mikey's Thread of Penguin Randomness

[shoeshine boy]

The pro scouting team that pushed for Graves is all but gone.

as they should be. they should be out of hockey completely.

[meow]

Cap Space
LD
6’2” 202lbs
Stratford, ON

[iamjs]

This would be a sweet vacation

I looked on Expedia and you can get a week long hotel and a flight for a little over $1k.

Edit: be careful on what is considered a hotel room. Some of the listings show an economy room as 75 sq ft with a shared bathroom.

[Trip McNeely]

Trade for what and sign whom to improve the defense?

Let's not forget:
Letang is 50, but still effective in all 3 zones
Graves is not an NHLer
Joseph is not an NHLer
Koly is not skilled
Timmins is not skilled
Grz is a UFA that we don't like, but he can pass and play
Pickering has the potential to be a two-way player, but 12 points in 60 pro games this year and his NHL-level dynamic skill set seems iffy

So...what's gonna happen. You want to defend better. Does that come with a tactical adjustments? Because we don't play defense as a team. You're gonna remove a puck carrier, you're gonna remove the best outlet passer. Who gets the puck to Crosby?

EK needs a caretaker. It should have been Pettersson but his play has fallen off the last 1.5 years

I’m content with seeing if Pickering can stick with Letang. But Dubas needs to move for a very good partner for Karlsson

[JC2]

cap space is not going to be an issue for this team for the next few years

I was thinking about this last night watching Graves try to play hockey for $4.5M. It's not worth buying him out because his cap really isn't hurting the team right now.

[Trip McNeely]

cap space is not going to be an issue for this team for the next few years

I was thinking about this last night watching Graves try to play hockey for $4.5M. It's not worth buying him out because his cap really isn't hurting the team right now.

Yes. And that why I don’t understand the whole trade EK for cap space. We don’t need cap space right now and if we really did, you try to do something with graves or Hayes or acciari to make it up

[King Colby]

I’d rather have good players than cap space to use on nobody.

Actually nah let’s get futures for karlsson, fill in for him with a guy who makes $5M and isn’t good and then have $5M more in cap space that we can jay off into in january when we’re planning on being sellers again

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

So...what's gonna happen. You want to defend better. Does that come with a tactical adjustments? Because we don't play defense as a team. You're gonna remove a puck carrier, you're gonna remove the best outlet passer. Who gets the puck to Crosby?

We don't need an elite puckmover to be a competent team at outlets. Let's take the 2016 and 17 defenses for example. It was an extraordinarily balanced group with a lot of guys who all had some modicum of defensive competency but also could do a little bit of everything. Of course, that's cheating a little bit because that group was so good that we were able to win back to back cups, but I think it shows that depth and balance is likely more important than being top heavy. Hell we lost Letang for the second year and absolutely dominated everyone we played

as a little exercise: setting aside EK for now, who do you think could be guys on a cup team? For me, I think Letang could be a top pairing guy on a cup winning team and I think Gryz could be the fourth best guy (admittedly I think I like him more than most people). Maybeeeee Kolyachonok and Pickering could be bottom pairing guys on a really good team but other than that, our defensemen are dreadful.

Now for EK, I was thinking about this. Who does he remind you of the most from the back to back Cups years in terms of skillset? To me, he reminds me of Justin Schultz (but obviously an elite version of Schultz). That's not meant as a dig as I really appreciate what Schultz did but ultimately he was a specialist who was subpar on the defensive side and we protected with only ~14 minutes a game (a big bulk of that being on the PP). I don't consider EK an elite defenseman as much as I view him as an elite specialist who is a genuine liability defensively. I personally think the sweet spot for TOI for him would be around 16-17 minutes a game because he's too much of a defensive liability when he's on the ice. Is that "worth" having him and paying 10 mill a year? would he even accept a more specialist role? If no to either of those, I think we could get value out of a trade of a team that still thinks he's Norris trophy winning Erik Karlsson and not most even strength goals against since 2009 Erik Karlsson (apparently the even strength goals against stat only goes back to 2009)

Trade for what and sign whom to improve the defense?

Idk ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ mostly because trades have a lot of variables including the other team's cap situation, desire to get rid of a particular guy, scouting team recognizing that the player is under-utilized, etc. like 10 years later I cannot believe we got Daley for Scuderi straight up. That is the type of **** I'm hopeful that we could get done. We'll have a bit of cap flexibility but it'll be interesting if we make a move for a Marner. Trading Karlsson to free up more space could help for more moves too

Trip mentioned Hague...that could be a good pick up. Ekblad? Pionk? idk

[King Colby]

Ekblad doesn’t have the foot speed to succeed in this system

[Gaucho]

Offensive defenseman appears to be a hard concept to grasp.

