ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19
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ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19
Recent playoffs (since lockout), current era with current formatting (2-2-1-1-1)
Home team (win%)
Game 1: 61.5%
Game 2: 55.9%
Game 3: 53.3%
Game 4: 49.2%
Game 5: 58.7%
Game 6: 54.1%
Game 7: 48.2%
Home team (win%)
Game 1: 61.5%
Game 2: 55.9%
Game 3: 53.3%
Game 4: 49.2%
Game 5: 58.7%
Game 6: 54.1%
Game 7: 48.2%
ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19
So after game 1, it is pretty much 50-50. Home ice no real advantage?
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ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19
I don’t know. With the new playoff format (a growing sample size) and the parity in the league, I think those percentages do show a decent home ice advantage in some games.
ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19
I think you'd really have to get into the full statistical analysis to determine if 5% over 50/50 is significant or not.
With the sample size, it would be close, but I havent done p-value stats in a couple years.
With the sample size, it would be close, but I havent done p-value stats in a couple years.
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ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19
Yes.I don’t know. With the new playoff format (a growing sample size) and the parity in the league, I think those percentages do show a decent home ice advantage in some games.
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ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19
I think you'd really have to get into the full statistical analysis to determine if 5% over 50/50 is significant or not.
With the sample size, it would be close, but I havent done p-value stats in a couple years.
Chlorophyll? More like Borophyll
ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19
I just went through this years games. If I counted right, looks like home wins are 13 and visitors are 11. Slight home ice advantage.
ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19
home teams win less in the playoffs than in the regular season.. home ice advantage isn't a thing. Unless game 1 is worth more than the others?
ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19
"Of course." -Zatkoff, probably.
ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19
in a 7 game series, the higher seed gets 57.14% of the home games.. basically I think the reason home team win % is over 50% at all is because the better team has home ice more often.
ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19
Big if true.
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ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19
Ok, Copernicus
ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19
Makes sense to me.in a 7 game series, the higher seed gets 57.14% of the home games.. basically I think the reason home team win % is over 50% at all is because the better team has home ice more often.
ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19
Ok, Copernicus
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ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19
I thought loud fans = wins?
ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19
I think you'd really have to get into the full statistical analysis to determine if 5% over 50/50 is significant or not.
With the sample size, it would be close, but I havent done p-value stats in a couple years.
Chlorophyll? More like Borophyll
Hey I'm bored at work and stats are only good if you can prove beyond a p=.05
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ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19
Of course it is. Always gives the advantage in the series. Sets the tone.Unless game 1 is worth more than the others?
First goal numbers similar, also valuable. Sets the tone for the game. Dictates strategy, affects matchups, deployment, etc.
Since big sleep, teams win 73.9% when scoring first. Similarly, game 1 home winner wins 76.4% of all series. Game 1 winner wins about 70% of all series.
Hugely impactful. Home ice advantage on-ice and historical data present compelling case.
ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19
...and he only won 42% of his draws, which is a brutal stat. I like Sundqvist, but the Pens badly need a faceoff guy. The less time the bottom D pair spends in their own end without the puck, the better. Speed is one thing, but you've got to possess the puck even to utilize that.Sundqvist is slow as ****.
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ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19
A “faceoff guy” on this team is 3C or 4C. Which means that he wins 1-2 more faceoffs per game than a replacement level player. There’s no point in prioritizing that
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ECQF Game 3: Pens vs Islanders 04/14/19
A 3 or 4 is going to take those draws in the d zone or on the pk. There’s no issue with wanting that guy to be competent
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