Making It Interesting (Sports Betting Thread)

[mikey]

$100 on every underdog yesterday (except 16s) = +$1026

[Orlando Penguin]

$100 on every underdog yesterday (except 16s) = +$1026

Stop making me cry.

[Dickie Dunn]

Oregon **** me hard yesterday. Had 3 +3000 parlays waiting on their victory.

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

there was a story a few weeks ago about a fringe NBA player being involved with a "controversy" regarding his player props having a massive amount of action; likely indicating that he was tipping bettors off (and them betting the unders)

well...he just got banned from the NBA for life lol

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

ha ok yeah, this'll do it

[MWB]

FAFO…

On another note, anyone ever bet much baseball? Seems like all the stats lend itself to good opportunities, but guess the book knows how to use that info the best.

[mikey]

You generally need to be a total degen to win at baseball in my opinion...you have to break it down into really small pieces...I'm a fan of no-run first inning betting (NRFI), you can do 60 or 65% on that during the year with some research...

[MWB]

Yeah, I’ve looked a little at that, along with team to win first five, looking at guys to not get hits, or parlay a not get a hit with a get a hit. My most success so far is first five innings. I used to love fantasy baseball and baseball stats in general, so this kinda scratches that itch.

[mikey]

Of course, the best thing is like a six-leg homerun parlay...that's how you get some foldin' money...

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

mikey’s love for Christine Michael is second only to his love for parlays

[mikey]

Haha wow I forgot all about him.

And yeah, parlays are how you get rich.

I hit a nice little 5-legger last night, not only did I have the parlay, but I had the RR4, and I had an individual bet on each leg.
Ott ml
CBJ +1.5
Det ml
Wsh ml
Matthews o4.5 shots

Total investment netted me about 25:1.

[JC2]

If Porter was an NBA star as opposed to a bench player would he have been banned?

Curious Shoheis want to know...

Pinto following...

[MWB]

I was talking to a buddy at work today about the round robin stuff. I guess it’s nice insurance and a nice bonus on parlays? But are you always using the round robin when your parlay?

[MWB]

If Porter was an NBA star as opposed to a bench player would he have been banned?

Curious Shoheis want to know...

Pinto following...

I think so. You just can’t have a betting scandal in your sport, with as much money as these leagues have tied into gambling.

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

when’s the last time a pro was caught betting against their team? even Pete Rose didn’t stoop that low

[MrKennethTKangaroo]

I’m wondering if betting against your own team is worse than what Tim donaghy did.

[mikey]

Yeah, I was gonna say, the NBA had a network of game-rigging officials...I don't think all of them got banned. Just Donaghy, right?

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

yeah there’s significant circumstantial evidence that an active ref, Scott Foster was in cahoots with Donaghy. I love basketball but it’s a greasy story


tbh this is one reason why I really appreciate the NHL. I think it has the most balanced and dare I say trustworthy refs in any sport

[mikey]

I was talking to a buddy at work today about the round robin stuff. I guess it’s nice insurance and a nice bonus on parlays? But are you always using the round robin when your parlay?

You got it exactly. It's expensive insurance or a big fat bonus. But I do usually have a very low bet RR and it's usually only for "miss by 1" scenarios.

So, for instance, for simple math...

5 leg parlay is +2200

$10 pays $220.

That's good. But let's say you go RR4 underneath of it, just so you don't lose on an empty net goal or some dumb bounce in overtime...

So, you go $2 a piece on the five combinations "underneath" the parlay (as I call it).

Those combinations and those payouts are:
1-2-3-4 = $27.92
1-2-3-5 = $21.20
1-2-4-5 = $29.83
1-3-4-5 = $30.14
2-3-4-5 = $15.91

So, you see that $10 investment pay 3:2 to 3:1 all the way through (and this parlay that I did was fairly weak in terms of value...no big plus plays, but also no real significant minus plays either). So there's your insurance, right? You can be wrong, you can be wrong on your first bet if you want, and your night is still alive and you still have a shot at being plus money.

But the nice bonus part comes along and you get an extra $125 on that $10.

There's a bell curve effect with the highest possible combinations in the middle. So, on larger parlays, it's important to identify your "goals".

