Fifth Avenue Forum

McShay is probably not wrong that OSU is a better team than Cincinnati. If they make it with 2 losses over Cincinnati with none though, they just need to move the G5 down to the FCS because barring somebody going with a balls out Gonzaga basketball-like OOC and running the table, they will never have a shot.

https://www.si.com/extra-mustard/2021/1 ... -XJVpfkPZE

Lincoln Riley leaving for USC is hilarious.

ND lowest rated of the 1 loss teams, will they finally pay for not being in a conference? They played nobody but Cincinnati and a 4 loss Wisconsin team that is somehow still ranked despite losses to PSU and Minnesota.

I think they're out unless something crazy happens. OK State is poised to jump them as well

Well, they need 2 out of 4:
Loss by Alabama.
By Cincinnati
By Michigan
By OK State
I'd say the probability of that happening could be at least 20%...

ND lowest rated of the 1 loss teams, will they finally pay for not being in a conference? They played nobody but Cincinnati and a 4 loss Wisconsin team that is somehow still ranked despite losses to PSU and Minnesota.

I think they're out unless something crazy happens. OK State is poised to jump them as well

Well, they need 2 out of 4:
Loss by Alabama.
By Cincinnati
By Michigan
By OK State
I'd say the probability of that happening could be at least 20%...

I'd say a situation where both Alabama loses to Georgia and Okie State loses to Baylor is reasonably likely.

Houston beats Cincy on Saturday. Why? Just a hunch. The CFP has always gotten things to work out the way everyone wants it with little controversy. In the last few weeks, we’ve had Oklahoma bounced twice after people wondered why they were so low, Sparty get whipped after people lost their minds over why they were below Michigan, and Cincy has done what they’ve needed to do to nudge up. But now, the elitist gods will conspire to get Cincy that loss so the CFP can have the bluest blood possible.

What I’d really like to see:
Georgia annihilate Bama (very possible)
Iowa beat Michigan (f the Big Ten)
Ok State beat Baylor
Cincy beat Houston

Then we’d have Georgia, Cincy, Ok State, and ND who has played a more Charmin-like schedule than Cincy. Everyone will howl at ND’s inclusion except the TV people.

ND lowest rated of the 1 loss teams, will they finally pay for not being in a conference? They played nobody but Cincinnati and a 4 loss Wisconsin team that is somehow still ranked despite losses to PSU and Minnesota.

I think they're out unless something crazy happens. OK State is poised to jump them as well

Well, they need 2 out of 4:
Loss by Alabama.
By Cincinnati
By Michigan
By OK State
I'd say the probability of that happening could be at least 20%...

I'd say a situation where both Alabama loses to Georgia and Okie State loses to Baylor is reasonably likely.

I just checked moneyline odds, and right now
Alabama +210, so 100/(210+100) = 32.25% implied probability of victory
Cincinnati -400, so 400/(400+100) = 80% victory
Michigan -420 so 420/(420+100) = 80.77% victory
OK State -200 so 200/(200+100) = 66.66% victory

So, for example, conditional on Alabama losing (67.75% chance), the remaining loss will come with

1-0.80*0.8077*0.6666 = 57%

In other words, Notre Dame is most likely NOT harmed by sitting out. There is a really decent chance two teams above ND will lose next week.

I used to like you, Tomas.

Incidentally, Pitt right now at -145, so 145/(145+100) = 59.2% victory chance

I wouldn’t be surprised if they hire some choir boy refs for the Cinci game to give ND a chance at getting in

Kelly from ND to LSU. The carousel is spinning out of control.

Kelly from ND to LSU. The carousel is spinning out of control.

That is actually a shocking hire.

Fickell is gone

You hate to see it

Kelly in Baton Rouge seems like a bad cultural fit

Wow

It's not like you changed industries...how can you think this is the right way to go or won't kill your reputation...?

It’s how they all do it. College football coaches are psychotic narcissists.

More than a bit shocking. I hope fickel tells nd to pound salt

I’m expecting Urban to have another health crisis and Bobby Petrino his way out or Jacksonville.

I hate ND more than any sports entity but the Flyers and Cowboys, however I’d think for a cfb coach, winningest coach at ND at age 60 has to be a pretty good spot to ride out your career, especially for an Irish Catholic guy from Boston.

I suppose the chance to win an SEC championship is a draw and professional challenge. The schedule is a beast compared to what ND plays these days. And no doubt they paid him. It’s just weird though.

I hate ND more than any sports entity but the Flyers and Cowboys, however I’d think for a cfb coach, winningest coach at ND at age 60 has to be a pretty good spot to ride out your career, especially for an Irish Catholic guy from Boston.

I suppose the chance to win an SEC championship is a draw and professional challenge. The schedule is a beast compared to what ND plays these days. And no doubt they paid him. It’s just weird though.

If LSU is indeed able to double his salary (as I read somewhere today), then - at least for me - moving is a totally understandable decision.

It’s how they all do it. College football coaches are psychotic narcissists.

Yep

Early money coming in on the Dawgs. -6.5.

Georgia is clearly the superior team and they match up very well with Bama this year, but there is a mental hurdle that will be tough to overcome imo.

I hate ND more than any sports entity but the Flyers and Cowboys, however I’d think for a cfb coach, winningest coach at ND at age 60 has to be a pretty good spot to ride out your career, especially for an Irish Catholic guy from Boston.

I suppose the chance to win an SEC championship is a draw and professional challenge. The schedule is a beast compared to what ND plays these days. And no doubt they paid him. It’s just weird though.

$100MM over 10 years from LSU.

Aside from the money, I know there was talk in previous years about Kelly wanting to be in a conference and I guess he got tired of fighting that battle. Without a conference there’s no realistic goal to work for. Natty or bust is not a realistic goal for the program anymore. 10 win seasons that result in playoff losses or a win in the Camping World Bowl don’t really mean ****. Fighting for and winning a conference championship is an achievable intermediate goal that gives a coach legitimacy and is possible even in seasons with less than 10 wins. Notre Dame’s coach doesn’t have that luxury.