not bad: Couture, another goalie to get it out of the way.

Round 4:
Need a LW/goals: MaxPac
Need RW: Kucherov, Wheeler
Still need a 2C: McDavid
Need a d-man: Burns, Keith, Letang, Weber all ok.

Round 5:
Start hitting "preference" targets: Saad, in particular
"Second tier" elite d-men: Doughty, Hedman, Carlson, Yandle worth a look
High upside strikers: Gaudreau, Forsberg, James Neal

Round 6:
Next group of scorers, maybe position versatility: Sharp, Tatar, Duchene
Next tier goalies/d-men, if needed: Halak, Freddy Andersen. Varly // Barrie, Ekblad, Green
Next group of high upside strikers: Jaden Schwartz...start to consider reaching for Evgeny Kuznetsov

Round 7: If you don't want to lose out on: Wayne Simmonds/Patric Hornqvist, Ladd, Nyquist, Little

Round 8: If you don't want to lose out on: Palat, Jeff Carter, J.Faulk, D.Hamilton, S.Vatanen, J.Klingberg...might strongly consider taking Petr Mrazek if a goalie is needed.

Round 9: IYDWTLOO: N.Leddy, M.Stone, Toffoli, Martin Jones, M.Lucic, J.Spezza

After this it becomes more open:

Names of interest that went in the 10th round or later in my one 12-round mock (not named above):

Jake Muzzin
Jeff Skinner
Hampus Lindholm
Jakob Silfverberg*
Marian Gaborik
Alex Galchenyuk
Jonathan Drouin*
Jacob Trouba
Nick Bjugstad
Kevin Hayes
Cam Fowler
Cam Atkinson
David Pastrnak
Tomas Plekanec
Paul Stastny*
Mats Zuccarello

Undrafted:
Alexander Semin
Teemu Pulkkinen*
Sam Bennett
Ryan Strome*
Jared Spurgeon
Valeri Nichushkin*
David Savard*
Anders Lee
Brock Nelson

* = take a round early on preference plays...

Kraftster
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Postby Kraftster » Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:21 am

For those "late" drafters, this was my loose blueprint for the year...

No players from:
Boston (late sleeper - David Pastrnak) - team fell to pieces.
Buffalo - Still young, weak on defense, unproven 'tending
Carolina (except Justin Faulk, or late sleeper Jeff Skinner) - lol
New Jersey (late sleeper Adam Larsson maybe, maybe Cammy, someone has to score) - rebuild, tactics change
Toronto - lol
Arizona - Garbage
Vancouver - hahaha great GM-ing, seriously...

Slight negative:
Florida (consider Barkov, Bjugstad, Ekblad late) - young, up and coming. Not a lot of fantasy studs though

Philadelphia (G, Wayne Simmonds; late sleeper: Raffl) - Still re-tooling. Tactics change may cost Mason.

Colorado (Barrie, Duchene, MacKinnon [shot like 7% last year]) - Tough group to read. Duchene and MacK can't get worse than last year you figure. Plan to play pond hockey though.

San Jose (Pavelski, Burns) - Old team.

Neutral:
Rangers - No idea, only draft value picks. Even Lundqvist is getting old. Team could stall after being so close the last few years. Maybe sleeper: Zucc or Kevin Hayes

Ottawa - Mark Stone in a value spot. Erik Karlsson is the best offensive d-man in recent history. Everything else is a tough call.

Calgary (Gaudreau; super sleeper: Sam Bennett) - Careful with this team, a lot of moving parts, not a lot of talent on the wings. Might regress.

Slight positive:
Detroit (Tatar, Nyquist, Mrazek*, Mike Green) - New coach is good, younger core

Montreal (MaxPac, Plekanec, Subban...super late: Petry, Semin; don't reach for Price) - Got by on defense last year, power play has to be better this year, careful on Price after MVP season, tough to duplicate.

Tampa Bay (Kucherov, Drouin, Palat, Hedman) - Team could be diesel, but will teams learn how they play? Cautious to load up on them. Stamkos contract year, but has left us wanting more each postseason - pressure on him too much to overcome?

