COVID-19

[faftorial]

[NTP66]

Don’t jerk off into your armpit?

[faftorial]

@Gaucho

[Gaucho]

Because many people wear masks under their noses, the BVG calls on commuters to stop using deodorant.

[NTP66]

You know what? I like the angle. Well done.

[offsides]

I know it is a holiday weekend and the world meter numbers might not mean much but, we had the lowest deaths reported in the US today since March 23rd. We will see what happens in a couple weeks with these increased positive numbers we've been getting. Hopefully deaths continue the down arrow.

[grunthy]

I know it is a holiday weekend and the world meter numbers might not mean much but, we had the lowest deaths reported in the US today since March 23rd. We will see what happens in a couple weeks with these increased positive numbers we've been getting. Hopefully deaths continue the down arrow.

It’s actually closer to real per day. New York had 8, 24 hour deaths but reported 33 total deaths that go back weeks.

NJ is similar as well with back dates.

[blackjack68]

In NJ we always have low numbers on Sunday and Monday because not all hospitals report over the weekend. Let’s see what Tuesday brings.

[offsides]

In NJ we always have low numbers on Sunday and Monday because not all hospitals report over the weekend. Let’s see what Tuesday brings.

Yep, in the world meter, Tuesday is the peak day every week in US. The 7 day average is pretty much real numbers.

[grunthy]

In NJ we always have low numbers on Sunday and Monday because not all hospitals report over the weekend. Let’s see what Tuesday brings.

Yep, in the world meter, Tuesday is the peak day every week in US. The 7 day average is pretty much real numbers.

Nope. CDC excess deaths are the real numbers. We aren’t losing 500 people a day. Haven’t been for a couple weeks.

[Troy Loney]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Not sure where you are seeing that. For week ending 6/6/2020 4300 people died. And the CDC little note says that only 60% of deaths are reported to the cdc within 10 days. And if you look at that chart from week to week, they are going back and adding casualties from as far back as April.

I think I would just wait a bit to assess the impact of this current spike in the south and southwest. It does seem like this is a new strand, more infectious, less lethal, but I would hesitate to assume that we know what the outcomes will be. It seems like a rather fluid situation with multiple push/pull factors. Better treatments allowing for more recoveries, spreading among less vulnerable, but with the timing, we are likely identifying the cases earlier, so the lag between cases and outcomes might be longer than we saw in March.

[count2infinity]

I guess I don't fully understand ignoring deaths that came from weeks ago, while also ignoring the fact that there are deaths this week that won't be counted until weeks from now.

Either way, deaths are seemingly down, so that's a good thing. Hospitals in Texas are struggling according to the report I heard on NPR over the weekend. I haven't looked, but hopefully Arizona and Florida aren't experiencing the same struggles.

[count2infinity]

I think I would just wait a bit to assess the impact of this current spike in the south and southwest. It does seem like this is a new strand, more infectious, less lethal, but I would hesitate to assume that we know what the outcomes will be.

I don't think that's the case... I think it's just healthier and/or younger people are getting it now, especially in the hot spot areas. Old people know the risks, and even the most die hard MAGA tough guys understand mortality when you get to that age. My father-in-law is a good example. Former police officer, very conservative, right wing, tough guy... he's staying home. He's taking precautions. He's older and has had respiratory issues, so he's at risk. Old folks homes have seen the death sentence this thing is for their patients, I would hope they too are taking the necessary precautions to keep their residents safe.

[King Colby]

Apparently the struggles in Texas are not due to bed capacity, but staffing capacity.

[NAN]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Not sure where you are seeing that. For week ending 6/6/2020 4300 people died. And the CDC little note says that only 60% of deaths are reported to the cdc within 10 days. And if you look at that chart from week to week, they are going back and adding casualties from as far back as April.

I think I would just wait a bit to assess the impact of this current spike in the south and southwest. It does seem like this is a new strand, more infectious, less lethal, but I would hesitate to assume that we know what the outcomes will be. It seems like a rather fluid situation with multiple push/pull factors. Better treatments allowing for more recoveries, spreading among less vulnerable, but with the timing, we are likely identifying the cases earlier, so the lag between cases and outcomes might be longer than we saw in March.

[count2infinity]

Apparently the struggles in Texas are not due to bed capacity, but staffing capacity.

Still... that's not a good thing.

[King Colby]

Apparently the struggles in Texas are not due to bed capacity, but staffing capacity.

Still... that's not a good thing.

not at all, but it is an important distinction. They have places to put people at least

[skullman80]

Even if you have places to put people in the hospital if there is no one there qualified to actually take care of them.... then not sure how that really makes that much of a difference? They still won't get the care they need.

I guess at a base level you are at least hooked up to equipment that could monitor your vitals etc which is better than nothing.

[grunthy]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Not sure where you are seeing that. For week ending 6/6/2020 4300 people died. And the CDC little note says that only 60% of deaths are reported to the cdc within 10 days. And if you look at that chart from week to week, they are going back and adding casualties from as far back as April.

I think I would just wait a bit to assess the impact of this current spike in the south and southwest. It does seem like this is a new strand, more infectious, less lethal, but I would hesitate to assume that we know what the outcomes will be. It seems like a rather fluid situation with multiple push/pull factors. Better treatments allowing for more recoveries, spreading among less vulnerable, but with the timing, we are likely identifying the cases earlier, so the lag between cases and outcomes might be longer than we saw in March.

