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MalkinIsMyHomeboy
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Postby MalkinIsMyHomeboy » Tue Dec 01, 2020 3:16 pm

it frustrated me yesterday that after Richard Rodgers caught the hail mary TD, it took them forever to point out that he caught one of Aaron Rodgers' hail marys a few years ago. That was literally the first thing I thought of after he caught it but it took them 3 minutes to mention it

CBear3
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Postby CBear3 » Tue Dec 01, 2020 5:11 pm

So Frank Schwab apparently covers betting for Yahoo Sports. And yet, he is also apparently the only person on Earth who does not know that if down by 14, and you just scored, and you know you have to be going for onside kick, then going for 2-point conversion is the optimal strategy...

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-bad-beat-e ... 26365.html
Honest question, why?

willeyeam
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Postby willeyeam » Tue Dec 01, 2020 5:39 pm

So Frank Schwab apparently covers betting for Yahoo Sports. And yet, he is also apparently the only person on Earth who does not know that if down by 14, and you just scored, and you know you have to be going for onside kick, then going for 2-point conversion is the optimal strategy...

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-bad-beat-e ... 26365.html
Honest question, why?
The odds of a 2 point conversion are over 50%. So theoretically, if you miss the first one, stats say you're likely to go 1 for 2 and tie it up next try. And if you get the first one, then you're a TD and XP away from a win

Tomas
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Postby Tomas » Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:18 am

So Frank Schwab apparently covers betting for Yahoo Sports. And yet, he is also apparently the only person on Earth who does not know that if down by 14, and you just scored, and you know you have to be going for onside kick, then going for 2-point conversion is the optimal strategy...

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-bad-beat-e ... 26365.html
Honest question, why?
There are many more thorough explanations of the problem if you google it, but, basically, the gist is:

If you convert the first 2-point attempt, you WILL WIN THE GAME.

Since you know that you will go for onside kick, you can forget the (very likely scenario) that the onside kick would not be converted, and so you focus on the victory maximization of the outcome of two consecutive TD drives while being down by 14.

Also, to make the numbers simple, assume that the probability of 2-point conversion is only 40% (it is more), and that the probability of point-after-touchdown is 100% (it is less, actually below 95% after the most recent rule change). Both of those assumptions work against going for 2 - but I choose them to prove a point. In this case:

If you convert the first 2-point attempt (40% chance), scoring simple 7-point TD on the 2nd drive will win the game (i.e you have 40% chance to win the game after converting).
IN ADDITION:
If you do not convert the first 2-point attempt (60% chance), you now have to go for the 2nd try on the 2-point conversion to get the game into OT - and you will get into OT with 0.6*0.4 = 24% likelihood. If OT gives you 50/50 chance, you win the game with 24%/2 = 12% likelihood.

So, going for 2 gives you 40%+12% = 52% of the chance of victory, compared to 50% chance based on scoring 2 "simple" TDs and tying the game.

If you plug in more realistic parameters (2-point conversion in high 40s, PAT conversion below 95%) the advantage of "going for 2" is far more substantial (with 94-95% PAT conversion, I believe going for 2 is optimal as long as the likelihood of 2-point conversion is 35%).

The interesting thing (for me) is that coaches understand this, and quite a lot of them correctly go for it - but the announcers either play dumb or are dumb... (And, of course, there is no learning curve, because in reality the play sequence maximizes the outcome that has next-to-nothing chance of happening...)

MalkinIsMyHomeboy
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Postby MalkinIsMyHomeboy » Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:28 am

So Frank Schwab apparently covers betting for Yahoo Sports. And yet, he is also apparently the only person on Earth who does not know that if down by 14, and you just scored, and you know you have to be going for onside kick, then going for 2-point conversion is the optimal strategy...

