Pirates Offseason Thread 2022-23

King Colby
Posts: 17853
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 6:35 pm

Pirates Offseason Thread 2022-23

Postby King Colby » Mon Nov 28, 2022 2:58 pm

The pitching is a whole lot of hoping but I think we have 2 pretty solid starters between Keller and roansy. Quintana would be a perfect add

King Colby
Posts: 17853
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 6:35 pm

Pirates Offseason Thread 2022-23

Postby King Colby » Mon Nov 28, 2022 3:01 pm

Pitching is still trash
Shhh, this is a .500 team
I'd put this team between 72-80 wins. I mean we're talking about a 10-15 game improvement over one of the worst baseball teams ever fielded, I dont think that's overly optimistic nor outrageous

robbiestoupe
Posts: 11556
Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2015 3:27 pm

Pirates Offseason Thread 2022-23

Postby robbiestoupe » Mon Nov 28, 2022 4:44 pm

So what? Unless they’re willing to spend some of the $100M+ they receive in TV revenue, they’re going to continually fall short. Looking at the minor leagues, they’ll never have enough SP to be interesting.

faftorial
Posts: 14819
Joined: Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:35 pm
Location: Lengeschder

Pirates Offseason Thread 2022-23

Postby faftorial » Mon Nov 28, 2022 4:50 pm

So what? Unless they’re willing to spend some of the $100M+ they receive in TV revenue, they’re going to continually fall short. Looking at the minor leagues, they’ll never have enough SP to be interesting.
I would say the goal is get to .500 and have more of the kids develop. It sounds like you won't be interested until they do the above and that's not happening this year.

King Colby
Posts: 17853
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 6:35 pm

Pirates Offseason Thread 2022-23

Postby King Colby » Mon Nov 28, 2022 4:51 pm

So nothing. We're talking about the pirates in the pirate thread...

There is a lot of ground between 100 losses and a world series, much of which is of particular interest to people who like watching competitive baseball

faftorial
Posts: 14819
Joined: Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:35 pm
Location: Lengeschder

Pirates Offseason Thread 2022-23

Postby faftorial » Mon Nov 28, 2022 4:52 pm

So nothing. We're talking about the pirates in the pirate thread...

There is a lot of ground between 100 losses and a world series, much of which is of particular interest to people who like watching competitive baseball
:thumb:

Morkle
Posts: 23026
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:09 pm
Location: Pittsburgh

Pirates Offseason Thread 2022-23

Postby Morkle » Tue Nov 29, 2022 8:19 am

I say they get no more than 70 wins next season as it stands, right now. I think if they add actual players and not just balsa wood stand-ins, there's no real excuse to not produce more than 70.

robbiestoupe
Posts: 11556
Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2015 3:27 pm

Pirates Offseason Thread 2022-23

Postby robbiestoupe » Tue Nov 29, 2022 8:58 am

Sorry if I come across as a completely confrontational with any optimism, but the Pirates have lost all respect IMO. All these if and buts regarding adding anything significant in free agency, which is absolutely necessary, is all smoke and mirrors. The Pirates have no interest in competing, and have no incentive to do so.

The fact that the team receives $100M in TV revenue for doing jack ****, on top of any other revenue sources...that alone should be their salary floor. You could most likely use the TV revenue alone to field a team, and use all other revenues to pay for all other expenditures and still come out on top every year. Yet here we sit, debating whether this team will be .500 with a little bit of luck, when in an otherwise competitive world, we'd be screaming to add to the paltry $40M payroll to make this team actually competitive.

The thing that's sad about all this is people from Cherington on down are probably doing all they can to win. But from Williams up, it's BS on top of BS in order to continue filling the pockets of the owner(s).

skullman80
Posts: 19205
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 5:02 pm
Location: Monroeville, PA

Pirates Offseason Thread 2022-23

Postby skullman80 » Tue Nov 29, 2022 9:03 am

Sorry if I come across as a completely confrontational with any optimism, but the Pirates have lost all respect IMO. All these if and buts regarding adding anything significant in free agency, which is absolutely necessary, is all smoke and mirrors. The Pirates have no interest in competing, and have no incentive to do so.

The fact that the team receives $100M in TV revenue for doing jack ****, on top of any other revenue sources...that alone should be their salary floor. You could most likely use the TV revenue alone to field a team, and use all other revenues to pay for all other expenditures and still come out on top every year. Yet here we sit, debating whether this team will be .500 with a little bit of luck, when in an otherwise competitive world, we'd be screaming to add to the paltry $40M payroll to make this team actually competitive.

The thing that's sad about all this is people from Cherington on down are probably doing all they can to win. But from Williams up, it's BS on top of BS in order to continue filling the pockets of the owner(s).
This is how I feel as well. I try not to bring my negativity into this thread, but it's difficult sometimes.

