Are the Blues in prime position to have Tarasenko stolen from them?

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Are the Blues in prime position to have Tarasenko stolen from them?

Postby FLPensFan » Wed Jun 03, 2015 4:13 pm

In doing some research on this year's RFA crop, I started wondering to myself......would anyone have the cajones to try and steal Vladimir Tarasenko from the St. Louis Blues.

I'm specifically looking at teams like Arizona, Buffalo, Florida, New Jersey, Toronto, Winnipeg, or Washington. These are all teams near the bottom of committed salary for next season. I'm not sure Arizona, Buffalo, or Winnipeg would be teams willing to spend up to the cap ceiling.

First, why do I see this as possible?
-St. Louis has 10 forwards committed for next year, 4 defenseman, and 1 goalie. If the cap goes up to 71M, that will leave them roughly 15M to sign at least 2 forwards, 2 defenseman, and a goalie (5), and more likely 3 forwards, 3 defenseman, and a goalie (7) players total.
-They have Tarasenko, Bortuzzo, and Jake Allen as RFAs next season. Bortuzzo won't get much of a raise, and would be expendable if the result was losing Tarasenko. Jake Allen is also due for a raise over his current salary.
-Tarasenko is easily the best RFA on the market. Ideally, would like to see one or two more seasons of the same output, but he is in prime position to be a superstar for years to come. Someone may be willing to take a gamble that would help launch their club forward.

Of the teams I mentioned above, I'm most intrigued by Florida, New Jersey, Toronto, or Washington as being suitors for Tarasenko.

Florida - They have 18 players committed, and have a little over 18M available in space. Florida has so many young players on their team (Barkov, Bjugstad, Huberdeau, Trocheck, Hayes, Pirri) up front, they could easily deal with not having a first round pick for a year (or two) as compensation. Further, if they offer sheeted Tarasenko, they could then deal 1 or two of their other young players (Trocheck, Hayes, Pirri) to regain some picks or help sure up their defense. Huberdeau and Hayes are notable RFAs for them. Imagine offering Tarasenko a 5 year deal for 8M per season. Panthers could deal Hayes to regain picks and not have to pay him. Panthers could buyout Bolland to shed his horrible contract and free up 3.7M more in space. Huberdeau-Barkov-Tarasenko, Pirri-Bjugstad-Jagr would be a pretty decent top 2 lines, with Jokinen-Trocheck-Boyes as the 3rd line. Bolland is currently the highest paid forward on the team. Huberdeau isn't likely to get more than 4M yet, until he has another good season or two of output. Barkov will be RFA next summer. Campbell's 7M could be off the books by the trade deadline. Lots of room here for Tarasenko.....but with all the young guys they have, is it needed.....does it vault them that much forward?

New Jersey- Ray Shero decides to come onto the scene and make a splash. NJ has 15 players signed for next year, and are currently UNDER the cap floor. Elias, Ruutu, and Zubrus come off the books at the end of the year, freeing up ANOTHER 12.4M. Plenty of room for Shero to make a big offer sheet to add some young star power up front. Zajac, Cammalleri, Henrique, Tarasenko would be a good start for them up front. They already have a lot of young guys on defense, and Cory Schneider in net. Would Ray/Lou be willing to give up the necessary picks to construct a contract in a way to prevent St. Louis from resigning Tarasenko? Is adding Tarasenko alone enough to put them on the fast track to getting back into the playoffs. Unfortunately, I think they would need more than just one player.

Toronto - It's rebuild time. What better way to start then getting another impact forward? Toronto has about as much space as Florida. Their biggest issue is they need a superstar center, not another winger to go with Kessel and JVR. Tarasenko would give them another great winger, but they don't have the superstar center they would need to fill out the forwards and make it worth it. The UFA class is not strong enough for them to make a run

Washington - Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-Tarasenko as your 1st line over the boards. Backstrom-Johansson and someone else as your 2nd line. Washington has 12 players committed to next year, and at a 71M cap, almost 25M in space. Johannson, Kuznetsov, and Holtby all are RFAs who are in line for raises. Could getting another star like Tarasenko be just what the Caps need to finally get them into the finals. Guys like Laich, Brouwer, Chimera, Wilson, Latta give them a nice mix of gritty bottom 6 depth. Do they have enough left to fill out the defense? Orpik, Nisky, Alzner, and Carlson is a good start. Again, Kuznetsov and Johansson are young guys up front already, Burakovsky maybe a season away, Jakub Vrana still unknown if he can fill out and become a scoring threat in the NHL....add in Tarasenko, and maybe you can live without the 1st rounder the next two years, and the 2nd and 3rd rounder.

