One Week Fantasy Leagues

[Kraftster]

Seriously infuriating day. Crabtree was like 12% owned, And Walker 5%, Hurns 4%. All around 25 points. Then my big spends--Brady, Freeman, Atlanta D--do nothing. I still have Jeffrey and Gordon, so I should win a little money, but could've been a great day if those guys could've delivered as expected.

The Falcons suck. What a pathetic team. I'm cutting Ryan in 5af.

[Spangler]

Seriously infuriating day. Crabtree was like 12% owned, And Walker 5%, Hurns 4%. All around 25 points. Then my big spends--Brady, Freeman, Atlanta D--do nothing. I still have Jeffrey and Gordon, so I should win a little money, but could've been a great day if those guys could've delivered as expected.

The Falcons suck. What a pathetic team. I'm cutting Ryan in 5af.

It's infuriating. It sucks when you have a team that does really well and it doesn't pay well because of course someone has everyone you had plus all the other right choices.

I end of overthinking everything. I could have had DeAngelo Williams on all of my teams instead of just one because I knew he was going to take over Bell's production this week, but instead I kept asking "what ifs".

[Troy Loney]

I can't win in daily football. I hit on Crabtree, Hurns, and Walker where I spent up on Brady who has probably his most pedestrian hat of the season against the Washington freaking Redskins.

This was a terrible week to play any tournaments.

From your playbook, I'll make all my money back and then some in the double up leagues. There were too many players that went off to win the tourneys this week without being perfect. All you needed was Brown, Brees and Williams for like 130 points this week, then there were plenty of 20 point RB's out there and all the big WR's hit this week too.

But anyway, I think we should pool our observations and presumptions in this thread for making lineups. Here's a couple of things that stood out to me.

-The Saints are back to being a powerhouse, the D can't stop anyone and Brees is moving the ball at will
-The one o clock west coast team travel thing seems to manifest itself on the defensive side of the ball and has little impact on the offense. This week it was the Raiders that let the Steelers move up and down the field, last week the Ravens put up 29 on the Chargers and the Cardinals gave up three TD passes to McCown.
-Freeman's run looks dried up, Julio is the only guy on that team. Buy him when he has a plus secondary matchup and avoid if he's dinged up or facing a top corner.

[Kraftster]

I was going to sit this week out, but I was listening to XM Fantasy on Saturday night while I was in the car, and I got the itch to play after listening to one of the guests talk about his thoughts on tournament plays this week. This guy was a pretty straight shooter, and for some reason the whole "you're not trying to build a team with the post points, you're trying to build a team with the best chance to win finally resonated with me.

I understand that mantra, but it is so counterintuitive that I think it's hard to actually embrace it and play with it in mind. It's especially hard because when you actually understand it--and if it's accurate--daily fantasy is portrayed more like gambling than the industry wants. But reading between the lines of what this guy was saying basically came across as: ownership rates are of primary importance in building tournament lineups--even more important than points.

He went on to talk about why Melvin Gordon was a perfect tournament play this week. He even said the following: "Do I think that Gordon will have more points than Deangelo Williams, who is cheaper to own by the way? No. But he's still the better play for tournaments."

The best way I can think to explain the mantra above is this: In order to win, your team has to go off and be perfect. Since you need that to happen no matter what, you might as well build a team that will actually win (as in win the whole thing) if it does happen. The only way to do that is with using guys that will be underowned.

The other useful tidbit this guy relayed was that ownership rates are typically lower than they "should be" for Monday night players because teams want to be out in front as opposed to chasing. With that in mind, I went with Jeffrey over Brown. That turns out to be a miss, but I think the point is, having Brown yesterday only reduced the field of competition by 70% vs. the 90% reduction that there would be if Jeffrey went off (and in an ideal world, Brown had a so so day).

So, accepting that for tournaments you are building a team that probably won't win but will win big if everything clicks was my important accomplishment this week. It sounds easier than it actually is. Next step for me is realizing that I probably don't need to spend all of my money when building a tournament lineup.

[Troy Loney]

That makes sense. Problem is though that you probably end up having to build a ton of rosters to win.

[Kraftster]

Yeah, which I guess is why it's not very fun (or sustainable) to play large tournaments.

So, I guess a useful takeaway might be to consider building a lineup from the bottom up instead of the top down. I built my rosters around Gordon, Jeffrey, Crabtree, Hurns and Walker as a starting point, and I ended up taking Brady, Freeman, Atlanta D because I had enough to afford those guys more than anything else. Prior to this week, I'd been building things the other way around for the most part.