DigitalGypsy66
Posts: 19680
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 7:33 pm
Location: Iodine State

Pirates Offseason Thread 2022-23

Postby DigitalGypsy66 » Tue Nov 29, 2022 9:06 am

An $85 million payroll would yield decent results, if they fill holes in their lineup. Don't need to spend all of that TV revenue.

And how long will that TV revenue be around? Who the hell is watching baseball?

robbiestoupe
Posts: 11556
Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2015 3:27 pm

Pirates Offseason Thread 2022-23

Postby robbiestoupe » Tue Nov 29, 2022 9:13 am

I believe the below national TV deal goes through 2028. Each team has their own local TV revenue, though not all those are publicly known. The Pirates' deal is not known for sure, but inside sources believe it is around $45M per year. Not sure about the length of the local deal, but I'm sure it's at least 10 years. So you have $100M guaranteed for the next 8 years. Could easily sign a FA or two with that type of guaranteed income.


MrKennethTKangaroo
Posts: 12408
Joined: Sat Mar 28, 2015 3:50 pm

Pirates Offseason Thread 2022-23

Postby MrKennethTKangaroo » Tue Nov 29, 2022 9:14 am

Robert is not wrong, but I like the game so I'll waste my time debating if this team has enough talent to improve from 62 wins to 80ish wins based on incremental improvements from the suwinskis and Castro's of the world

DigitalGypsy66
Posts: 19680
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 7:33 pm
Location: Iodine State

Pirates Offseason Thread 2022-23

Postby DigitalGypsy66 » Tue Nov 29, 2022 9:15 am

$45 million LOCALLY? That's insane. I guess the long season/162 games makes for a lot of production costs, but yikes.

So it's not like this 100 million payout is going to stop this or next season. Nutting and Co have some runway to spend...

robbiestoupe
Posts: 11556
Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2015 3:27 pm

Pirates Offseason Thread 2022-23

Postby robbiestoupe » Tue Nov 29, 2022 9:16 am

If you want a good article to understand the unfairness of MLB revenues, take a look at this. The Dodgers are already getting $200M more per year than the Pirates due to their local TV deal. Revenue sharing helps slightly balance this out (didn't even mention RS above), but it's nowhere near enough.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-update ... mlb-teams/

robbiestoupe
Posts: 11556
Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2015 3:27 pm

Pirates Offseason Thread 2022-23

Postby robbiestoupe » Tue Nov 29, 2022 9:22 am

Robert is not wrong, but I like the game so I'll waste my time debating if this team has enough talent to improve from 62 wins to 80ish wins based on incremental improvements from the suwinskis and Castro's of the world
This was me back in the early 2000's. I can't do it anymore. I'd like to watch them win, but this whole cycle of hoping their farm system produces enough guys to make the team competitive is not worth it IMO. I guess I care enough to post in this thread and look at the box scores day in and day out. Not sure why, though.

MrKennethTKangaroo
Posts: 12408
Joined: Sat Mar 28, 2015 3:50 pm

Pirates Offseason Thread 2022-23

Postby MrKennethTKangaroo » Tue Nov 29, 2022 9:26 am

This is the way

Morkle
Posts: 23026
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:09 pm
Location: Pittsburgh

Pirates Offseason Thread 2022-23

Postby Morkle » Tue Nov 29, 2022 9:28 am

Robert is not wrong, but I like the game so I'll waste my time debating if this team has enough talent to improve from 62 wins to 80ish wins based on incremental improvements from the suwinskis and Castro's of the world
This was me back in the early 2000's. I can't do it anymore. I'd like to watch them win, but this whole cycle of hoping their farm system produces enough guys to make the team competitive is not worth it IMO. I guess I care enough to post in this thread and look at the box scores day in and day out. Not sure why, though.
Pretty much how I do it. I haven't sat down and watched even an inning of the game in years on TV. I'm fine following from a distance, and caring when they care to spend and win. No stress, outside of watching them mismanage players and the team.

faftorial
Posts: 14819
Joined: Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:35 pm
Location: Lengeschder

Pirates Offseason Thread 2022-23

Postby faftorial » Tue Nov 29, 2022 10:01 am

is doesn't sound like this thread is for you guys. As KC said this is the Pirates thread and we discuss the Pirates.

I guess I could start posting in the Wrestling thread here and talk about how much wrestling sucks but what would be the point in doing that.

willeyeam
Posts: 39564
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:49 pm
Location: hodgepodge of nothingness

Pirates Offseason Thread 2022-23

Postby willeyeam » Tue Nov 29, 2022 10:13 am

I get being pessimistic (I certainly am) but when people are laying out logical points on how they might possibly get to 80 wins (we aren't talking world series here), just spouting off on ownership and spending etc seems like a waste of time

skullman80
Posts: 19205
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 5:02 pm
Location: Monroeville, PA

Pirates Offseason Thread 2022-23

Postby skullman80 » Tue Nov 29, 2022 10:29 am

is doesn't sound like this thread is for you guys. As KC said this is the Pirates thread and we discuss the Pirates.

