Dodint's Thread of Pirates 23-24 Offseason Optimism

[MrKennethTKangaroo]

That is an appropriate level of optimism for a post made on march 20 and less than 2 weeks from opening day

[Troy Loney]

That is an appropriate level of optimism for a post made on march 20 and less than 2 weeks from opening day

I have confidence that the offense will be stable this year. Not a lot of guys just rotating around and what not. The contingency plans are pretty clear and I think good (Rowdy and Suwinski liable to lose at bats to Joe and Olivares if they're making too many unproductive ABs, Delay and Grandal to take more C days if Davis can't field the position, Triolo to take over for any IF injury, McKinney the first OF up from Indy for an injury, etc).

I am curious to track the offensive production against preseason predictions.

But the pitching is in such a state that it might cloud those improvements on offense. And even just like the base ZIPs projections where a player produces some positive WAR just from playing could be too high. There are a lot of negative WAR candidates in line for early season starts. The rotation is designed to be a carousel this year, and it's clear that this is a bridge year till we have Skenes/Keller heading.

[Troy Loney]

The marco experiment looks likely to fail

[LeopardLetang]

At best it's Keller Perez and crap to start the season. Maybe Jones is necessary now

[Ad@m]

Gonzales - 3.2IP, 10H, 9ER


https://www.espn.com/mlb/boxscore/_/gameId/401576546

[LeopardLetang]

And those numbers despite being relieved in an inning or two and coming back to start the next inning

[MrKennethTKangaroo]

I have confidence that the offense will be stable this year. Not a lot of guys just rotating around and what not. The contingency plans are pretty clear and I think good (Rowdy and Suwinski liable to lose at bats to Joe and Olivares if they're making too many unproductive ABs, Delay and Grandal to take more C days if Davis can't field the position, Triolo to take over for any IF injury, McKinney the first OF up from Indy for an injury, etc).

I am curious to track the offensive production against preseason predictions.

But the pitching is in such a state that it might cloud those improvements on offense. And even just like the base ZIPs projections where a player produces some positive WAR just from playing could be too high. There are a lot of negative WAR candidates in line for early season starts. The rotation is designed to be a carousel this year, and it's clear that this is a bridge year till we have Skenes/Keller heading.

At the very least we will have some answers in the lineup. If Davis doesn’t hit this year, I think the team should just remove him from its long terms plans. If he can’t hit he has no spot.

Will be nice to finally figure out if Cruz is a flawed major league freak side show or actual bona fide middle of the line up guy

Will be nice to see if Hayes hits and exceeds the value of his contract or just ends up being a nice player

If suwinski doesn’t cut out some of the awfulness I think they move one. He doesn’t have to hit 30 bombs but he can’t be functionally useless a substantial number of games each year. Unless those valleys don’t get less shallow, the peaks aren’t with it

Hopefully one guy sticks out and asserts himself as “the guy” at 2b


In all, the lineup is interesting enough to justify dealing with the crap pitching.

[Troy Loney]

At the very least we will have some answers in the lineup. If Davis doesn’t hit this year, I think the team should just remove him from its long terms plans. If he can’t hit he has no spot.

Will be nice to finally figure out if Cruz is a flawed major league freak side show or actual bona fide middle of the line up guy

Will be nice to see if Hayes hits and exceeds the value of his contract or just ends up being a nice player

If suwinski doesn’t cut out some of the awfulness I think they move one. He doesn’t have to hit 30 bombs but he can’t be functionally useless a substantial number of games each year. Unless those valleys don’t get less shallow, the peaks aren’t with it

Hopefully one guy sticks out and asserts himself as “the guy” at 2b


In all, the lineup is interesting enough to justify dealing with the crap pitching.

I don't disagree on Davis, unless he's taken a big step forward at C. If the defense is the defense is somehow above average. I think the floor on the bat is good enough for any role at C. Despite it being an objectively bad year, he still had a .650 OPS, so I would argue that's the absolute bottom.

I think Cruz has some similar tendencies to Davis (needs to catch), in that he needs to play SS and bat leadoff. I think that allows for a heightened level of engagement with the game. If he's in the OF or DH batting down in the order, he's just not going to have the same level of concentration. So, just a slight note on your comment about being a middle of the order bat. I think he's your atypical leadoff guy solely to accommodate his comfort.

Hayes' contract is a bargain no matter what, he's getting paid like a 1+ WAR guy, his defense guarantees him that every year.

I think they just need to figure out if Suwinski is a platoon guy or not. Maybe just erase the need to hit left handers and make him focus on being a masher and not trying to figure out how to make contact against the lefties.

[Rocco]

I know I will regret it but I'm on the hype train. Just need to muddle along until Ben decides to put the five best starters in the rotation. If they do that in early May they can make the playoffs.

[Troy Loney]

I know I will regret it but I'm on the hype train. Just need to muddle along until Ben decides to put the five best starters in the rotation. If they do that in early May they can make the playoffs.

