MLB

[Troy Loney]

Accidental drug overdose?

[DigitalGypsy66]

Interesting look at the home run surge:

Just a quarter-century ago, Major League Baseball was ravaged by a strike that canceled the 1994 World Series and left the future of the national pastime in doubt. One thing brought the game back from the abyss: Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa’s pursuit of a record 62 home runs, a race that captivated fans in a way that no longer seemed possible. Now, barely 20 years later, baseball faces another crisis that threatens its place in the fabric of American culture.

The home run, the thrilling feat that once saved the sport, might now be killing it. The number of home runs being hit this season crosses into the territory of the absurd, with players at the All-Star break on pace to hit more than 6,600, a record. It would be more than 500 homers above the previous mark established in 2017 and nearly 1,000 more than were hit in 2000, the height of the steroid era. Four teams—the Minnesota Twins, Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees and Milwaukee Brewers—are in line to finish with more than 267 homers, the single-season high the Yankees set last year.

By the end of 2019, four of the five seasons with the most home runs ever hit will have come in the past four years. Fans are pushing back. Attendance is falling, as games increase in length while decreasing in action and displays of athleticism that don’t involve balls soaring over fences. “If home runs were the salvation of the game in 1998, they may be the perdition of the game now,” said John Thorn, MLB’s official historian. “It can be argued that a seven-course meal of all desserts can make you tired.”

The home-run epidemic has created a version of baseball that is almost unrecognizable compared with any other point in time, one in which power has essentially replaced every other element of the game. Around 35% of all plate appearances this year have ended with either a home run, a walk or a strikeout, the latter of which is happening at a record pace for the 12th straight season. Batting averages have plummeted, with home runs representing 16% of all hits across the league, up from over 8% in 1989.

A whopping 45% of all runs scored across the league now come as the result of a homer—up from 40% last year and 28% 30 years ago. “Mae West said too much of a good thing is wonderful,” Thorn said. “She wasn’t referring to baseball.”

There are several reasons this is happening, including increased velocity from pitchers, an increased emphasis on hitting fly balls and data analytics and technology prompting batters to change their swings.

But all of those are secondary to the biggest cause: the baseball itself. An MLB-commissioned scientific study last year that proved that the current ball has less drag, and is therefore more aerodynamic, than its predecessor, though the research failed to understand why exactly. Commissioner Rob Manfred said recently that this year’s batch of balls is even less air resistant than before. Rawlings, the MLB-owned company that manufactures the baseballs, insists that its processes and materials haven’t changed at its factory in Costa Rica where balls are stitched by hand.

One possibility, Manfred said, is that manufacturing improvements have led to the rubber-coated cork inside the ball—called the “pill”—being closer to the center, which he says could reduce drag. A study last year revealed that the baseball currently used by MLB are more aerodynamic than its predecessors, which may have contributed to the home-run surge.

Baseball is wrestling with whether it should take more aggressive steps to quell the power surge. Manfred said the league’s internal research shows a split between fans who like the turbocharged style of play and those who yearn for the return of triples, hit-and-runs and stolen bases. “It’s a little harder to come up with the changes that address both of those things,” Manfred said. “The overwhelming sentiment among ownership is that we want to put a game on the field that is responsive to what our fans want to see.” What they are seeing now is a game in which any player can hit a home run at any time.

The distribution of power is entirely different than during the drug-assisted homer spike in the late ’90s and early 2000s.

The steroid era was defined by a few burly sluggers putting up individual homer numbers that had never been seen before. In 1998, for instance, 13 different players hit at least 40 homers. Last year, only three players reached that mark. Instead, 230 players hit at least 10, compared with 178 in ’98. The question is whether this will eventually stop, or if this has simply become the new normal. After all, it was just in 2014 where run scoring fell so low that baseball grappled with whether to make changes to inflate offense, rather than to suppress it.

But right now, one thing is certain: There are a ridiculous number of home runs being hit in baseball. Maybe even too many. “When you are in the middle of a trend, it seems like there’s no way that this trend could never end,” Tampa Bay Rays Senior Vice President Chaim Bloom said. “And yet, we find time and time again that people adjust and the game adjusts. There’s no doubt there are some adjustments around the corner that will change things in some way.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/baseball-h ... 1562603173

So MLB is on pace to hit more than 1000 more homers this season than in the steroid peak season of 2000; and 500 more than the record season of 2017. Also, nearly 45% of all runs scored come via home run.

[willeyeam]

The balls may be different, but when pitchers strategies more than ever is to throw gas, and philosophies trend more toward extra bases or bust, combined with shifts.. well this is what happens

[shafnutz05]

“It’s a f—-ing joke. Major League Baseball’s turning this game into a joke. They own Rawlings, and you’ve got Manfred up here saying it might be the way they center the pill. They own the f—-ing company. If any other $40 billion company bought out a $400 million company and the product changed dramatically, it’s not a guess as to what happened. We all know what happened. Manfred the first time he came in, what’d he say? He said we want more offense. All of a sudden he comes in, the balls are juiced? It’s not coincidence. We’re not idiots.”

Asked if he believed the balls were intentionally juiced by the league, Verlander said: “Yes. 100 percent. They’ve been using juiced balls in the Home Run Derby forever. They know how to do it. It’s not coincidence. I find it really hard to believe that Major League Baseball owns Rawlings and just coincidentally the balls become juiced.”

I get that runs are exciting, but I also miss the days of the aces.

