Fantasy Hockey Discussion

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Kraftster
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Post by Kraftster »

Well, I was ousted from the playoffs by a dreadful team that did not even deserve to be in the playoffs. Lance Bouma led his team in points this week :? The performance of my goalies this week was just nauseating.

Anyway, I can make one pick up this week and one next. The ideal targets would be under the radar prospects that may be available. Right now I'm leaning Alex Tuch for one of my acquisitions. Has he looked as impressive as his numbers would suggest? Anyone else come to mind in terms of prospects who are less hyped but showing lots of promise? Unfortunately, Bjorkstrand is owned.
Kraftster
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Post by Kraftster »

Can you guys bump this over to the fantasy thread? I forgot we have one of those with the new digs.
Kraftster
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Post by Kraftster »

Is Johan Larsson for real as a top-six player? Or is he just overachieving with the massive amounts of prime icetime that he's getting right now on a bad team hoping to lose?
LITT
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Post by LITT »

no
Kraftster
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Post by Kraftster »

Cool. I can see this thread is going to be me talking to myself for the most part.
Craig
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Post by Craig »

After the fantasy draft is over, i have nothing to ask people.
Kraftster
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Post by Kraftster »

Why?
LITT
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Post by LITT »

Kraftster wrote:Cool. I can see this thread is going to be me talking to myself for the most part.
Isn't that par for the course for people in your line of work
Kraftster
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Post by Kraftster »

Anyone see Jonathan Bernier as a buy low opportunity?
Avyran
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Post by Avyran »

Kraftster wrote:Anyone see Jonathan Bernier as a buy low opportunity?
I do, but only as a very low-buy situation. I don't think that Bernier is worth trading for, as the Leafs as a whole have a pretty good potential to continue sucking. However, he'd be a good extra addition just to see if he can return to his 2013-14 stature. Gardiner & Rielly will continue to improve, and my guess is Toronto makes a bit of a splash in the FA department. Add to that a potential Kessel trade that will improve the Leafs team as a whole... but even more, best case scenario, he's traded somewhere with a better defense.

Also think Dubnyk & Talbot are going to be (relative) busts related to the hype that'll be surrounding them.
Kraftster
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Post by Kraftster »

Thanks for the thoughts.

I'm buying Dubnyk if his owner has doubts. I like Minnesota to come closer to February through the end of the year than they will that tough stretch they had from Nov-Feb.

I agree on Talbot.

As for Bernier, it is impossible to buy very low on goalies in this league. I am a believer in buying on talent vs. situation, and I think Bernier has that going for him. I also think Toronto will be competitive enough for him to be a fantasy-worthwhile goalie sooner rather than later (i.e., closer to 13-14 form than 14-15). I'd be buying him for something like Justin Faulk, David Pastrnak, and Anthony Duclair for Bernier and Kuznetsov, roughly. I'm thinking that I'm willing to pay that price.
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Post by Avyran »

Ah yeah, I think Dubnyk is a good buy if someone sells him short. However, with the Vezina nominations & such, I think a lot of people will be hype-buying him.

(Overly lengthy paragraph incoming.)

That said, since it sounds like this is a keeper league, I'd be concerned about trading away Faulk in that group. That defense is going to be quality (Faulk+Hanifin+Fleury), and it'll be supported by a pretty group of forwards (Lindholm & Rask are going to be decent). Faulk may be the guy that the offense revolves around (obviously @mikey / @meow / @FLPensFan may think differently). I do agree with Pastrnak & Duclair, though; scoring wingers are normally easier to pick up. Duclair will be pretty good in a couple of years with Domi & potentially Auston Matthews, but next year Arizona's gonna be tanking like crazy. Kuznetsov is going to be a beast, though, in terms of points. I think Kuznetsov & Faulk are pretty close in terms of value; I'm not sure if Bernier & Pastrnak/Duclair are.
Kraftster
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Post by Kraftster »

Yeah, keep 17 + 10 farm. 12-team H2H points.