I do think it's worthy to note that it's a long season. Basically every team is throwing darts at their rotation pieces and no one has 5 guys that run through the whole season.

They basically just have Keller and Perez right now. Anderson, Falter, German are all likely to get starts within the first couple months of the season, and any capable start they provide is of huge value.

They have quietly loaded their farm system with arms though and this year will be the first time we actually get to see that. But with Priester, Contreras, and Ortiz all sort of flatlining as AAAA guys, the 2024 outlook is not good.

[MrKennethTKangaroo]

This is stating the obvious but if this team is gonna return to glory, jones solometo bubba etc need to pan out better than Mitch Oviedo Ortiz and ro

[Troy Loney]

This is stating the obvious but if this team is gonna return to glory, jones solometo bubba etc need to pan out better than Mitch Oviedo Ortiz and ro

collectively, this post Musgrove / Taillon / Williams era hit rate is standing at 20% with potential to move?

Keller - Hit
Oviedo - Hit (potential drop)
Ortiz, Priester, Roansy, Brubaker - currently flop - varying degrees of potential to succeed
Bolton, Bido, Crow, Kranick, Yajure - confirmed flops.

So let's say that 20% is the worst possible outcome, because 10% - 20% hit rate with the above listed group is actually kind of remarkable. The candidate group that I see is:

Skenes, Jones, Chandler, Solometo, Ashcraft, Wolf, Harrington, Kennedy, Shim, Mueth, Barco, and that Ugandan dude.

So I see the group as strong and the pipeline should last through 2028/29.

[Troy Loney]

That is an appropriate level of optimism for a post made on march 20 and less than 2 weeks from opening day

Circling back on this. They released their 3rd base ranking for '24. Hayes/Pirates came out as basically the top of the middle tier, leading the pack of teams after a decent sized drop-off from the top group.

Hard to really take issue with that, but again, their projection of Hayes is very low. They have him hovering around the .700 OPS. He finished last year at over .760. I get that this ZIPs crap is meant to level out the performance and project out. But they are clearly not buying his late season breakout (which looks to be carrying over right now).

[LeopardLetang]

I'm not buying a great season or even over .500 but I'm buying lots of individual performances on offense. I know they can't all work out but it's hard not to be optimistic. Cruz Hayes Suwinski and Davis I'm buying. To fight for the playoffs I think they need 3 things to pan out other than what's taken for granted (like a decent bullpen or a solid season from Reynolds and Keller).

#1 is competent starting pitching (least likely)
#2 is Davis holding the catching position and being a positive offensively (medium likely)
#3 is Cruz becoming a star (most likely)

i guess #4 is luck with injuries

[King Colby]

I think they'll be right around 80 wins

[LeopardLetang]

Yeah I've been kicking around 78. It will be a fun team to watch I think.

[faftorial]

I'm in the first, Falter has given up two homers already.

[Beveridge]

68 wins - no optimism, only realism

[King Colby]

Official predictions not due yet.

Falter is a disappointment

[MrKennethTKangaroo]

The over under is a 75.5 right now. Seems accurate

[faftorial]

Official predictions not due yet.

Falter is a disappointment

Too much faltering.

[DigitalGypsy66]

Roansy officially to the bullpen and is out of options. They don't want to lose another pitcher on waivers that could be fixed, as that would embarrass the front office.

To no one's surprise these days, Dauri Moreta had TJ surgery. See ya in June 2025, bub.

Mlodzinski has forearm soreness, but is throwing. Might as well get a two for one TJ surgery done for him while we're at it.

[MrKennethTKangaroo]

I would be decently bummed if mlodzinski was out for an extended period

[genoscoif]

I think at this point I'm more excited than optimistic for the season, but that's more than I can say for the last decade or so. Cruz might already be one of those 'don't miss an at bat' type of guys, especially if he hits a hot streak. His power is seemingly effortless. Their lineup on most days will give them a chance to score some runs, and at least has a chance to be pretty exciting to watch. But I still think they are more of a 'what if' offense than solidified. Like, what if Rowdy hits 35 again, what if Hayes has figured it out, what if Davis hits to his potential, even what if Cruz is De La Cruz but with more power.

Their bullpen looks solid, for now.

Their starting pitching looks...not solid. But even there the potential for a Skenes callup during the season adds some interest and excitement. I haven't seen a lot of him, but Jared Jones is interesting. But if the offense has 'what ifs', the starting rotation has 'let us pray'.

All in all, they'll be done in by their SP unless Keller is first half Keller all season and Skenes ends up being a bona fide 1 that provides a boost for the second half. Also, virtually any injury to Keller, Cruz, Reynolds, or Hayes just tanks them. Endy and Oviedo going down really sucked.

But I can't not be excited. Might actually pick up a hat. lol. I do like the looks of this one...

[MrKennethTKangaroo]

No point in wearing a pirate hat unless it is a 5950