Investing, Stock Market and Retirement Planning Thread

mikey
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Postby mikey » Thu Jan 07, 2021 11:56 pm

SPY should hit about 383 soon, that should be the probably be the top...could opportunity to short some stuff. If you have a lot of stocks, it might be worth it to get some 370, 350 puts...pretty sure they'll start paying before even the end of the month. It will help offset some of the stock losses you might sustain over this time...

I accurately predicted BTC would hit resistance at 40k today, I'll buy back in at 32k I guess...maybe 34...

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Postby NTP66 » Sat Jan 09, 2021 9:28 am

I just can't bring myself to invest in TSLA at the current price. I've watched the rise, but $880 right before an administration switch - which very well could benefit Tesla thanks to a greater push for EV/RE - has me planted.

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Postby NTP66 » Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:54 pm

I accurately predicted BTC would hit resistance at 40k today, I'll buy back in at 32k I guess...maybe 34...
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/01/11/inve ... index.html

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Postby willeyeam » Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:59 pm

Good luck catching the falling knife

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Postby NTP66 » Mon Jan 11, 2021 5:01 pm

I read that a lot of major investors started selling most of their Bitcoin recently, but also that the currency was being used more and more by universities, etc., so who the hell knows. I’m too old to **** around with that stuff now.

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Postby willeyeam » Mon Jan 11, 2021 5:07 pm

I have a hard time figuring out who would use something that fluctuates so wildly as a currency. It seems self defeating

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Postby mikey » Mon Jan 11, 2021 5:09 pm

The key is understanding and handicapping the transition of BTC going from a growth buy to a value buy. There's gonna be a lot of profit taking here at all levels of crypto. But BTC will pretty obviously survive...ETH will be its running mate. I sold at $40k, bought back in at $30k. I think there's room for the correction (especially as the USD picks up) for it drop to $26k, maybe even $21k...but it should really hit heavy resistance at both spots, if it even gets there...

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Postby NTP66 » Mon Jan 11, 2021 5:14 pm

Bitcoin is very involved, from what I’ve seen. I read posts about what some of these people do and I’m like, nah, that’s not for me. Same goes for the guys on r/WSB. Some of them made **** your money by gambling like crazy. I just can’t do that, especially not with a family.

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Postby mikey » Mon Jan 11, 2021 5:16 pm

At this price, I wouldn't have any more than a single digit percentage of my investment portfolio going into it now. If it somehow falls back to like $10k, then I think you could easily have 10-20% of your portfolio in it and then ended up extraordinarily wealthy from such a trade...

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Postby NTP66 » Mon Jan 11, 2021 5:19 pm

I’d be willing to drop $5-10k, which I’m not even sure would be worth it at that point.

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Postby mikey » Mon Jan 11, 2021 5:26 pm

Yeah, I have money to risk. I'm aggressive with my 401k, I'm barely skirting around daytrader rules in my day to day, I also have aggressive savings moves, but it's money I don't touch...only buy dips...

But I'm all about option trading and just profiting off the gambles...if you're real savvy and lucky, you can turn 3, 400% in 45-90 minutes...especially in the first half hour of the trading day...

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Postby mikey » Mon Jan 11, 2021 5:28 pm

At $10k, you could reasonably have $12,500 by the end of the month...as someone that goes around not-exactly-defrauding banks for their new customer offers, this seems like a slightly higher risk, better reward thing that at least belongs in your line of sight haha

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Postby NTP66 » Mon Jan 11, 2021 5:48 pm

At $10k, you could reasonably have $12,500 by the end of the month...as someone that goes around not-exactly-defrauding banks for their new customer offers, this seems like a slightly higher risk, better reward thing that at least belongs in your line of sight haha
I haven’t taken part in any bank deals recently, mostly because they blow, but those are all generally low/no risk. If I did invest, it would certainly be a long-term investment, I’d think. I do regret not investing in Tesla last year when their stock price was in the $300 range. I’m not making any dumb FOMO moves, though.

My goal from the start was to stick with index investing. I’m a few years ahead of schedule, which means I should be able to retire a little quicker. All with investments I don’t have to think about, really. If I was 5-10 years younger, though? I don’t think I’d be saying the same.

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Postby mikey » Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:05 pm

Yeah, that's all fair enough...hopefully you're heavily in the ARKs, you should be able to retire at the end of the decade...

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Postby NTP66 » Mon Jan 11, 2021 7:52 pm

Yeah, that's all fair enough...hopefully you're heavily in the ARKs, you should be able to retire at the end of the decade...
I have no idea what ARKs are.

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Postby NTP66 » Mon Jan 11, 2021 7:58 pm

@Tomas: I’ve got a few CDs maturing in the next few months. Let’s say I want to take $15-20k of it and move it from something liquid to either my brokerage account or my daughter’s 529. Both are 100% TSM. Where would you throw your cash? My goal has always been to fund one year of college, but I’m worried that school will be so expensive that I should plan for at least 2 years now.

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Postby mikey » Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:15 pm

Yeah, that's all fair enough...hopefully you're heavily in the ARKs, you should be able to retire at the end of the decade...
I have no idea what ARKs are.
In all seriousness, if you don't have these in your long-term holds, you're literally poor...

I throw most of my savings into these...I think I'm up like 25% since August...

Like, look at the holdings in the innovation ARK (ARKK): https://ark-funds.com/arkk

If you don't like that, you should sell your family on the dark web and cash out now...

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Postby NTP66 » Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:51 am

Source of the post If you don't like that, you should sell your family on the dark web and cash out now...
Well, this took a dark turn. :lol:

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Postby NTP66 » Tue Jan 12, 2021 7:59 am

Source of the post Like, look at the holdings in the innovation ARK (ARKK): https://ark-funds.com/arkk
They're already in the SP500, so I do own them now, but ARKK would be another avenue for investing in TSLA. So you own just ARKK? ARKG is interesting to me.

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Postby mikey » Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:38 am

ARKK, ARKG, ARKW...just added ARKF, ARKQ last month or so...

The bulk of my savings is in there and it is a beast...

If you want more exposure to TSLA, I believe SFYF would help on a smaller scale...I think I have those letters correct...

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Postby NTP66 » Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:52 am

There's a decent amount of overlap with most of those funds from what I can see. ARKK and ARKG still appeal the most to me (probably at a 60/40 split), though right now may be a little high to buy in at.

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Postby mikey » Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:55 am

Wait until SPY drops to like 360 (it should once it touches 383), then buy and hold forever...

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Postby NTP66 » Tue Jan 12, 2021 12:51 pm

Wait until SPY drops to like 360 (it should once it touches 383), then buy and hold forever...
Out of curiosity, why are you using SPY as the target for when to buy ARKx?

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Postby mikey » Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:03 pm

I just use it as a general feeler for where the market is as a whole...the ARKs are really just amplified version of SPY...so if SPY goes down, ARK flattens out a bit...decent buy opportunity. With SPY exploding, ARKs are a rocket ship...now isn't the best time to buy...

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Postby NTP66 » Tue Jan 12, 2021 1:30 pm

Anything below 365 seems like it'd probably be a decent buy if we're using that as the benchmark.

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