[Troy Loney]

That's probably the way to do it. I think though it requires insight on gameflow.

Crabtree and Walker went off because their team was involved in a shootout. I never thought the Titans would get involved in a shootout so I avoided that Saints game. I'm seeing a lot of overlap between daily fantasy and betting over unders.

[Kraftster]

That's probably the way to do it. I think though it requires insight on gameflow.

Crabtree and Walker went off because their team was involved in a shootout. I never thought the Titans would get involved in a shootout so I avoided that Saints game. I'm seeing a lot of overlap between daily fantasy and betting over unders.

Completely agree. The same guy I've been talking about on XM seemed heavily influenced by the Vegas over/under for games. It's not coincidence that my big misses--Brady and Freeman--were involved in games that hit the under by a wide margin. Reviewing teams' records vis-a-vis over/under might be an important consideration.

[Kraftster]

That's probably the way to do it. I think though it requires insight on gameflow.

Crabtree and Walker went off because their team was involved in a shootout. I never thought the Titans would get involved in a shootout so I avoided that Saints game. I'm seeing a lot of overlap between daily fantasy and betting over unders.

And just as another example, Hurns went off probably in part because Robinson was contending with Revis all afternoon and Jacksonville is good for lots of pass attempts and garbage time. That gets more into the consideration of defensive personnel you've mentioned.

[Troy Loney]

I wonder if that means finding the right times to bet against the over under.

I'm guessing that DAL-PHI game went way over last night

[Spangler]

If the defense isn't too expensive I'm picking the team going against the Steelers since Ben is out. The offense is handcuffed when he's not playing.

I've been picking the cheap D going against a good matchup, and it's worked out so far. Picked the Jets this week on most of my teams. Should have picked them for all of them.

Matt Ryan is a QB to avoid for the time being. Seems to be in a rut the past 4 weeks. Good for a couple turnovers each game.

[Spangler]

I was well on my way to winning some money late into yesterday. Then Hillman puts up basically no points and Malcom Floyd gets hurt early in the game with no points. I was ranked in the 300s at one point late into Sunday and slowly dropped out of contention.

If I don't win anything next week, I'm cashing out.

[dodint]

DFS has been banned in New York. Declared game of luck, not skill.

I wish they would ban it in DC and WI, so I don't have to see the commercials or listen to them on the TK show.

[Craig]

If you like stacking lines duchene - mackinnon - landeskog skated together today. Duchene is still probably relatively cheap.

[mikey]

If you like stacking lines duchene - mackinnon - landeskog skated together today. Duchene is still probably relatively cheap.

Do we send you some money now or how does this work...?

[Kraftster]

Unbelievable. Faded Dallas, bought heavily in Minnesota and Nasvhille, and I'm going to come up empty because I don't have a piece of any of the four shutouts so far. Unless Jones and Quick make it shutouts 5 and 6, I'm going to get nothing despite some great against-the-grain calls tonight. Blah.

Also, I'm officially done putting DFS money on Tampa and Philly breaking out of their pathetic funks.

[dodint]

Source of the post I don't have a piece of any of the four shutouts so far.

I made two bets tonight: Flyers/Avs and Rangers/Hurricanes both teams will score.

Hurrrrrgggggggurrggghhhhhhahhhargh.

[mikey]

Any team vs. Reto Berra is a mortal lock...so you must have some bad karma...

[Kraftster]

That's why I couldn't resist sprinkling Grioux, Voracek, and Streit into my lineups. Beyond that, Colorado is so clearly the worst possession team in the league and the top line of the Flyers has actually been pretty strong in that regard despite the lack of production. It's funny, I've been stacking against both of these teams with success, so that should have told me to trust neither.

Frustrating night.

[dodint]

Any team vs. Reto Berra is a mortal lock...so you must have some bad karma...

It was the Cutler money if that helps explain things.

[mikey]

You plant karma...

[mikey]

Source of the post Unless Jones and Quick make it shutouts 5 and 6

Close... :/

[Kraftster]

Anyone have a good read on any cheaper DST options today? I had to drop down from Miller to Blount to make another change and am debating whether to downgrade at D (currently Denver) to keep Miller in. Steelers are most expensive option. Manziel protected the ball pretty well last week, though. It's a tournament game, so upside's the key.

[Craig]

I always go with a mediocre team against a crap team. Im actually playing this week because DK emailed me with a free game asking me to come back.

[Spangler]

I missed reaching a money placing by .2 points. Yeah, I'm cashing out for good.