hockey analytics

Avyran
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Postby Avyran » Thu Aug 13, 2015 2:35 pm

I have no problems saying that I trust mikey or meow (or FPF, or you, slappy) more than Olczyk or other national pundits when it comes to the Pens. I may not have the split-second reaction ability to score a top-shelfer like Olczyk does, or years of experiencing the speed of the NHL, but I trust the judgment of someone who consistently watches one team and understands their style, purpose, and strengths/weaknesses versus a national pundit who reads the stats & hears a couple sentences or words from a person they know.

Now, if we talk Kevin Allen for USA Today, or Pierre LeBrun, or the TSN folk, that's a different story.

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Postby MalkinIsMyHomeboy » Thu Aug 13, 2015 2:36 pm

Also, Olzyck is an equally bad coach so there's that...

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Postby mikey » Thu Aug 13, 2015 2:45 pm

I have no problems saying that I trust mikey or meow (or FPF, or you, slappy) more than Olczyk or other national pundits when it comes to the Pens. I may not have the split-second reaction ability to score a top-shelfer like Olczyk does, or years of experiencing the speed of the NHL, but I trust the judgment of someone who consistently watches one team and understands their style, purpose, and strengths/weaknesses versus a national pundit who reads the stats & hears a couple sentences or words from a person they know.

Now, if we talk Kevin Allen for USA Today, or Pierre LeBrun, or the TSN folk, that's a different story.
Right, I agree largely. Ray Ferraro and some of those guys, yeah, no way...Chicken Parm knows his stuff...

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Postby meow » Thu Aug 13, 2015 2:49 pm

I know I've said it before, but Justin Bourne is a genius if you ask me. He's got a great blend of hockey smarts, understanding of the team dynamic and writing ability that makes his work dynamite.

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Postby mikey » Thu Aug 13, 2015 2:51 pm

Also, Olzyck is an equally bad coach so there's that...
Didn't players complain that they had no system and their practices were a waste of time...I think I recall one player saying that we just ran around like chickens with their heads cut off...

If I remember right, it was considered a pretty big running joke that Olczyk was the coach at even the Ivan Hlinka Tournament in 2006...

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Postby the errey i breathe » Thu Aug 13, 2015 7:01 pm

I think that advanced stats/analytics need a lot more work and research to be effective in sports outside of baseball. Baseball is a team game where everyone pretty much performs individually. That is easier to break down. In cooperative team sports you're more likely to get lots of noise and a bunch of garbage once sample sizes get large enough. At this point I think they do a good job of measuring what they set out to but I don't think that this is anything truly groundbreaking for the sport just yet.

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Postby mikey » Thu Aug 13, 2015 9:13 pm

Baseball is full of granular one-on-one matchups...hockey is not, it multi-man, versatile matchups with extreme fluidity. That's a key distinction.

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Postby slappybrown » Fri Aug 14, 2015 12:19 pm

Holy ****, that was what was happening. Good times.

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Postby mikey » Fri Aug 14, 2015 12:23 pm

So are we headed towards slappy claiming Ed Olczyk is a quality and insightful broadcaster that he can actually learn from something from during a telecast? Because I'm excited if this is what's happening here.

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Postby slappybrown » Fri Aug 14, 2015 12:38 pm

Either way works.

First, my post referenced specifically hockey systems and strategy. But, let's turn to broadcasting since you're changing the argument to cover that piece. I'm unaware of you having broadcast experience -- and if you do, he's obviously much more accomplished in the field than you are so its a fair presumption to think he's better than you -- but assuming that you don't, I'm more than comfortable wagering anything you want that you would hilariously crash and burn on a national NHL broadcast trying to cohesively explain your thoughts in real time, while trying to keep track of end to end action while a producer is talking in one of your ears and you have to pay attention to what your partner is saying. I don't think that is a true representation of what he would do if you put him in a film room and asked to describe the strategic nuance of what was happening.

And yes, in the latter scenario -- sitting in a film room with no time pressures explaining the system and strategy -- I'm working on the assumption he's got you beat there as well. And by a fair margin. If you want to tell me what your qualifications or justification for why you're better than in this second arena, feel free. Coaching club roller hockey IIRC and writing for HF is miles ahead of me in terms of hockey strategy, but absent me missing something, you're behind the former NHL player and (albeit failed) NHL Coach who also gets paid millions to broadcast the sport in terms of knowing the game's nuances. You are obviously free to feel otherwise and I like your moxie.

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Postby meow » Fri Aug 14, 2015 12:40 pm

If it doesn't involve "throwing you hands toward the crossbar" or "rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrright there!" it is probably over Eddie's head.

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Postby slappybrown » Fri Aug 14, 2015 12:43 pm

Well, in that case, I look forward to the day when you guys have hockey jobs, coaching or personnel, and can come back and kick us some inside info.

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Postby meow » Fri Aug 14, 2015 12:46 pm

We try, but since it isn't fancy stats, I don't think you get it.

Which is no big deal.