For the heck of it......what's the best run the Penguins could make at Tarasenko? Start by trading Kunitz for a pick, Dupuis retiring, and Scuderi being bought out. Trade Beau Bennett for a draft pick. If those were to happen, Penguins would roughly 19M available. That also assumes Cole and Dumoulin are resigned for QO's only, and Zatkoff is Fleury's backup. Sign Tarasenko for 5 years @ 8M a year. I purposely keep the years low and not the max to provide some insurance that if Tarasenko flat lines or regresses, you aren't stuck with him for 8 years. You give him a year or two to make sure he plays at or above his current level, and if he happened to start regressing. You end up with Crosby, Malkin, Perron, Hornqvist, Tarasenko, and possibly Kapanen as your top 6. You have room to up Perron to maybe 5M a year after this season. You trade Sutter at the deadline and get a cheaper 3C to make sure you can afford raises to Maata next season, and Pouliot down the road. You let Spaling walk and get cheaper there too. Sutter and Spaling gone at season's end opens up another 5.5M, and the cap could go up more. The downside.....you give up your next to first round picks, plus a 2nd and a 3rd. If Kapanen works out, you've got Kapanen, Tarasenko, and possibly Sundqvist as your under 25 youth up front. Hornqvist and Perron are still under 30.

So, what do you think? Obviously STL can ALWAYS match, be over the cap, and firesale to get under the cap by season's start. Do you think any of these teams (or any other) could make a play for Tarasenko? Is the GM backlash too great? The picks and contract too expensive of a risk? I use 8M for Tarasenko, as I think that would be a really hard number for STL to match (with Jake Allen RFA this year, Schwartz and Jaskin RFA next year) and fill out the rest of their team this year. They'd have to probably trade Backes or Berglund as a start, and maybe Ott as well. They have a little over 16M invested in their top 3 defenseman.....If you believe Tarasenko is going to continue to grow and be a star, top player in the league, is 8M a season really asking for too much?

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Are the Blues in prime position to have Tarasenko stolen from them?

Postby Beveridge » Thu Jun 04, 2015 7:04 am

Never discount Philly when it comes to RFA offers. I don't care what their cap situation is.

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Are the Blues in prime position to have Tarasenko stolen from them?

Postby mikey » Thu Jun 04, 2015 7:26 am

I know the KHL is kinda down right now, but don't underestimate the richest clubs, they can still throw some bucks around if they had too...

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Are the Blues in prime position to have Tarasenko stolen from them?

Postby Clams Herbert » Thu Jun 04, 2015 12:22 pm

If it comes down to losing Tarasenko, no way do they not try to move Berglund for picks or something.

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Are the Blues in prime position to have Tarasenko stolen from them?

Postby FLPensFan » Thu Jun 04, 2015 2:11 pm

If it comes down to losing Tarasenko, no way do they not try to move Berglund for picks or something.
I agree, but I also think they tried to move Berglund most of last year without success. They may have just been asking too much in return. But with Pietrangelo, Shattenkirk, and Bouwmeester making just over 16M; Statsny, Steen, and Oshie making just under 17M between them, adding keeping Tarasenko in the mix is going to require them to shakeup the team.

They might get lucky and get him to accept a bridge deal for 3-4M for 2 years to give them some room. But Tarasenko and Jake Allen are RFAs due for raises this year, Schwartz next year, and Jaskin the year after.

The Shea Weber offer sheet I think was worth it because he is a top defender in the league and a game changer. Penner and O'Reilly offer sheets were not worth it......both just caused teams to over-inflate their salaries. They were/are good players, but not elite level. Tarasenko really shows the promise to be elite on offense. I've got to believe someone tries to take a shot at him

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Are the Blues in prime position to have Tarasenko stolen from them?

Postby Avyran » Thu Jun 04, 2015 2:14 pm

Do you think Tarasenko would accept a contract to any of those places, though? Maybe the Caps...

And you really think Tarasenko is a 5 years, 8 million guy? (Not meant incredulously.)

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Are the Blues in prime position to have Tarasenko stolen from them?

Postby shmenguin » Thu Jun 04, 2015 2:24 pm

And you really think Tarasenko is a 5 years, 8 million guy? (Not meant incredulously.)
in a vacuum? maybe not. but semin got 7 mill, and tarasenko is worth at least 1 million more than him.

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Are the Blues in prime position to have Tarasenko stolen from them?

Postby Clams Herbert » Thu Jun 04, 2015 3:24 pm

I mean, the potential is there, but he had this one blazing season...I'd give him $5 million easy on a bridge deal. But any team giving up the picks for someone that is for the most part still unproven is crazy. He COULD be a stud. Probably will, even. But this season could've been a fluke.

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Are the Blues in prime position to have Tarasenko stolen from them?

Postby mikey » Thu Jun 04, 2015 3:44 pm

Tarasenko is a star in this league right now. Take it to the bank. If you can steal him, you do it.

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Are the Blues in prime position to have Tarasenko stolen from them?