I guess I could start posting in the Wrestling thread here and talk about how much wrestling sucks but what would be the point in doing that.
I don't post in here all that often, and when I do I don't think it's all negative. I stay out exactly for the reason you stated above.

Troy Loney
Posts: 27518
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 3:03 pm

Pirates Offseason Thread 2022-23

Postby Troy Loney » Tue Nov 29, 2022 10:38 am

When no one was paying attention at the end of 2021, they made a bunch of stupid trades and waiver wire pickups that resulted in Park, Castillo, Chavez, Tsutsugo, Gamel, Crow, Wilson and Peters all in line for major roles in 2022, and they also decided Tucker needed one more shot.

So, they hacked off their feet heading into 2022, I am sure there's a thread with plenty of documentary evidence of how aggrieved we were with the 40-man and MLB they broke camp with. Those moves deliberately extended the bottoming out phase through 2022, and I think the only like speck of gold they found in that vacant mine is Suwinski (who was part of the Frazier return).

There is plenty of reason to be pessimistic, but I mean, there's being pessimistic and there's complaining about people (mostly KC and myself) that are discussing the changes and looking for evidence of progress.

There is a wide range of outcomes for this current team, as I don't think anyone is blind to the questions that surround this collection of players and who they are going to be relying on in 2023. But the ceiling is in the 80's for this group, their ceiling for potential success might not have been 70 in 2022.

King Colby
Posts: 17853
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 6:35 pm

Pirates Offseason Thread 2022-23

Postby King Colby » Tue Nov 29, 2022 2:52 pm

The thing that's sad about all this is people from Cherington on down are probably doing all they can to win. But from Williams up, it's BS on top of BS in order to continue filling the pockets of the owner(s).
Correct. The way I see it is I have two options.

Option 1 is to be pissed at ownership for not prioritizing winning and only ever look at the pirates through that lens.

Option 2 is to evaluate the incremental improvements the people who do prioritize winning are making and hope that they produce a more watchable product.

Eventually Option 2 collides with Option 1, like in the 2015-16 offseason.

But up until then, what good does it do me to take Option 1?

LeopardLetang
Posts: 2565
Joined: Sat Mar 28, 2015 1:27 pm

Pirates Offseason Thread 2022-23

Postby LeopardLetang » Wed Nov 30, 2022 5:10 pm

Santana signing gets some love. Says he's the unluckiest player in baseball due to his .215 babip considering his gb rate and hard hit%

I didn't look that carefully but he seems like a guy that will sustain unusually low babip due to his speed but yeah the shift should help.


Image
Look at that Savant page and tell me he’s not nasty.

Unlike many hitters whose bat speed trails off in their mid-to-late-thirties, Santana has stayed in MLB’s upper echelon, still capable of hitting the ball as hard as he did at the peak of his powers during Cleveland’s last World Series run. He still possesses 20-homer pop, although PNC Park may suppress his home run total this season.

So, the guy walks a ton, and at around the same clip he strikes out, still gets quality contact, and, a last thing that’s gone unmentioned up to now, he’s still a plus defender at first. What’s the catch?
https://msabr.com/2022/11/30/the-curiou ... s-santana/
Last edited by LeopardLetang on Wed Nov 30, 2022 5:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.

willeyeam
Posts: 39564
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:49 pm
Location: hodgepodge of nothingness

Pirates Offseason Thread 2022-23

Postby willeyeam » Wed Nov 30, 2022 5:13 pm

The catch is that he's gonna be 37. It's gonna be an okay platoon

Troy Loney
Posts: 27518
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 3:03 pm

Pirates Offseason Thread 2022-23

Postby Troy Loney » Thu Dec 01, 2022 8:54 am

ZIPS prediction on fangraphs is coming out today. The writer out out the diamond graphic showing WAR by position/player last night.

Hayes/Reynolds/Cruz all projected to be good (3+ WAR)
1B, DH and C all in line for average production (but that is projecting Rodriguez as the starter, so not sure that means anything).
Suwinski, Castro, Bae and Andujar are all projected flame outs

Keller and Brubaker average starters (1-2 WAR) and Roansy in line to be pretty good.
Oviedo and Ortiz not projected to hack it. Will be curious to see how many starts/innings they think those guys are getting for their sub 1 WAR projections

Signing 1-2 major league starters will go a long way for easy marginal improvements for this 2023 team.
Suwinski and Bae will have very short leashes should they break camp with the team. So if they have a slow April and trend towards those predictions, they'll be sent down. I think Castro and Andujar will be on longer ones, So I think if either of those two completely flame out, that's going to be bad.

Bullpen might be okay according to ZIPs

Edit, full write up posted
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-zips-p ... h-pirates/

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: MrKennethTKangaroo and 104 guests