[Gaucho]

I mean, trying to restrict EK's playing time is a terrible idea. Maybe the worst. If you have a guy like that you want him out there for as much time as possible, you want the puck on his stick, because if things go well you simply don't spend a lot of time in your own zone. EK's inability or rather reluctance to play actual defense is completely irrelevant. Or anyway should be.

[MR25]

Not that I necessarily agree 100% with dodint's Letang takes over the years, but it's kind of funny to me the amount of angst people get over EK's play when Kris Letang more or less was doing the same thing for years.

[shoeshine boy]

I was thinking about this last night watching Graves try to play hockey for $4.5M. It's not worth buying him out because his cap really isn't hurting the team right now.

I get that argument but Graves is a terrible, TERRIBLE hockey player. he's not worth the AAV he's getting and he's costing us wins when he's not enjoying the popcorn in the press box. surely we can get a better option in here for his money.

[dodint]

Not that I necessarily agree 100% with dodint's Letang takes over the years, but it's kind of funny to me the amount of angst people get over EK's play when Kris Letang more or less was doing the same thing for years.

Having a Norris legacy instead of having to cling to getting some Norris votes a few times messes with the expectations. And also EK is an inherited 'problem' whereas Letang is part of tHe CoRe.

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

Letang is a hell of a lot more competent in his own end than Karlsson

[MR25]

Is he, or did you just come to overlook the flaws because he's been here so long?

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

I believe he is. His biggest problem is decision making but he puts in defensive effort consistently unlike EK

[Gaucho]

Letang is a hell of a lot more competent in his own end than Karlsson

Yes.

[dodint]

I'll give him that, for sure. When they signed EK I knew he was basically a cartoon and level set my expectations as such which is why I don't even get mad about it.

[mikey]

So...what's gonna happen. You want to defend better. Does that come with a tactical adjustments? Because we don't play defense as a team. You're gonna remove a puck carrier, you're gonna remove the best outlet passer. Who gets the puck to Crosby?

We don't need an elite puckmover to be a competent team at outlets. Let's take the 2016 and 17 defenses for example. It was an extraordinarily balanced group with a lot of guys who all had some modicum of defensive competency but also could do a little bit of everything. Of course, that's cheating a little bit because that group was so good that we were able to win back to back cups, but I think it shows that depth and balance is likely more important than being top heavy. Hell we lost Letang for the second year and absolutely dominated everyone we played

I think you kinda got it. I don't think you're realizing how big of a chasm there is between that defense (the Cup teams) and this defense or what this defense even reasonably could be.

Letang playing at a Norris level with high-end movers in Daley, Schultz...competent movers in Maatta and Dumoulin and later Hainsey (who was a top 15 pick I believe), Ian Cole a step below that but very much an NHLer. Then you had three lines of multi-line puck carriers at forward (Crosby, Malkin, Kessel) to compensate for puck carrying disadvantages with Dumoulin and Maatta.

Now, at forward, you have one multi-line carrier (87), Letang can't really do it consistently anymore. ...and that's it. Then you have:
TImmins - can't make simple passes, can make long passes (Anthony Richardson sans the athleticism)
Koly - not a good outlet passer, not skilled enough to carry
Graves - can't do anything with the puck but shoot
etc. etc.

We have Gryz, but he'll be going I assume...that's the only guy in the bottom four that can make consistent NHL passes. And he doesn't fit your mold of "balanced", he can't play defense.

You're just so far away from it, that removing an elite talent might decimate what little (average) offense we do produce. We're below average in 5v5 scoring.

as a little exercise: setting aside EK for now, who do you think could be guys on a cup team? For me, I think Letang could be a top pairing guy on a cup winning team and I think Gryz could be the fourth best guy (admittedly I think I like him more than most people). Maybeeeee Kolyachonok and Pickering could be bottom pairing guys on a really good team but other than that, our defensemen are dreadful.

On a Cup team this year? Letang can still play. Gryz is a 6/7 PP specialist fill in. Koly absolutely no chance. Pickering as a 6/7. Like a Ruhwedel role, sure.

Now for EK, I was thinking about this. Who does he remind you of the most from the back to back Cups years in terms of skillset? To me, he reminds me of Justin Schultz (but obviously an elite version of Schultz). That's not meant as a dig as I really appreciate what Schultz did but ultimately he was a specialist who was subpar on the defensive side and we protected with only ~14 minutes a game (a big bulk of that being on the PP). I don't consider EK an elite defenseman as much as I view him as an elite specialist who is a genuine liability defensively. I personally think the sweet spot for TOI for him would be around 16-17 minutes a game because he's too much of a defensive liability when he's on the ice. Is that "worth" having him and paying 10 mill a year? would he even accept a more specialist role? If no to either of those, I think we could get value out of a trade of a team that still thinks he's Norris trophy winning Erik Karlsson and not most even strength goals against since 2009 Erik Karlsson (apparently the even strength goals against stat only goes back to 2009)

This is the classic Yandle mistake. This is the video game logic that fails to account for the on-ice "personality" that goes into pro scouting. The Rangers acquired Keith Yandle in 2015 and it absolutely was a homerun to fill their biggest need. They needed outlet passing, PP play, and a puck carrier. Yandle, not unlike Karlsson, is all those things. Outside of 60 year old Dan Boyle and the always competent Ryan McDonagh, it was Girardi, Staal and those other boobs...they got to the hash marks, at best, and winged off the window...at center, slow and bald Derek Stepan. MSL was also too old to carry (his mother, too old to carry on...at our expense). Blah blah blah. So they get the perfect guy. And they play him 15 minutes a game and he's horrible.

