Steelers at Cowboys- Week 9 GDT - Giddyup!
Steelers at Cowboys- Week 9 GDT - Giddyup!
Huh a ball happened to just find Minkahs body again
-
- Posts: 11093
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 5:08 pm
- Location: Location: Location
-
- Posts: 60994
- Joined: Sun Oct 04, 2015 2:00 pm
- Location: FUCΚ! Even in the future nothing works.
Steelers at Cowboys- Week 9 GDT - Giddyup!
This **** team, man.
-
- Posts: 19495
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 5:02 pm
- Location: Monroeville, PA
Steelers at Cowboys- Week 9 GDT - Giddyup!
Finding ways to win, but they got things to clean up.
-
- Posts: 11607
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 8:04 pm
- Location: Orlando, FL
Steelers at Cowboys- Week 9 GDT - Giddyup!
My eliminator lives to see another week. Unreal sequence of events.
Steelers at Cowboys- Week 9 GDT - Giddyup!
Ugly wins better than a pretty loss
-
- Posts: 14875
- Joined: Thu Mar 26, 2015 7:09 pm
- Location: Across the River from Filthydelphia.
Steelers at Cowboys- Week 9 GDT - Giddyup!
Yup, just pure luck.Huh a ball happened to just find Minkahs body again
-
- Posts: 9316
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2015 8:38 pm
- Location: [Redacted]
Steelers at Cowboys- Week 9 GDT - Giddyup!
I’m exhausted.
-
- Posts: 60994
- Joined: Sun Oct 04, 2015 2:00 pm
- Location: FUCΚ! Even in the future nothing works.
Steelers at Cowboys- Week 9 GDT - Giddyup!
Complain about the defense all you want, but they continue to make big plays and finish games.
Steelers at Cowboys- Week 9 GDT - Giddyup!
Good game from dodint's guy.
-
- Posts: 60994
- Joined: Sun Oct 04, 2015 2:00 pm
- Location: FUCΚ! Even in the future nothing works.
Steelers at Cowboys- Week 9 GDT - Giddyup!
Heyward is a god damn monster.
This may have already been posted, but whatever:
This may have already been posted, but whatever:
-
- Posts: 9316
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2015 8:38 pm
- Location: [Redacted]
Steelers at Cowboys- Week 9 GDT - Giddyup!
Magnetic Minkah. Love him.Huh a ball happened to just find Minkahs body again
Steelers at Cowboys- Week 9 GDT - Giddyup!
Juju had an excellent game
-
- Posts: 60994
- Joined: Sun Oct 04, 2015 2:00 pm
- Location: FUCΚ! Even in the future nothing works.
Steelers at Cowboys- Week 9 GDT - Giddyup!
Huge play for the score. He clearly got stronger in the offseason, because he’s bulldozing people out there.Juju had an excellent game
Steelers at Cowboys- Week 9 GDT - Giddyup!
So this is why going for the 4th down conversion was the correct call at the end:
Let
P= probability Steelers convert
Q = probability Cowboys score a TD after Steelers don't convert
R = probability after Cowboys score a TD after Steelers kick the FG instead of going for conversion
then:
Probability Steelers win after the conversion attempt:
P+ (1-P)*(1-Q)
Probability Steelers win after going for the FG (I am infllating the chances a little by assuming 100% FG success)
1-R (i.e. Cowboys don't score a TD) PLUS
R/2 (Cowboys score but don't convert 2-pt attempt) PLUS
R/4 (Game goes to OT, Steelers have 50/50 shot)
So, conversion attempt makes sense if
P+(1-P)*(1-Q) > (1-R) + R/2 + R/4
P+(1-P)*(1-Q) > 1-R/4
Let's simplify and assume Q=R (which is unfair to the conversion attempt, because Cowboys would likely have a better starting position after the FG score, so, in reality R>Q)
then
P + (1-P)*(1-Q) > 1-Q/4
and, if my math is correct, this simply leads to
P>3/4
So, as long as the probability of conversion the "4th and 1" was greater than 3/4, going for it was the correct call (and 3/4 is likely even overstated due to the simplification Q=R).