Postby meow » Thu Jun 04, 2015 3:46 pm

I'd give him $8mil for 5 years and not even blink. Totally worth it.

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Are the Blues in prime position to have Tarasenko stolen from them?

Postby Factorial » Thu Jun 04, 2015 4:04 pm

And you really think Tarasenko is a 5 years, 8 million guy? (Not meant incredulously.)
in a vacuum? maybe not. but semin got 7 mill, and tarasenko is worth at least 1 million more than him.
So is Craig Adams.

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Are the Blues in prime position to have Tarasenko stolen from them?

Postby FLPensFan » Thu Jun 04, 2015 4:41 pm

And you really think Tarasenko is a 5 years, 8 million guy? (Not meant incredulously.)
in a vacuum? maybe not. but semin got 7 mill, and tarasenko is worth at least 1 million more than him.
Right now, no, he's probably not worth 8M a year. But if he maintains his current pace or improves, he's going to be an elite talent in this league. And if you are a team like Florida, NJ, or Toronto, that has no "elite" superstar, why not take a shot at the guy. He was just under a point per game player this year. He's got 10 playoff goals in 13 playoff games the past 2 years. I think he's the real deal, and you are hedging your bets that by the last year or two, 8M is a bargain.

Consequently, Jeremy Rutherford, beat writer for the Blues, had a chat session today. Not specifically asked this question, but his answer to what he expects Tarasenko to get this summer was in the 6.5-7M range already....so 8M probably isn't enough at this point to not get STL to match. You'd probably have to go 10M-12M.

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Are the Blues in prime position to have Tarasenko stolen from them?

Postby Clams Herbert » Fri Jun 05, 2015 10:35 am

That is freaking insane.

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Are the Blues in prime position to have Tarasenko stolen from them?

Postby Kraftster » Wed Jun 10, 2015 7:39 am

Add me to the club that would pay $8M without flinching.

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Are the Blues in prime position to have Tarasenko stolen from them?

Postby Silentom » Wed Jun 10, 2015 8:14 am

Add me to the club that would pay $8M without flinching.
Myself, as well. :thumb:

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Are the Blues in prime position to have Tarasenko stolen from them?

Postby FLPensFan » Wed Jun 10, 2015 9:36 am

Add me to the club that would pay $8M without flinching.
Myself, as well. :thumb:
Yep, me too. Latest out there has St. Louis trying to move Oshie or Berglund, two guys rumored to be on the block most of last year, in order to make some space available for Tarasenko's new deal.

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Are the Blues in prime position to have Tarasenko stolen from them?

Postby mikey » Wed Jun 10, 2015 9:40 am

Here's a time where those four first round picks are worth it. Kid is a star.

But yeah, dump Oshie...it's not to saddle up and ride here for St. Louis. Oshie has yet to play a playoff game in his career, dump him...

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Are the Blues in prime position to have Tarasenko stolen from them?

Postby King Colby » Wed Jun 10, 2015 12:15 pm

I'd offer 5 years 50 mill and not flinch

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Are the Blues in prime position to have Tarasenko stolen from them?

Postby Clams Herbert » Wed Jun 10, 2015 12:46 pm

Sheesh. Seems weird to have anyone on the team make more in a cap hit than Geno.

Perron-Crosby-Tarasenko
X-Malkin-Hornqvist

Doesn't really matter who the X is.

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Are the Blues in prime position to have Tarasenko stolen from them?

Postby columbia » Wed Jun 10, 2015 12:51 pm

How exactly do yinz plan on icing a bottom 6?

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Are the Blues in prime position to have Tarasenko stolen from them?

Postby mikey » Wed Jun 10, 2015 1:16 pm

Bottom six...? I'm afraid I don't understand. Obviously you double shift the Crosby-Tarasenko unit whenever you can...then to keep Malkin in rhythm, you gotta get him some extra shifts and I figure whatever time is left we'd be spending on the power play...

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Are the Blues in prime position to have Tarasenko stolen from them?

Postby Kraftster » Wed Jun 10, 2015 6:18 pm

How exactly do yinz plan on icing a bottom 6?
Come on, hasn't this postseason been an endorsement for constantly worrying about finding the "right" top six winger(s)? Who needs depth.

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Are the Blues in prime position to have Tarasenko stolen from them?

Postby MR25 » Wed Jun 10, 2015 6:27 pm

I would say this postseason was more about 4 of the top 6 defensemen being out...

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Are the Blues in prime position to have Tarasenko stolen from them?

Postby Kraftster » Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:57 am

I would say this postseason was more about 4 of the top 6 defensemen being out...
How exactly do yinz plan on icing a bottom 6?
Come on, hasn't this NHL postseason been an endorsement for constantly worrying about finding the "right" top six winger(s)? Who needs depth.

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