He's a rhythm player. Those guys can't play that amount time and be effective. They need to play a lot, they need the puck, they aren't bit players. Danny Markov was always a great example of someone that can play 14 minutes and look really effective, but once he goes over 15, he's a scatterbrained idiot. He's a bit player. Wind him up, put him down, let him do his thing, take him off. You never see top line Tyler Kennedy (despite "advanced stats").

By stuffing Karlsson down the lineup, he loses feel for the game. It's not that you get concentrated offensive supremacy and mitigate defense. No, it's the opposite. You get all the defensive warts and then a bunch of turnovers and forced plays to compensate for his lack of shifts. It's the worst of both worlds. You can say "PP specialist" if you like, but again, cold players don't score on power plays. That's why power plays are dramatically less successful in the first 5 minutes of games than the rest of time.

Trade for what and sign whom to improve the defense?

Idk ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ mostly because trades have a lot of variables including the other team's cap situation, desire to get rid of a particular guy, scouting team recognizing that the player is under-utilized, etc. like 10 years later I cannot believe we got Daley for Scuderi straight up. That is the type of **** I'm hopeful that we could get done. We'll have a bit of cap flexibility but it'll be interesting if we make a move for a Marner. Trading Karlsson to free up more space could help for more moves too

Trip mentioned Hague...that could be a good pick up. Ekblad? Pionk? idk

Pionk is just as bad defensively as Karlsson and it's even more annoying to watch because he has that weird palsy arm when he's engaged in rush defense. Let's say Karlsson's pure defensive rating is 8 out of 100. But his offense and his transition defense (because he steals a lot of pucks in the NZ on plays that most players wouldn't dare try for) are 99 out of 100 and 80 out of 100, respectively. With Pionk, sure, you get to 15 out of 100 on defense. But you only get a 60 and a 60 out of the other two. Are you better? I'd say definitively not.

I'd be curious to read what folks here think Nic Hague does. What's the scouting report there?

Ekblad is slow while on PEDs, I can't imagine without. I also am not sure he gets enough discredit for his defensive ability.

I don't know, looking at these names...you certainly have a type. Offensive d-men with big shots that don't skate very well. And your preference is to use these guys in place of a guy with basically the same characteristics except way better skating and hockey sense than all three of those guys combined.

The only way it gets even a little interesting is if somehow those guys keep all three of their going rates (Hague at $3 mil, Pionk at $6 mil, Ekblad at $7.5 mil or whatever) and you could somehow swap Karlsson at $10 mil for all three. I'd at least consider that because it gives me NHL defensemen, which we generally don't have. But that's only because of our sorry state of affairs...in any other situation, I wouldn't do that. I certainly wouldn't be interested in losing Karlsson to net any one of those guys AND a 1st round pick (or whatever) for my trouble.

[mikey]

I mean, trying to restrict EK's playing time is a terrible idea. Maybe the worst. If you have a guy like that you want him out there for as much time as possible, you want the puck on his stick, because if things go well you simply don't spend a lot of time in your own zone. EK's inability or rather reluctance to play actual defense is completely irrelevant. Or anyway should be.

Sorry, didn't read ahead. Nailed it.

[mikey]

Not that I necessarily agree 100% with dodint's Letang takes over the years, but it's kind of funny to me the amount of angst people get over EK's play when Kris Letang more or less was doing the same thing for years.

I don't agree with this.

[mikey]

Letang is a hell of a lot more competent in his own end than Karlsson

Absolutely no question.

Don't agree with the decision making remark. Folks have bandied that about over the years, but I'm super sensitive to hockey sense concerns, and I don't have them with Letang to nearly the degree that most fans seem to...

[MR25]

Not that I necessarily agree 100% with dodint's Letang takes over the years, but it's kind of funny to me the amount of angst people get over EK's play when Kris Letang more or less was doing the same thing for years.

I don't agree with this.

The biggest comparable I have is Letang's play in the 2013 Islanders series. IMO that was Letang at his worst, and it's more or less on par with EK.

Maybe it's not to the same degree, but it definitely feels like a "devil we know versus the devil we don't" kind of deal.

[mikey]

Late Bylsma era things? Sure. That was pond hockey for all. I wouldn't say that represents anyone accurately. That's beer goggles stuff. Hell, Sid even said something controversial in the media during that time haha