I've been a huge Faulk fan for a long time and have clung to him tightly in this league. I think now is the time to sell, though, because I don't see any growth (in terms of fantasy production) between now and a couple years. If someone is buying an uptick in (fantasy) production from him, I'll sell him. To get a goalie nearly straight across for Faulk--even one on a weak team--is a good opportunity in this league. Goalies are really difficult to get. The other thing is, my D is stacked. Faulk is an interchangeable part with my other six defenseman as all being relatively steady producers. I just think with the Wis trade and past precedent, the PP is not going to run through Faulk. So long as that is the case, I don't see Carolina turning those minuses that he's saddled with around, and I don't see his ES production bumping up all that much. I don't know, I just can't see much growth from 50 points until the team turns around--not something I see soon.

Pastrnak is a straight point producer to me. I don't favor those types of players in leagues that weigh secondary stats (hits, blocks) because it generally makes for less consistent production. My team is built around guys that contribute in those categories to create a nice floor of production, but then also have point producing potential (Getzlaf, Kesler, Palat, Lucic, Ryan, Wheeler, Callahan). Hudler (or Voracek) seems like a reasonable comp for Pasta in terms of fantasy production. When things click in a year, production will be great. But when things go badly, there's no other production to fall back on.

I see Duclair as a throw-in. I'm not confident in his game translating soon, and I frequently move these types because I have confidence that I'll find another stock-climber type guy in most seasons. Those players are just constant trade bait for me.

So, I see it as Faulk for Bernier and Pasta for Kuz.
Kraftster
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Post by Kraftster »

Well, doesn't matter now. The Bernier owner just dealt Mike Smith and a 1st rounder (non-rookies after 324 guys are kept) for Toews and Edler. That should give an idea of how tough it is to get goalies in this league.
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Post by Avyran »

... that seems heavily one-sided. Why're goalies so valued in the league? Smith isn't even that good.
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Post by meow »

10 Team Snake Draft. I picked 3rd
Seguin
Voracek
Toews
Rask
Giordano
van Riemsdyk
Gaudreau
Ekman-Larsson
Simmonds
Eichel
Carter
Palat
Mrazek
Gaborik
Kuznetsov
Boychuk
Muzzin
Kraftster
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Post by Kraftster »

League format? Hopefully no PIMs and hits :P
meow
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Post by meow »

G, A, P, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, W, GAA, SV, SV% SHO.
No hits, thankfully. Those dirty Flyers take some PIMs. Other than that, I have a bunch of safe Sallys.
Kraftster
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Post by Kraftster »

At 9/5, I like your approach to goaltending. I also like that hitless lineup a lot better with those cats!
meow
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Post by meow »

Every year, I think about taking a goalie in 8 or 9, but I hold off. I say to myself, "ok, one more non-goalie, then next round - goalie." It never fails, there is a run of goalies right after I put it off another round. I might have reached for Mrazek a bit, but there is no way Howard is going to keep that net so I am comfortable with it.
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Post by mikey »

Diesel team (I also have never drafted for PIMs, hits or blocked shots...those are random events, I'd rather have skill...if I need to add one nutjob at the end of the week to win PIMs in a tight spot, sure, but drafting for it is not something I'll ever do...goals and goaltending, everything will fall into place)...

Only thing I'm not buying high on is JVR, but LW is a weak position, you needed some goals and someone has to score...sneaky best pick: Kuznetsov. Would not be surprised if he's a top-25 or -30 scorer this year. 13 points in his last 17 to close the year, clearly a monster talent, plus first line center on the Caps until Backstrom returns...
meow
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Post by meow »

My thoughts exactly on JvR. Someone has to score. Right before I clicked draft on him, I had this thought that maybe he and Babcock won't mesh and he might find himself in the doghouse occasionally. At the time, I had no LWs, so I just bit the bullet and did it. I had to go way down the board to get Kuznetsov, which shows the kind of bozos play through Yahoo. I was surprised at how weak of a fantasy player Palat is; being that he is a beast on the ice, his fantasy stats are a little underwhelming.
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Post by mikey »

Yeah, that was surprising to me as well. But I'd still like to have him on that offensively-oriented Bolts team, great linemates...if Palat is not young Hossa, then there never will be one...
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Post by meow »

I always end up with the 3rd pick and I'm never sure which direction to go with it. Stamkos, Seguin, Malkin, Tavares.
Craig
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Post by Craig »

I would probably narrow it down to just seguin and tavares.
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