For instance, if you're betting on all 12 games in the NHL one night to end 3:3 after 60 minutes...you're not going to bet on 11 out of 12 to hit, right? That's almost a statistical impossibility. But you might pick every combination of 3's. And when it's 3 at +1300, that's a really nice payout ($5 pays about $14,000).

But like anything else, if you go cold for a bit, it adds up fast. The nice thing is that you don't have to hit that often for it to work out haha

[JC2]

If Porter was an NBA star as opposed to a bench player would he have been banned?

Curious Shoheis want to know...

Pinto following...

I think so. You just can’t have a betting scandal in your sport, with as much money as these leagues have tied into gambling.

Well, yes... any betting scandal is bad. Shohei is right in the middle of one, and Pinto just served a suspension for one...

Edit: On top of multiple NFL players last year...

[MWB]

The stuff from this year, before Porter, was pretty players just betting, and not so much a “scandal” right? Porter went beyond that and was betting on his own games and doing things like leaving the game early to impact bets. I think if a star player did something like that they would also be banned. This is just a different level of scandal.

Betting scandals were bad before, but with leagues now tied to books it’s a different animal. If the donoughy thing had happened today, I think anyone at all associated with it would be banned permanently.

[MWB]

I was talking to a buddy at work today about the round robin stuff. I guess it’s nice insurance and a nice bonus on parlays? But are you always using the round robin when your parlay?

You got it exactly. It's expensive insurance or a big fat bonus. But I do usually have a very low bet RR and it's usually only for "miss by 1" scenarios.

So, for instance, for simple math...

5 leg parlay is +2200

$10 pays $220.

That's good. But let's say you go RR4 underneath of it, just so you don't lose on an empty net goal or some dumb bounce in overtime...

So, you go $2 a piece on the five combinations "underneath" the parlay (as I call it).

Those combinations and those payouts are:
1-2-3-4 = $27.92
1-2-3-5 = $21.20
1-2-4-5 = $29.83
1-3-4-5 = $30.14
2-3-4-5 = $15.91

So, you see that $10 investment pay 3:2 to 3:1 all the way through (and this parlay that I did was fairly weak in terms of value...no big plus plays, but also no real significant minus plays either). So there's your insurance, right? You can be wrong, you can be wrong on your first bet if you want, and your night is still alive and you still have a shot at being plus money.

But the nice bonus part comes along and you get an extra $125 on that $10.

There's a bell curve effect with the highest possible combinations in the middle. So, on larger parlays, it's important to identify your "goals".

For instance, if you're betting on all 12 games in the NHL one night to end 3:3 after 60 minutes...you're not going to bet on 11 out of 12 to hit, right? That's almost a statistical impossibility. But you might pick every combination of 3's. And when it's 3 at +1300, that's a really nice payout ($5 pays about $14,000).

But like anything else, if you go cold for a bit, it adds up fast. The nice thing is that you don't have to hit that often for it to work out haha

Thanks for the explanation.

[willeyeam]

Pretty sure the games porter bet against the Raptors, he was in the G league. His real f up was betting under his player props and then sitting out and only playing three minutes due to "illness"

[Dickie Dunn]

Baseball betting is tough. Starting last season I began following a publicly available model and am at roughly a 60% win rate but with the vig I'm barely breaking even. Where I've had the most success is live betting games I'm actually paying attention to, but that's impossible to do large scale and largely relies on intuition. Mets up 1 and Pirates are turning to their **** bullpen? You bet I'm gonna hammer Mets -1.5 at plus odds. Also not uncommon to see the O/U inflate wildly if a couple runs are scored early, but games typically settle down and don't turn into a run fest. Easiest thing to do is fade garbage teams but betting 2 units to win 1 and then enduring an upset sucks.

[robbiestoupe]

All right, I'm in for that.

o/u 1600.5, I got the under.

The following events void the bet:
NHL lockout
NHLPA strike
If any two seasons for the remainder of Crosby's healthy career are reduced in games by 25% or more (<=61 games)
Any other materially damaging event (i.e. nuclear war with Russia)

The following events do not void the bet:
Crosby injury
The Penguins being garbage, drafting garbage players, signing garbage players
Any other hockey-specific events

We have a bet with financial considerations and a board-related consideration agreed upon. mikey wins if Crosby finishes his career with 1600 or fewer career regular season NHL points...

5 points shy despite the garbage clause