OFFICIAL GDT: ELECTION DAY/NIGHT -- BIDEN VS. TRUMP 11/3/20

[Morkle]

YA BUT HE POKED KAMALA’S DAUGHTER WHILE TALKING TO HER IN A MOMENT IF JOY.

WHAT A PEDE.

[crusherstasiak]

anyone know the name of the song harris came out on?

[NTP66]

anyone know the name of the song harris came out on?

“Work That” by Mary J. Blige.

[Willie Kool]

Man. I'm 32 and I still ain't cast a vote for a sitting president yet.

Maybe I'll hit em with the reverse logic next time around..

My first election was 1992, and this is only the second time I've voted for the winner at the top of the ticket.

I'm 5/9 since 1988, although I've only had the person I voted for in a primary win once. In '92 I worked for the local Jerry Brown campaign.

[Pavel Bure]

I feel a sense of normalcy right now.

Also, is this is the most animated I feel like I've seen Biden

He’s definitely refreshed and on his game.

He actually jogged out for his speech.

It's the little things.

Did he drink a glass of water?

[tifosi77]

He drank ONE-HANDED

[Tomas]

The strangest elections of my lifetime. Partially due to the fact that on ISideWith.com , I somehow managed to get agreement at below 50% (actually, mid- to low-40s) with BOTH major party candidates... I guess I am turning into an old cynic...

[Tomas]

I feel a sense of normalcy right now.

Also, is this is the most animated I feel like I've seen Biden

He’s definitely refreshed and on his game.

He actually jogged out for his speech.

It's the little things.

Today in the morning, you could buy and sell contracts on Kamala Harris' victory on Betfair. Not huge sums, but you could easily sell about $100 of Harris-winner contracts - which means there were people willing to buy Harris at the right price. The "right price" in the morning was about 330:1 (that is, people were willing to bet about $100 just in case Biden is unable to accept presidency 2 months from now - and win $33,000).

Well, after the Biden's jog - you can still sell Harris - but the price instantaneously jumped to 580+ to 1!

[dodint]

After being exposed for the nothing that it is my hope is the bet market nonsense ends with this thread.

[Freddy Rumsen]

[Tomas]

After being exposed for the nothing that it is my hope is the bet market nonsense ends with this thread.

I know you are trolling, but at the end, it was the prediction markets that (a) came the closest to the eventual Electoral College vote distribution and (b) rightfully predicted that the election was far closer than any of the polling aggregator services (by giving Trump about 35% chance of victory, whereas all the pollsters were giving Trump 10% or less)

[willeyeam]

After being exposed for the nothing that it is my hope is the bet market nonsense ends with this thread.

I know you are trolling, but at the end, it was the prediction markets that (a) came the closest to the eventual Electoral College vote distribution and (b) rightfully predicted that the election was far closer than any of the polling aggregator services (by giving Trump about 35% chance of victory, whereas all the pollsters were giving Trump 10% or less)

They were both wrong - the correct number was 0

[Willie Kool]

Today in the morning, you could buy and sell contracts on Kamala Harris' victory on Betfair. Not huge sums, but you could easily sell about $100 of Harris-winner contracts - which means there were people willing to buy Harris at the right price. The "right price" in the morning was about 330:1 (that is, people were willing to bet about $100 just in case Biden is unable to accept presidency 2 months from now - and win $33,000).

Well, after the Biden's jog - you can still sell Harris - but the price instantaneously jumped to 580+ to 1!

I'd be more inclined to put some money on Pence assuming the presidency to pardon Trump than on Harris replacing Biden before the inauguration.

[Tomas]

Today in the morning, you could buy and sell contracts on Kamala Harris' victory on Betfair. Not huge sums, but you could easily sell about $100 of Harris-winner contracts - which means there were people willing to buy Harris at the right price. The "right price" in the morning was about 330:1 (that is, people were willing to bet about $100 just in case Biden is unable to accept presidency 2 months from now - and win $33,000).

Well, after the Biden's jog - you can still sell Harris - but the price instantaneously jumped to 580+ to 1!

I'd be more inclined to put some money on Pence assuming the presidency to pardon Trump than on Harris replacing Biden before the inauguration.

I am pretty sure the prediction markets contracts are for the President who will be inaugurated in January 2021.

[MWB]

It was interesting seeing the betting markets leading up to the election, and how that fared versus polls. However, once votes started getting counted, it seemed to go with the whims of the current vote totals.

[blackjack68]

Someone is getting cut out of the will.

[PFiDC]

All that betting talk is beyond greek to me. Trump is a 538 tuna with a side bet of off shore 110+ at 3:1 if you bet $1.32 or more on a Tuesday contracts buy sell

[Tomas]

It was interesting seeing the betting markets leading up to the election, and how that fared versus polls. However, once votes started getting counted, it seemed to go with the whims of the current vote totals.

And there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. The reason I appreciate all free markets (including the prediction ones) is that at any given time, they provide the real consensus of where we are at the each particular moment. NY Times tried to do the same in 2016 (and for 3 states in 2020) with their sophisticated models that moved the "election needle" - and the prediction markets are even better because everybody who trades saw the needle - and some of the traders might have had even extra private info.

When watching an uncertain event developing, it's absolutely normal that the information flow will affect the evolution of predictions (even the NYT needle was clearly favoring Clinton in the early hours of 2016 election night, and Betfair at one point gave Clinton 93% chance of victory). What I like about the markets is that usually you can see the swings detected some time before "general public" (in case of election that includes TV networks) realizes them. For example, in 2016, Betfair started crossing into Trump victory territory before the needle did and WAY before TV networks noticed it.

[dodint]

I use 5AF for my emotional barometer.

[obhave]

I use 5AF for my emotional barometer.

I don't think that's doctor recommended.

[Pavel Bure]

Someone is getting cut out of the will.

Can you direct who massive debt goes to?

[MWB]

Maybe I’m missing something, but it didn’t seem like much of a “predictor” when vote started getting counted. Seemed to ignore the factual aspect of mail in votes, which threw it out of whack. Or not?

[Tomas]

Maybe I’m missing something, but it didn’t seem like much of a “predictor” when vote started getting counted. Seemed to ignore the factual aspect of mail in votes, which threw it out of whack. Or not?

I think the response would be "you can't predict what you have never seen yet". We should not be cocky ex-post - pretty much everybody thought on Tuesday late evening that Trump's lead was menacing. NYT needle had Georgia with 90% chance of Trump's victory - even though they said that GA was one of the few states that allowed NYT gain detailed knowledge of the vote distribution. The imballance of mail-in votes between D and R was simply unexpected - and laughing at "prediction markets that did not see the mail-in votes" is akin to laughing at ESPN game prediction model that today gave Clemson 97.8% chance of victory with 2:45 to go. How come the stupid model could not predict the unbelievable determination of Notre Dame that is a known game changer (which lead to ND victory)?

[dodint]

Trumps whole strategy, which was very transparent, was to discredit the mail-in vote which was going to be unprecedented thanks to COVID.

I don't see a surprise here other than the Trump base coming out as strong as it did to make the inevitable take five days instead of one.

Your mechanism picked the wrong candidate after the polls were closed. It's an interesting novelty.

[RonnieFranchise]

Trump supporters claiming voter fraud are severely underestimating the number of people who voted against him solely because the man is a **** national embarrassment.