Let
P= probability Steelers convert
Q = probability Cowboys score a TD after Steelers don't convert
R = probability after Cowboys score a TD after Steelers kick the FG instead of going for conversion
then:
Probability Steelers win after the conversion attempt:
P+ (1-P)*(1-Q)
Probability Steelers win after going for the FG (I am infllating the chances a little by assuming 100% FG success)
1-R (i.e. Cowboys don't score a TD) PLUS
R/2 (Cowboys score but don't convert 2-pt attempt) PLUS
R/4 (Game goes to OT, Steelers have 50/50 shot)
So, conversion attempt makes sense if
P+(1-P)*(1-Q) > (1-R) + R/2 + R/4
P+(1-P)*(1-Q) > 1-R/4
Let's simplify and assume Q=R (which is unfair to the conversion attempt, because Cowboys would likely have a better starting position after the FG score, so, in reality R>Q)
then
P + (1-P)*(1-Q) > 1-Q/4
and, if my math is correct, this simply leads to
P>3/4
So, as long as the probability of conversion the "4th and 1" was greater than 3/4, going for it was the correct call (and 3/4 is likely even overstated due to the simplification Q=R).
-
- Posts: 19495
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 5:02 pm
- Location: Monroeville, PA
Steelers at Cowboys- Week 9 GDT - Giddyup!
Don't care what formula you use it was the wrong call and a stupid one.
Steelers at Cowboys- Week 9 GDT - Giddyup!
The call may have been correct, but as noted, the execution was horrific.
Steelers at Cowboys- Week 9 GDT - Giddyup!
Why do we have to bring math into this?
Steelers at Cowboys- Week 9 GDT - Giddyup!
So this is why going for the 4th down conversion was the correct call at the end:
Let
P= probability Steelers convert
Q = probability Cowboys score a TD after Steelers don't convert
R = probability after Cowboys score a TD after Steelers kick the FG instead of going for conversion
then:
Probability Steelers win after the conversion attempt:
P+ (1-P)*(1-Q)
Probability Steelers win after going for the FG (I am infllating the chances a little by assuming 100% FG success)
1-R (i.e. Cowboys don't score a TD) PLUS
R/2 (Cowboys score but don't convert 2-pt attempt) PLUS
R/4 (Game goes to OT, Steelers have 50/50 shot)
So, conversion attempt makes sense if
P+(1-P)*(1-Q) > (1-R) + R/2 + R/4
P+(1-P)*(1-Q) > 1-R/4
Let's simplify and assume Q=R (which is unfair to the conversion attempt, because Cowboys would likely have a better starting position after the FG score, so, in reality R>Q)
then
P + (1-P)*(1-Q) > 1-Q/4
and, if my math is correct, this simply leads to
P>3/4
So, as long as the probability of conversion the "4th and 1" was greater than 3/4, going for it was the correct call (and 3/4 is likely even overstated due to the simplification Q=R).
Steelers at Cowboys- Week 9 GDT - Giddyup!
Sometimes in life, you get simply bailed out by (1-P)*(1-Q)The call may have been correct, but as noted, the execution was horrific.
Steelers at Cowboys- Week 9 GDT - Giddyup!
Going for it was the right call.
The play call was faulty.
The play call was faulty.
Steelers at Cowboys- Week 9 GDT - Giddyup!
Clock stops either way so that 4th down play has got to go through Ben.
-
- Posts: 2594
- Joined: Sat Mar 28, 2015 1:27 pm
Steelers at Cowboys- Week 9 GDT - Giddyup!
I was hoping to see this with Tomlin's confident face.So this is why going for the 4th down conversion was the correct call at the end:
Let
P= probability Steelers convert
Q = probability Cowboys score a TD after Steelers don't convert
R = probability after Cowboys score a TD after Steelers kick the FG instead of going for conversion
then:
Probability Steelers win after the conversion attempt:
P+ (1-P)*(1-Q)
Probability Steelers win after going for the FG (I am infllating the chances a little by assuming 100% FG success)
1-R (i.e. Cowboys don't score a TD) PLUS
R/2 (Cowboys score but don't convert 2-pt attempt) PLUS
R/4 (Game goes to OT, Steelers have 50/50 shot)
So, conversion attempt makes sense if
P+(1-P)*(1-Q) > (1-R) + R/2 + R/4
P+(1-P)*(1-Q) > 1-R/4
Let's simplify and assume Q=R (which is unfair to the conversion attempt, because Cowboys would likely have a better starting position after the FG score, so, in reality R>Q)
then
P + (1-P)*(1-Q) > 1-Q/4
and, if my math is correct, this simply leads to
P>3/4
So, as long as the probability of conversion the "4th and 1" was greater than 3/4, going for it was the correct call (and 3/4 is likely even overstated due to the simplification Q=R).
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Beveridge, LeopardLetang, nocera, skullman80 and 200 guests