COVID-19

[genoscoif]

I think up until delta it wouldn't have been that much higher. Maybe 2x? Masks and distancing helped but it still did tear through nursing homes anyway and 80-85% of them survived.

Delta though, I mean look at what it's doing to the unvaccinated. Imagine if everyone was unvaxxed. 5x? 10x? 20x?

I don't think Delta is significantly more deadly on its own, but it's, what, 2x more contagious. If that would've been ripping through the country May-Nov last year with no vax or effective treatments...yikes. on the whole, the US pretty much avoided the overrun hospital issue. Pretty sure that would not have been the case with delta.

[shmenguin]

It’s more deadly because it’s more contagious

[King Colby]

I thought delta was killing way more people under 50 than prior variants?

[Tomas]

I think up until delta it wouldn't have been that much higher. Maybe 2x? Masks and distancing helped but it still did tear through nursing homes anyway and 80-85% of them survived.

Delta though, I mean look at what it's doing to the unvaccinated. Imagine if everyone was unvaxxed. 5x? 10x? 20x?

I don't think Delta is significantly more deadly on its own, but it's, what, 2x more contagious. If that would've been ripping through the country May-Nov last year with no vax or effective treatments...yikes. on the whole, the US pretty much avoided the overrun hospital issue. Pretty sure that would not have been the case with delta.

Frankly, "Delta" is a big mystery to me. I live in a state that can serve as a "placebo" control - no masks and low vaccination rates. Was there a recent spike? Yes. But as it went up, it went steadily (and quite quickly, especially recently) down. Today, the 7-day average of new cases is more than 65% below the spike level (reached in August). The 7-day cases/population for the state is now more than 20% BELOW the US average (quite shocking given how big obesity, heart disease, diabetes, .... are in the state). And while deaths went up, the wave was nowhere near as deadly as the last winter (it may be vaccinations, it also may be treatment options - I know first-hand that monoclonal antibodies are widely available in-state). Outliers aside, extremely LOW incidence of COVID complications for children, etc.etc.

[King Colby]

The combination of vaccination plus prior recovery (or both for the best of the best like me) has kept delta under much better control.

I remember all the chat about "herd immunity" and I kept saying it's a stupid concept because people treat it like some kind of a threshold but it's really a spectrum. It seems like delta has been able to be controlled much better because there aren't that many good hosts available. Even the breakthrough infections... those people seem to get better relatively quickly and probably aren't spreading it as much (despite "studies" that show vaxxed can spread as readily as unvaxxed... pretty sure it was shmenguin who made the point that if they're sicker shorter they're naturally spreading it less)

[Tomas]

The combination of vaccination plus prior recovery (or both for the best of the best like me) has kept delta under much better control.

I remember all the chat about "herd immunity" and I kept saying it's a stupid concept because people treat it like some kind of a threshold but it's really a spectrum. It seems like delta has been able to be controlled much better because there aren't that many good hosts available. Even the breakthrough infections... those people seem to get better relatively quickly and probably aren't spreading it as much (despite "studies" that show vaxxed can spread as readily as unvaxxed... pretty sure it was shmenguin who made the point that if they're sicker shorter they're naturally spreading it less)

Being vaccinated, I'd like to believe that vaccinations mattered, but I don't think I can describe how "untouched by vaccines & masks" huge parts of Midwest and South are. I live in a rich "affluent" corner of the state, where vax rates are decent and where - at least in my hometown - most people would wear masks in grocery stores. But then you have the rest of the state where vax rates are dismal and masks completely non-existent. And the progression of the Delta wave was pretty much identical...

[Troy Loney]

Yeah, but rural Arkansas was good about taking their ivermectin

[King Colby]

Lol.

Also just generally the spread of people in the more rural areas makes significantly less contact opportunities.

[Tomas]

Lol.

Also just generally the spread of people in the more rural areas makes significantly less contact opportunities.

I am not talking about necessarily "rural". I am talking about cities of 70,000 - 100,000 (even more in states like Texas) with no vaccinations, no masks - and the Delta progressions, rates, deaths,... nearly identical to those cities that have masks/vaccinations (both going up quickly and then dropping down also quickly). Ultimately, I think the main determinant of cross-state differences is not the strength of COVID restrictions, vaccine mandates, etc. - but simply the overall health of state's population...

[shmenguin]

People in rural areas have similar habits to people in developed areas. They go to bars, restaurants, supermarkets. They spread the same way other people spread. It’s not like COVID happens when you’re waiting to cross 5th Avenue.

[NTP66]

[meow]

Math is hard

[shafnutz05]

I told you all about the PTO president that is a pretty big anti masker (and possibly anti Vax too I'm guessing). Well, sht got real last week. She has also kept her kids home this year too, which in the bylaws disqualifies her.

The superintendent of the district basically told the other three officers (including my wife) that if she doesn't resign, they have to vote her out. Mainly because they don't want her agitating for people to be disruptive in her capacity as PTO president. She did end up resigning, but has been going scorched earth on everyone. Posting on Facebook, dropping all of the PTO **** in a big pile in the one mom's driveway, etc.

I feel bad for my wife. This has been a nightmare. I can't share half of it.

[meow]

Cat fight!

[NTP66]

Good riddance to her, too.

[Beveridge]

I can't share half of it.

Not with that attitude.

[PFiDC]

Booster shot really **** up my arm. Injection site pain is really bad. Got a flu shot at the time and that one is also pretty sore but not as bad.

[King Colby]

Oh man... Pfidc... less than a God but more than a man.

[PFiDC]

Centaur?

[King Colby]

But that would mean you rank horse above man.

[PFiDC]

.... merman?

[King Colby]

Now we're goin.

[Nuge]

FDA Panel meeting on October 14th and 15th about Moderna and J&J boosters (and mix and match) and on October 26th about the Pfizer 5-11 vaccine.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/0 ... nes-514897

[NTP66]

My pediatrician posted that a few days ago. Hopefully that means they'll approve it right before Halloween.

[PFiDC]

My pediatrician posted that a few days ago. Hopefully that means they'll approve it right before Halloween.

Remember it takes time for the vaccine to take effect. A 10/31 approval date still means it won't be until maybe Christmas (or later) when most kids are fully vaxxed.