Chicago (Keith; sleeper: Anisimov) - AA would be Kane's center. But uncertainty with Kane makes it tough)

Edmonton (Hall, McDavid; super sleeper: Anton Slepyshev) - McDavid is a lock for 60 points I think and Hall riding shotgun with him is huge. Team can't stop any pucks, gotta score.

Positive:
Pittsburgh (Crosby, Kessel, Malkin; value: Hornqvist; sleeper: Plotnikov/Perron) - Poor defense could cost Fleury this year.

Washington (Kuznetsov*, Ovechkin, Holtby, Carlson; sleeper: Burakovsky) - Backstrom hurt to start the year. Kuznetsov could be top-25 in scoring.

Nashville (Forsberg, Weber, Neal, Rinne) - Assembling weapons to be a team. Don't load up on them though, lack of centers.

Buy hard:
Columbus (Johansen, Saad*, D.Savard; not Foligno) - lost a million man games to injury, Saad-RyJo-Foligno, best line ever. Foligno shot like 20+% last year, not sustainable. Savard had 19 points in last 34 games (45 point pace)

Islanders (Tavares, Strome, Leddy; sleepers: Anders Lee, Brock Nelson...someone will ride shotgun with JT) - New location, up and coming. Ton of talent.

Anaheim (Getzlaf, Perry, Silfverberg [shot under 7% last year, has a great release], any of: Vatanen, Fowler, Lindholm (in order); sleeper: Jiri Sekac - No problem with Freddy Andersen, but not high because there are two other legit starters there in Khudobin and Gibson.

Dallas (Sharp*, Seguin, Klingberg; sleeper: Nichushkin) - Should be an offensive juggernaut. Garbage defense. Don't buy too high on Jamie Benn after Art Ross. Spezza worth a look in deep leagues. But he is very assist-heavy and therefore provides less value. Sharp shot like 6% last year, can't be repeated.

Los Angeles (Kopitar, Toffoli, Lucic, Doughty, Quick*, late Gaborik or Muzzin) - Ready to dominate. Lucic-Kopitar unstoppable cycle game.

St. Louis (Tarasenko, Schwartz, Stastny, Petro; sleeper: Jori Lehtera) - Always get duped by them. One of these d-men will get a ton of assists passing to these guys, gotta think it's Petro this year. Stastny is centering Tarasenko in preseason.

Winnipeg (Wheeler, Trouba; sleeper: Myers, Little; super sleeper: Nikolaj Ehlers) - Another step forward this year for the Jets you gotta think, despite goaltending.

Round 1: Big goal scorer: Ovechkin, Sid, Tavares, Seguin, Malkin, Stamkos in that order

Round 2 (high): Big scoring winger: Kessel, Tarasensko, Perry
Round 2 (mid-low): Great goalie: Quick, Price, Holtby, Rinne

Round 3: Did you get one of those goalies yet, last call. If so, second great center could be useful: Getzlaf, Kopitar, Hall, Pavelski; not bad: Couture, another goalie to get it out of the way.

Round 4:
Need a LW/goals: MaxPac
Need RW: Kucherov, Wheeler
Still need a 2C: McDavid
Need a d-man: Burns, Keith, Letang, Weber all ok.

Round 5:
Start hitting "preference" targets: Saad, in particular
"Second tier" elite d-men: Doughty, Hedman, Carlson, Yandle worth a look
High upside strikers: Gaudreau, Forsberg, James Neal

Round 6:
Next group of scorers, maybe position versatility: Sharp, Tatar, Duchene
Next tier goalies/d-men, if needed: Halak, Freddy Andersen. Varly // Barrie, Ekblad, Green
Next group of high upside strikers: Jaden Schwartz...start to consider reaching for Evgeny Kuznetsov

Round 7: If you don't want to lose out on: Wayne Simmonds/Patric Hornqvist, Ladd, Nyquist, Little

Round 8: If you don't want to lose out on: Palat, Jeff Carter, J.Faulk, D.Hamilton, S.Vatanen, J.Klingberg...might strongly consider taking Petr Mrazek if a goalie is needed.