[Dickie Dunn]

**** Verlander and gimme all the dongs.

[robbiestoupe]

Source of the post gimme all the dongs

[willeyeam]

Well done

[Spangler]

Haven’t watch the home run derby in a long time but wanted to see Josh Bell. Wtf?! He hit 18 and lost in the first round. Everyone was hitting 15+ HRs. They kept unintentionally talking about everything that’s wrong with modern day MLB hitting/pitching dynamics.

[LITT]

At least he didn’t Jason Bay it

[NAN]

http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/mlb ... li=BBnb7Kz

Players are willing to strike unless economics change. They are pissed that teams control you in your younger years for cheap, won't promote you to delay free agency, and now aren't paying you when you enter free agency outside of a handful of players.

They say there needs to be more competitive balance so more teams will push for these free agents and more teams will spend to be competitive.

They are jealous of the other leagues that have big deals during free agency.

Well, IMO, that's because the other leagues have a floor and a cap. But baseball doesn't want that.

You can't have it both ways. For as bad as Pirates management is, and they are cheap, when you are going up against the Yankees, Red Sox, etc that have much larger funds than you, what is the point? They are going to get their players. You are just going to drive up the mid tier.

I guess we'll see what happens. But I hope at the end of the day there will be a cap system, but doubt it.

[willeyeam]

I think baseball needs a floor and a cap. And I also think baseball has plenty of big deals though.. the biggest deals!

[MrKennethTKangaroo]

it is not the league's fault that front offices game to the conclusion that paying some 30 year old dude $45 million over three years produces a crappier return than paying a 25 year old $1.8 million over three years.

[Dickie Dunn]

Regardless of the need for a salary or floor, if I was a player I would be pretty pissed that

Two dozen All-Stars were making the minimum salary of $555,000

[Orlando Penguin]

I think it's a collective case of GMs being smarter in their spending. Look at the Twins -- they had Joe Mauer's $23 million albatross around their neck for years and they couldn't do anything about it. At the time the contract was signed, Mauer deserved a contract like that. Problem was, they locked him in for such a long term that by the last 3 years of it, he was a shell of what earned him that number in the first place. The year after that $23 million comes off the board, they spend $28 million on 3 players (Cruz, Cron, Schoop) that have produced a ton more than what Mauer was giving them for that $23 million. Another example -- the Angels and the Pujols contract. I'm sure they can't wait to get that out from under them and as a result of a negative return on a giant investment, a star talent like Mike Trout is going to continue to flail away on a mediocre team. This is a giant reason why you don't see big numbers for guys like Kimbrel and Keuchel this past offseason. The players (really, their agents) want the longterm sweetheart deal and current GMs have learned from other teams' mistakes and aren't handing them out. Likely to see only the generational talents like Harper and Trout get the mega deals going forward and even that Harper contract could have been halved and it would make more sense.

[willeyeam]

Whoa Bubba Starling called up. Forgot he was even alive. He was one of the top prospects drafted when I started up my dynasty league in 2012. Good for him

[shafnutz05]

There is a staggering amount of mediocrity in the NL. right now. The Phillies, at 47-43, have the third best record in the league. You basically have one dominant team (the Dodgers), a really good team (the Braves), and dogsht.

[DigitalGypsy66]

Chris Stewart calls it a career: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/chris-stewa ... he-spikes/

[shafnutz05]

Among other things that are lame about modern baseball, the "combined no-hitter" is high among them for me. I miss the days of the 120 pitch no hitter...for me, that's what makes those games so great. The individual achievement.

Also not a fan of how the new prototype MLB player is a .250 hitter that strikes out a lot but can also mash taters, with the exception of the Trouts of the world. Even .300 leadoff hitters are increasingly rare.

[DigitalGypsy66]

I haven’t checked lately, but the league leader in complete games was like 2. Getting almost as rare as a triple play.

[Dickie Dunn]

Among other things that are lame about modern baseball, the "combined no-hitter" is high among them for me. I miss the days of the 120 pitch no hitter...for me, that's what makes those games so great. The individual achievement.

Also not a fan of how the new prototype MLB player is a .250 hitter that strikes out a lot but can also mash taters, with the exception of the Trouts of the world. Even .300 leadoff hitters are increasingly rare.

Point 1: Eh. Wiki says there's been 14 combined no-hitters in baseball history, with the first being in 1917 after Babe Ruth got tossed arguing balls and strikes after walking the first batter of the game. There have been 54 no-hitters this century and 6 have been combined no-hitters (five of which have come this decade), so the combined no-hitter is still more rare than the individual effort. While some are due to high pitch counts, most seem to have extenuating circumstances like the starting pitcher getting injured, or the Angels using an opener because of the death of Tyler Skaggs.

Point 2: I agree. I miss the Tony Gwynn's of the baseball world.

I haven’t checked lately, but the league leader in complete games was like 2. Getting almost as rare as a triple play.

Still two. Six pitchers are at two and only 28 pitchers have thrown a complete game this year, which is **** insane.

[Ad@m]

I miss the leadoff hitters ( Henderson, Coleman, Raines) that would swipe bases, like it was nothing.

[Orlando Penguin]

I haven’t checked lately, but the league leader in complete games was like 2. Getting almost as rare as a triple play.

Bieber made it CG #3 today. The Indians can feel free to go on a losing streak anytime now, preferably Thursday thru Sunday this week.

[Dickie Dunn]

I miss the leadoff hitters ( Henderson, Coleman, Raines) that would swipe bases, like it was nothing.

I miss this bigly. I loved me some Tony Womack when I was a kid.

[NailedPenguin]

[CBear3]

Why?