1500 more. You don’t take the average and subtract, you take the excess threshold and subtract.

Most places are seeing 50% or higher suicides, drug over doses and others. It is wrong to attribute every death about average to covid. This would be way more accurate.

Also CDC lag time is over 80% of deaths are uploaded to the cdc within 2 weeks, 90% or more after 3 weeks.

[Troy Loney]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Not sure where you are seeing that. For week ending 6/6/2020 4300 people died. And the CDC little note says that only 60% of deaths are reported to the cdc within 10 days. And if you look at that chart from week to week, they are going back and adding casualties from as far back as April.

I think I would just wait a bit to assess the impact of this current spike in the south and southwest. It does seem like this is a new strand, more infectious, less lethal, but I would hesitate to assume that we know what the outcomes will be. It seems like a rather fluid situation with multiple push/pull factors. Better treatments allowing for more recoveries, spreading among less vulnerable, but with the timing, we are likely identifying the cases earlier, so the lag between cases and outcomes might be longer than we saw in March.

1500 more. You don’t take the average and subtract, you take the excess threshold and subtract.

Most places are seeing 50% or higher suicides, drug over doses and others. It is wrong to attribute every death about average to covid. This would be way more accurate.

Also CDC lag time is over 80% of deaths are uploaded to the cdc within 2 weeks, 90% or more after 3 weeks.

That number is just the people that died of COVID. Maybe I just don't see what you are getting at, was just looking at that 500/day thing and not seeing it line up with that CDC info.

[King Colby]

I still don't get where the 1500 comes from

[LITT]

Apparently the struggles in Texas are not due to bed capacity, but staffing capacity.

Still... that's not a good thing.

not at all, but it is an important distinction. They have places to put people at least

the interesting balance here is the travel nurse aspect. many of the travel staff are now mercenaries - going in to COVID zones for 10K/week. once their assignment is done/the need is gone, they take another assignment. several of the outbreaks in senior facilities have been attributed to travelers coming and infecting a cohort of patients and permanent staff.

[grunthy]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Not sure where you are seeing that. For week ending 6/6/2020 4300 people died. And the CDC little note says that only 60% of deaths are reported to the cdc within 10 days. And if you look at that chart from week to week, they are going back and adding casualties from as far back as April.

I think I would just wait a bit to assess the impact of this current spike in the south and southwest. It does seem like this is a new strand, more infectious, less lethal, but I would hesitate to assume that we know what the outcomes will be. It seems like a rather fluid situation with multiple push/pull factors. Better treatments allowing for more recoveries, spreading among less vulnerable, but with the timing, we are likely identifying the cases earlier, so the lag between cases and outcomes might be longer than we saw in March.

1500 more. You don’t take the average and subtract, you take the excess threshold and subtract.

Most places are seeing 50% or higher suicides, drug over doses and others. It is wrong to attribute every death about average to covid. This would be way more accurate.

Also CDC lag time is over 80% of deaths are uploaded to the cdc within 2 weeks, 90% or more after 3 weeks.

That number is just the people that died of COVID. Maybe I just don't see what you are getting at, was just looking at that 500/day thing and not seeing it line up with that CDC info.

Only like 5-7 states are having more than 10 people die a day from covid right now. Arizona, florida, California, and texas are all around 20 a day. Most states are less than 2-3 a day.

[Troy Loney]

Only like 5-7 states are having more than 10 people die a day from covid right now. Arizona, florida, California, and texas are all around 20 a day. Most states are less than 2-3 a day.

I think I have some questions as to the methods different states are using to report fatalities. For one, there is the natural lag in reporting and confirming COVID fatalities. There was some story about PA nursing homes going back and revising their lists to remove patients that "recovered" from COVID. Which seems odd to me, especially considering how COVID impact is linked to other complications like pneumonia and stroke.

I think ultimately, it's unfortunate that the whole "true" impact of COVID has become so politicized that we are debating this. The pandemonium that NYC and Italy went through is not happening anywhere else, and thank heavens for that, and hopefully the new spread has doesn't have similar impact in FL, CA, TX and AZ. So the we're really just arguing a hypothetical.

[LITT]

Only like 5-7 states are having more than 10 people die a day from covid right now. Arizona, florida, California, and texas are all around 20 a day. Most states are less than 2-3 a day.

I think I have some questions as to the methods different states are using to report fatalities. For one, there is the natural lag in reporting and confirming COVID fatalities. There was some story about PA nursing homes going back and revising their lists to remove patients that "recovered" from COVID. Which seems odd to me, especially considering how COVID impact is linked to other complications like pneumonia and stroke.

I think ultimately, it's unfortunate that the whole "true" impact of COVID has become so politicized that we are debating this. The pandemonium that NYC and Italy went through is not happening anywhere else, and thank heavens for that, and hopefully the new spread has doesn't have similar impact in FL, CA, TX and AZ. So the we're really just arguing a hypothetical.

theres also a delay in disease progression. if we are seeing an uptick in hospitalizations nationally over the last 5 days, you would expect to see the death toll increase for 14-21 days after that. not saying i expect that to occur; however, if we are saying the deaths aren't increase, this would be expected siince we had a dip in cases 14-21 days ago