Round 9: IYDWTLOO: N.Leddy, M.Stone, Toffoli, Martin Jones, M.Lucic, J.Spezza

After this it becomes more open:

Names of interest that went in the 10th round or later in my one 12-round mock (not named above):

Jake Muzzin
Jeff Skinner
Hampus Lindholm
Jakob Silfverberg*
Marian Gaborik
Alex Galchenyuk
Jonathan Drouin*
Jacob Trouba
Nick Bjugstad
Kevin Hayes
Cam Fowler
Cam Atkinson
David Pastrnak
Tomas Plekanec
Paul Stastny*
Mats Zuccarello

Undrafted:
Alexander Semin
Teemu Pulkkinen*
Sam Bennett
Ryan Strome*
Jared Spurgeon
Valeri Nichushkin*
David Savard*
Anders Lee
Brock Nelson

* = take a round early on preference plays...
That's a good read, and thanks for the Leddy thoughts. You omitted Minny. Thoughts on Granlund taking it to the next level this year? Seems like this is a huge year for him to establish what he's going to be. Last time to buy cheap if he breaks out (65 points), or get burnt investing on a Koivu 2.0 player (from a fantasy production standpoint), where he's serviceable but nothing you can't replace easily enough.

mikey
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Postby mikey » Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:35 am

Hmph, I guess I did skip Minnesota...nice catch...

Probably neutral for me, maybe slight positive...I get duped by these guys some times. Mikko Koivu was already not a fast player, but he seems to be getting even slower and Mikael Granlund might be just short of having the ability to explode offensively...lots of depth on that team, but tough to figure on who will be a draft stud...they're a good waiver team because the guy that is hot early, I feel like will be a go to guy throughout (Pommer?)...I wouldn't hesitate to pick up any of their forwards on even small hot streaks and riding them...

I'm steering clear of Dubnyk (there's about six draftable goalies for me this year...I'm steering clear of a lot)...if I need a 4th/5th d-man (out of 4 starters), Jared Spurgeon is someone I would look to...lots of upside, should be paired with Ryan Suter all year, RHS, great puck mover...

MR25
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Postby MR25 » Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:47 am

5th overall pick in an 8 team league. Do I go best goal scorer-goalie or scorer-D in the first 2 rounds?

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Postby Kicksave » Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:49 am

Round 1: Big goal scorer: Ovechkin, Sid, Tavares, Seguin, Malkin, Stamkos in that order

Kraftster
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Postby Kraftster » Mon Oct 05, 2015 11:58 am

I think it's tough to go Stamkos at 6 this year. RW is a disaster this season. I'd go Giroux and maybe even Kessel over Stamkos.

Whether to go D is really dependent upon format and roster size. I was advising a friend on a draft last week, and he went Price-Karlsson-Subban-Varlamov to start the draft. I think he'll dominate because of it, but that was sort of a unique format to support such a strategy.

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Postby mikey » Mon Oct 05, 2015 12:05 pm

Defense in hockey is like TE in football...you have Gronk or you have everyone else. Same here, you have Karlsson or you have everyone else...

I don't draft high on D because the production is always find-able...

One d-man had more than 60 points last year. The guy with the 5th most had 55 points, guy with 40 finished 27th. It's all the same. Plus, you can use a d-man to pick up the stupid categories more readily...pims, shot blocks, even plus/minus...

I draft for goals and goaltending and almost nothing else...everything else will work itself out...

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Postby Kraftster » Mon Oct 05, 2015 12:10 pm

Also, if a league counts hits, I'm gaga for Evander Kane. Hell, I'm pretty high on him in even a more standard stats + PIMs league. I bought him in all leagues that I could this year.