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Postby Avyran » Fri Aug 14, 2015 12:47 pm

I would trust Eddie Olczyk, the hockey player / regular person, to explain things and provide deep insight into how the game works, especially if he is solely focusing on that particular situation.

I don't trust Eddie Olczyk, the national broadcaster. He's there to make the game entertaining. It's why I trust local broadcasters much more than national ones, and this is cross-sport; while going for entertainment, they're also talking to a more particular audience that is focused more on one team, and thus can act as if people know who certain players are.

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Postby columbia » Fri Aug 14, 2015 12:49 pm

slappy:

Image

meow:

Image

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Postby mikey » Fri Aug 14, 2015 12:50 pm

Nothing to do with his on-camera presence...just his hockey knowledge. Being that we both don't hang out with Olczyk, our only exposure to him would be on television. And as meow and I both said, if that's his best - which we don't know - but if that's the cap, then I'm gonna bet on myself...because in all honesty, the impression I get is that he knows horses better than hockey...I don't doubt that he's better on television than I would be...as I only have radio experience, and a minimal amount at that...I'm unlikely to be anywhere near as good as he is on television...

As for the hockey knowledge, well, his "qualifications" - that is, being gifted the position of NHL head coach after being Mike Lange's drinking buddy for a few years - have mine beat soundly. But like I said, I could show you a whole wall of degrees but it would amount to a hill of beans if it's not applied...but if how he talks and demonstrates his knowledge is anywhere near the extent of his ability to do so, then I'll bet on myself now and future...as he has a number of years on me as it is...

And, as I said, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt that he is handicapped by production that he has to repeat the same three things over and over on a telecast and force-feed a buzzword to fit the pre-game narrative - even if it's not really happening - but hopefully he has more to offer than that...anecdotal evidence from those in the game/business suggest otherwise, but I'll even dismiss that as hearsay to give further benefit...

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Postby Beveridge » Fri Aug 14, 2015 12:53 pm

This thread delivers on a Friday afternoon.

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Postby meow » Fri Aug 14, 2015 12:53 pm

I'm not that cute.

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Postby MalkinIsMyHomeboy » Fri Aug 14, 2015 12:57 pm

Image

columbia
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Postby columbia » Fri Aug 14, 2015 2:15 pm

Outside of Errey, who amuses me, I generally treat hockey announcers as white noise.

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Postby slappybrown » Fri Aug 14, 2015 4:17 pm

We try, but since it isn't fancy stats, I don't think you get it.

Which is no big deal.
????

I ask mikey all the time for his opinion on players. I @'d him a week or so ago to get his thoughts on kris Russell who I didnt know much about beyond what I could google.

In this instance, I'm "defending" an old school guy who's never indicated a love of fancy stats.

So, in sum, your post is without merit.

To the extent you have inside access to the nhl front offices and coaches, I'm all ears. Fire away.

I don't think you're suggesting you did so I'm not sure what your point is. What inside info do you have beyond your experience collegiately?
Last edited by slappybrown on Fri Aug 14, 2015 4:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby slappybrown » Fri Aug 14, 2015 4:19 pm

Outside of Errey, who amuses me, I generally treat hockey announcers as white noise.
Largely where I'm at, though I have a soft spot for doc and I generally view the Canadian broadcasts as superior to the American versions, which is hardly controversial.

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Postby slappybrown » Fri Aug 14, 2015 4:20 pm

Nothing to do with his on-camera presence...just his hockey knowledge. Being that we both don't hang out with Olczyk, our only exposure to him would be on television. And as meow and I both said, if that's his best - which we don't know - but if that's the cap, then I'm gonna bet on myself...because in all honesty, the impression I get is that he knows horses better than hockey...I don't doubt that he's better on television than I would be...as I only have radio experience, and a minimal amount at that...I'm unlikely to be anywhere near as good as he is on television...

As for the hockey knowledge, well, his "qualifications" - that is, being gifted the position of NHL head coach after being Mike Lange's drinking buddy for a few years - have mine beat soundly. But like I said, I could show you a whole wall of degrees but it would amount to a hill of beans if it's not applied...but if how he talks and demonstrates his knowledge is anywhere near the extent of his ability to do so, then I'll bet on myself now and future...as he has a number of years on me as it is...

And, as I said, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt that he is handicapped by production that he has to repeat the same three things over and over on a telecast and force-feed a buzzword to fit the pre-game narrative - even if it's not really happening - but hopefully he has more to offer than that...anecdotal evidence from those in the game/business suggest otherwise, but I'll even dismiss that as hearsay to give further benefit...
I genuinely hope you one day get paid to post what you do here for free. I assume you do too.

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Postby mikey » Fri Aug 14, 2015 4:41 pm

:thumb: Thanks.

That's the hope, and I'd be lying if I said that I haven't had some meaningful conversations with people that are already there and want to get me there too...it's in the works and I'm working towards it...

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Postby slappybrown » Fri Aug 14, 2015 4:47 pm

Good; when you take Olczyk's job you can come back here and read us complaining about you.

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