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-bad-beat-e ... 26365.html
Honest question, why?
There are many more thorough explanations of the problem if you google it, but, basically, the gist is:

If you convert the first 2-point attempt, you WILL WIN THE GAME.

well, you gotta recover the onsides kick first :slug:

Tomas
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Postby Tomas » Fri Dec 04, 2020 11:36 am

More thorough explanation of "you have to go for 2 before onside kick":

"NFL Coaches Are Getting Away With Crimes Against Middle-School Math": https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nf ... hool-math/

as well as "you should go for 2 when the there are 10 minutes left in the game:

"When To Go For 2, For Real": https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wh ... -for-real/

shafnutz05
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Postby shafnutz05 » Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:03 pm

TIL that not only is Chad Henne still in the NFL, he is Mahomes' backup.

tifosi77
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Postby tifosi77 » Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:07 pm

I would rather they ditched the PAT altogether and replaced it with something like a conversion try from the 2 that would give you extra 1 point, and the option of a conversion try from the 5 or 8 or something that would give you 2. Maybe even tinker with the manpower on the field for the regular try - like make it a 7-on-7 play with max 2 eligible receivers or something.

It feels like the only time people even give a rip about kicks is when someone lines up for like a 59-yarder.

CBear3
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Postby CBear3 » Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:12 pm

I would rather they ditched the PAT altogether and replaced it with something like a conversion try from the 2 that would give you extra 1 point, and the option of a conversion try from the 5 or 8 or something that would give you 2. Maybe even tinker with the manpower on the field for the regular try - like make it a 7-on-7 play with max 2 eligible receivers or something.

It feels like the only time people even give a rip about kicks is when someone lines up for like a 59-yarder.
Wait until you have a kicker that can nail 59 yarders but is only making 85% of his PATs. That'll make you pay attention.

dodint
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Postby dodint » Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:14 pm

I would rather they ditched the PAT altogether and replaced it with something like a conversion try from the 2 that would give you extra 1 point, and the option of a conversion try from the 5 or 8 or something that would give you 2. Maybe even tinker with the manpower on the field for the regular try - like make it a 7-on-7 play with max 2 eligible receivers or something.

It feels like the only time people even give a rip about kicks is when someone lines up for like a 59-yarder.
XFL 3-pt Try from the 10 yard line. Do it!

nocera
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Postby nocera » Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:29 pm

I thought we all collectively decided that Nate Silver is a hack and fivethrityeight should never be referenced again?

shafnutz05
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Postby shafnutz05 » Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:24 pm

Shocking.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/304 ... rge-nevada
Free-agent linebacker Vontaze Burfict was arrested early Saturday in Nevada on a misdemeanor battery charge, according to Clark County court records.

According to Clark County Detention Center records, Burfict was being held on $1,000 bond. A hearing in the case was set for Monday.

blackjack68
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Postby blackjack68 » Sun Dec 06, 2020 1:34 pm

Browns up 10-0 in 1st quarter.

Will it hold?

blackjack68
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Postby blackjack68 » Sun Dec 06, 2020 1:34 pm

And Henry just fumbled.

willeyeam
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Postby willeyeam » Sun Dec 06, 2020 1:41 pm

"the steelers haven't played anybody" but they did beat up these 8-3 teams playing each other pretty good imo

RonnieFranchise
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Postby RonnieFranchise » Sun Dec 06, 2020 1:44 pm

Implement the CFL rouge.

blackjack68
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Postby blackjack68 » Sun Dec 06, 2020 2:11 pm

31-7 with five to go in the half.

Jesus.

shafnutz05
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Postby shafnutz05 » Sun Dec 06, 2020 2:12 pm

31-7 with five to go in the half.

Jesus.
Man, was not expecting this.

blackjack68
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Postby blackjack68 » Sun Dec 06, 2020 2:12 pm

No way.

Gaucho
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Postby Gaucho » Sun Dec 06, 2020 2:28 pm

The Titans suck ass.

dodint
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Postby dodint » Sun Dec 06, 2020 2:37 pm

Yes.

dodint
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Postby dodint » Sun Dec 06, 2020 2:57 pm

I called out the Titans as frauds earlier. Wanted to take this opportunity to recognize Derrick Henry specifically.

mikey
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Postby mikey » Sun Dec 06, 2020 2:59 pm

Semi-disagree, maybe a shade higher of disagreement than that even...

They can't win against a powerhouse because of QB deficiency, but it's a good team for me...

Kaiser
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Postby Kaiser » Sun Dec 06, 2020 3:01 pm

I'd say the Titans suffer from being painfully one-dimensional and don't have the coaching to get around it.

meow
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Postby meow » Sun Dec 06, 2020 3:02 pm

Alvin Kamara is one of the more entertaining backs in the league

D Henry is terrifying.

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