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Postby mikey » Mon Oct 05, 2015 12:25 pm

If you're a deep league or keeper...pick up Jake Virtanen then too...he made the Canucks and is the same exact player as Kane...puts his head down and skates straight down the ice as fast as he can, rips a shot high and wide, plows the d-man into the boards because he's frustrated with how bad he is...no hockey sense or vision, but shots+hits+PIMs...I'd say he has a good enough shot to score, but that would imply the Canucks will score this season...

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Postby Kraftster » Mon Oct 05, 2015 1:07 pm

If you're a deep league or keeper...pick up Jake Virtanen then too...he made the Canucks and is the same exact player as Kane...puts his head down and skates straight down the ice as fast as he can, rips a shot high and wide, plows the d-man into the boards because he's frustrated with how bad he is...no hockey sense or vision, but shots+hits+PIMs...I'd say he has a good enough shot to score, but that would imply the Canucks will score this season...
Yikes! Have to hope there's more to Kane than that.

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Postby mikey » Mon Oct 05, 2015 1:21 pm

Nope, that's Evander Kane to a T. That's why the Jets moved him, he didn't work with any of their smart players...Bryan Little is a genius, Mark Schiefele is very smart, Wheeler, Ladd, Mathieu Perreault...he didn't work with any of them...they stuck him on the third line because at least then he could just carry it three zones and fire and it didn't matter if anyone else got a touch...

They cashed out on him when the opportunity presented itself...players with no hockey sense usually come in and have diesel seasons in their first year especially, sometimes even second, because of physical tools and athleticism (and others not knowing their game) but then they go on and a downward spiral after that because they can't think the game well enough to adapt and evolve...see if we can spot a trend: Dion Phaneuf, Evander Kane, Magnus Svensson-Paajarvi, Jared Cowen, Luca Sbisa...all first round picks with no hockey sense...did their statistical production follow what you would think it would? I can't imagine you'll find that's the case...

Jake Virtanen is next. Draft him. Get that sweet, sweet rookie season...cash out...

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Postby Kraftster » Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:42 pm

What do the 5AF scouts think of Scheifele? Take another decent step forward this year? 60+?

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Postby mikey » Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:05 pm

I have notes to share when I get home. Offensive upside seems to be leveling off a little in exchange for a tremendous step forward defensively in the past 12 months. I watched a lot of tape on him over the summer to see where he was at.

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Postby MR25 » Tue Oct 06, 2015 9:18 pm

Roster:

C: Tavares, Pavelski
LW: Couture, Gaudreau
RW: Perry, MacKinnon
D: Doughty, Vatanen, Klingberg, Fowler
G: Schneider, Andersen

Bench: Backstrom, Duchene, Turris, Monahan, Schwartz, Stralman

2 per forward position, 4 D, 2 G

Scoring is G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, Hits, W, GAA, SV%, SHO. Also most of my players are flex players.

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Postby Kraftster » Tue Oct 06, 2015 10:43 pm

I have a hard time judging 10 team leagues, especially with rosters that small. The team looks good, but I imagine the others do too.

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Postby MR25 » Tue Oct 06, 2015 10:46 pm

It's an 8 team league, but I have the best projections over the course of the year

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Postby Craig » Tue Oct 06, 2015 10:49 pm

With an 8 team league with that roster size, its basically a roll of the dice who wins in a given week unless someone is really bad at drafting.

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Postby Kraftster » Tue Oct 06, 2015 10:55 pm

Yes. 8 team leagues are pointless, imo.

And if 8 teams, I'm not a fan of your goaltending.

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Postby mikey » Wed Oct 07, 2015 7:52 am

Careful with Cam Fowler. He is my boy and all, one of my favorite players in the whole league for a few years now. But he is much better as a puck carrier at even strength, has not looked as comfortable on the power play. Vatanen is RHS and a power play man. Watch closely to make sure Hampus Lindholm doesn't usurp the LHS point shot on their PP. Fowler will likely end up very plus and still get points. But usually in a small league, that bonus PP production from the D is necessary. That said, D is the easiest production to replace, so you're good regardless...

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