Fifth Avenue Forum

Just this page of this thread perfectly encapsulates my feelings. Most saying to be aware but not panicked, and the LITT comes in with "WE. ARE. ****."

I guess it's really just comes down to what amounts to something we need to panic about.

I think it's as much of an economic panic as it is a health crisis panic. An outbreak would require extreme civil disruption to stem the spread. Which would cause commercial gridlocks, and because the global economy is so intertwined that these disruptions will cause drops in GDP projections. That's why the markets are panicking, they see massive uncertainty.

Likewise, with the Flu I was back to work after missing three days. Could have even made it two if I wanted to push it.
With COVID-19, you're looking at a 14 day layoff. How's your short term disability insurance?

just found out my building where I work has been designated the quarantine location for the town

That's not good.

I'll put my swine flu against Corona anytime, anywhere.

We should be very worried and we are underprepared. The government is trying not to be alarmist, but we need to be. The testing guidelines and epidemiologic analysis of where the risk areas are is incorrect, from my opinion. Please wash your hands.

I agree. I do not like the idea of downplaying this for political or any other reasons. There is a lot of misconception surrounding COVID-19, and a lot of the loudest people talking about it clearly have no knowledge of epidemiology or anything else. I think sometimes there is such a knee-jerk reaction to perceived "panic" that people tend to downplay existent threats.

That's not good.

By default, why then weren't the journalists taken in as well, they were in proximity of him breathing lol.

One thing to also bear in mind: Since COVID is a brand new virus, knowledge about its spread and immunology is limited, which means health professionals have to presume a much broader footprint than with other viral outbreaks. So while mortality from something like SARS was much much higher than COVID, the potential number of cases of COVID infection is like nine figures greater, globally.

Basically, it's The Last Of Us without the pretty mushroom graphics.

One thing to also bear in mind: Since COVID is a brand new virus, knowledge about its spread and immunology is limited, which means health professionals have to presume a much broader footprint than with other viral outbreaks. So while mortality from something like SARS was much much higher than COVID, the potential number of cases of COVID infection is like nine figures greater, globally.

Basically, it's The Last Of Us without the pretty mushroom graphics.

Which is why the reported mortality rate might be high. I think swine flu was originally reported as a 7% mortality rate, and after gathering the data it was found to be the same as the “regular” flu.

One thing to also bear in mind: Since COVID is a brand new virus, knowledge about its spread and immunology is limited, which means health professionals have to presume a much broader footprint than with other viral outbreaks. So while mortality from something like SARS was much much higher than COVID, the potential number of cases of COVID infection is like nine figures greater, globally.

Basically, it's The Last Of Us without the pretty mushroom graphics.

If this thing turns people into Bloaters I'm **** out.

From all the stuff I have read about corny, if you are under 60 and healthy you will be fine. Us old guys might not, but I'm not staying home

Is this a controlled spread?

A very nice summary of data that is being constantly updated:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

One thing that IMO makes this a very significant event is the percentage of cases that end up severe. From the Worldometers site:

180 new cases and 5 new deaths in Italy. Among the 472 active cases from an earlier report, 159 (34%) are hospitalized and 37 (8%) are in intensive care.

I've seen reports that about 5% of cases require intensive hospital care. Now, that number might be overstated due to mild cases being undercounted or undetected, but even something like 2% would be a far higher percentage of severe cases than influenza. For example, there are only about 800,000 staffed hospital beds in the US. Let's say 2% of those infected with COVID-19 would require hospitalization. At a 2% rate of hospitalization, 40 million infected persons would completely fill those hospital beds, and that's only about 12% of the US population. A widespread pandemic-style spread could easily infect more people than that.

Another thing to remember is that there appears to be no prior immunity to COVID-19. Influenza kills tens of thousands of people each year even though a whole lot of people get flu shots. There is no vaccine for COVID-19, and no one has ever had it before, so no one carries any immunity. Theoretically, every single person on the planet might get infected. That's not going to happen, but if even 10% of the global population gets infected, we're looking at the potential of millions of global deaths.

Like others have mentioned, this administration and country are unshockingly unprepared for this.

Like others have mentioned, this administration and country are unshockingly unprepared for this.

Not to turn this political, but I hope you don't think this would have been different under any other administration. The CDC was turned into just another bureaucracy many years ago.

Like others have mentioned, this administration and country are unshockingly unprepared for this.

Not to turn this political, but I hope you don't think this would have been different under any other administration. The CDC was turned into just another bureaucracy many years ago.

Different, sure. Still unprepared, yep

Question as a non-medical professional.. is it that obvious if you have it? ie, there could be scores of people going to the doctor and the doctor says you have a cold, take it easy see you later.

Like, if I have a cold tomorrow I'd feel a little overboard asking my doc to test me for coronavirus

I don’t know that it seems like anything more than normal cold or flu at the start.

Question as a non-medical professional.. is it that obvious if you have it? ie, there could be scores of people going to the doctor and the doctor says you have a cold, take it easy see you later.

A mild case of COVID-19 would be just like a cold. It wouldn't be obvious. And unless there are risk factors from the patient history, such as recent travel outside the US or exposure to other people who have recently traveled outside the US, the doctors probably wouldn't test for it. The ability to test for the virus is pretty limited, anyway.