Fifth Avenue Forum

Thought this subject was getting important enough to get its own thread. Today for the first time the number of new infections outside China exceeded the number of new infections inside China (well, assuming China's numbers are honest). In the last several days, infected persons have been found in:

Norway
Georgia
Bahrain
Iraq
Kuwait
Oman
Algeria
Austria
Croatia
Germany
Spain
Switzerland
Brazil

Infections are continuing to rise rapidly in Italy and South Korea. Given the lack of travel restrictions between the US and Europe, it is pretty much inevitable at this point that COVID-19 will start circulating in the US, assuming it is not already.

So am I understanding correctly, that I have a 10% chance of dying if I contract COVID-19, vs. a 1% chance with the influenza virus... but I have a lesser likelihood of actually contracting the COVID-19 virus?

I mean I made it through SARS... bird flu... H1N1... how's this one different? ELI5

Also, hasn't China implemented some extremely draconian measures to quarantine the spread of the virus. I'm thinking things that would probably be unimaginable in the US.

So am I understanding correctly, that I have a 10% chance of dying if I contract COVID-19, vs. a 1% chance with the influenza virus... but I have a lesser likelihood of actually contracting the COVID-19 virus?

Normal flu is about .1% mortality rate. COVID-19 is at an estimated 2ish% right now, but the data is a disaster so there’s a high margin for error around that number. SARS had a 10% mortality rate.

So am I understanding correctly, that I have a 10% chance of dying if I contract COVID-19, vs. a 1% chance with the influenza virus... but I have a lesser likelihood of actually contracting the COVID-19 virus?

If you get it, you will probably survive as long as you are young and not infirm.

My understanding is that the difference is the vulnerability to outbreak. Basically, if you're exposed, quarantine is the only way to prevent spreading the disease.

So am I understanding correctly, that I have a 10% chance of dying if I contract COVID-19, vs. a 1% chance with the influenza virus... but I have a lesser likelihood of actually contracting the COVID-19 virus?

It's much lower than that. The mortality rate for COVID-19 appears to be in the range of 2% or so of those who get it, at least based on the data we have so far. Most of those who die are elderly or have other medical conditions. That is higher than influenza, which usually has a mortality rate well under 1% for those infected. Also, influenza causes a lot of serious infections and deaths for infants and children, while COVID-19 doesn't seem so far to be very serious for children.

COVID-19 does appear to cause a much higher percentage of serious cases. The number of influenza infections that are bad enough to require hospitalization (for complications like pneumonia) is under 5%. But the number of COVID-19 infections that get that bad is apparantly on the order of 15%, and around 5% are bad enough to require intensive care.

My company just suspended all flights to South Korea as of yesterday, and China like two months ago. We're getting smoked in the global china market, their economy is hurting us.

A number of airlines have cut off Italy, and a lot of the flights that are still going there are empty due to lack of demand. Same for South Korea. This is going to cost billions for the global airline industry.

Supposed to go to Italy in May. Time for this **** to end.

Hope Italy contains it. I'm a month away from heading to Germany.

Solid, informative article on the outbreak so far and what potentially to expect moving forward (including when a proper cure might arrive):
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... ne/607000/

We're supposed to do London, Paris, Barcelona, Florence, Rome, and Switzerland. Exploring Germany as an alternative to Italy, so yea the least they can do is keep it within their borders and not ruin my vacation.

Good comments on the mortality rate. If you are healthy and not very young or old, your personal mortality rate is likely far lower than whatever data they have. The inverse is true if you do fall into one of those categories

First confirmed US case of unknown origin confirmed in NoCal.

Good comments on the mortality rate. If you are healthy and not very young or old, your personal mortality rate is likely far lower than whatever data they have. The inverse is true if you do fall into one of those categories

What's very young? I haven't seen any reports of child or infant deaths yet, but maybe I've just missed them.

Front the analysis of death cases, it emerged that the demographic profile was mainly male, accounting for 2/3, females accounting for 1/3, and is mainly elderly, more than 80% are elderly over 60 years old, and more than 75% had underlying diseases present such as cardiovascular and cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and, in some cases, tumor.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/

There have been some reported child deaths in China, but for the most part not that many children seem to get it, and for the vast majority who do, the symptoms are mild. Researchers aren't sure why it doesn't seem to affect children as much. Interestingly, SARS and MERS didn't seem to affect children that much either:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... n-faq.html

I guess I'm fracked.

I guess I'm fracked.

Me too. Male, 70 and COPD. three strikes against.

As a special area of interest for me, the Japanese Sumo Association will be meeting on March 1st to determine whether the Osaka tournament (scheduled for March 8–22) will go forward. The Japanese government hasn't ordered the cancellation of sporting events, but it has "strongly encouraged" that public events and gatherings not take place. The Japanese soccer league has postponed games, and the Japanese baseball league is holding its preseason games without spectators. My guess at this point is that the Sumo Association would probably cancel the tournament outright rather than hold it without spectators.

SHOO SHOO

That's gonna be a no from me dawg

I'm glad I work from home.