COVID-19

robbiestoupe
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COVID-19

Postby robbiestoupe » Wed Nov 18, 2020 12:46 pm

I thought we were on the cusp of herd immunity....?
Only if you're one of the sheeple and get The Shot

Good thing about the first 20-30 million doses: even if us regulars don't get it, the number of cases should start going down dramatically. You have to think these front line workers are also some of the super spreaders. Not their fault, just the nature of their business. And of course, the less people there are to contract the virus, the less it spreads.

tifosi77
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COVID-19

Postby tifosi77 » Wed Nov 18, 2020 12:55 pm

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

There are a bit under 12 million active COVID cases in the US right now. If the number of people with antibodies can be nearly tripled in a month without them having live infections............. that would be a good thing. I mean, that's the general mechanic of a vaccine, but still. Honestly, for the first time since all started I have a fair degree of hope and optimism for our relative near term prospects. It's tempered by the reality of what distributing any of these vax candidates will look like, but still. It feels like the first crack of morning light before the dawn.

grunthy
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COVID-19

Postby grunthy » Wed Nov 18, 2020 1:02 pm

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

There are a bit under 12 million active COVID cases in the US right now. If the number of people with antibodies can be nearly tripled in a month without them having live infections............. that would be a good thing. I mean, that's the general mechanic of a vaccine, but still. Honestly, for the first time since all started I have a fair degree of hope and optimism for our relative near term prospects. It's tempered by the reality of what distributing any of these vax candidates will look like, but still. It feels like the first crack of morning light before the dawn.
The CDC says the IFR is estimated somewhere around .4%, from my understanding. This would imply that somewhere around 65 million have had it in the USA.

offsides
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COVID-19

Postby offsides » Wed Nov 18, 2020 1:14 pm

Ugh, this is our last chance for a bit to really make some real progress on de-populating...
The vaccine could go horribly wrong. There is always light at the end of the that tunnel
My Dad told me last night that he wouldn't take the vaccine because they don't know the long term side effects. This, between smoke breaks. :face:
Legit lol’d at this.

“I don’t know what that vaccine will do long term” as they stuff their faces with butter and sugar
Hey quit making fun of us old stupid boomers. :scared:

MalkinIsMyHomeboy
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COVID-19

Postby MalkinIsMyHomeboy » Wed Nov 18, 2020 1:16 pm

is there an estimate of total number of people who have had the virus (either with or without symptoms) thus far?

King Colby
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COVID-19

Postby King Colby » Wed Nov 18, 2020 1:29 pm

I think a reasonable estimate of true cases is 5x-10x what is being reported so 60M on the low end. So if 18% of the population already had it, another 5% or so get vaccinated in December, and another 20M or so get infected by the end of 2020 (assumes 4M confirmed cases over 6 weeks times the 5x multiplier), that basically renders ~1/3 of the population removed from the available infection pool by the first of the year

tifosi77
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COVID-19

Postby tifosi77 » Wed Nov 18, 2020 1:32 pm

That presumes a level of immunization from re-infection that is an unknown quantity at this point. If COVID is like the seasonal flu, that means you can get it again and again, and we've already seen evidence of multiple strains of thing in different clusters of infection. It is not yet known if antibodies of one strain immunize you from another strain, or if the vaccine provides protection from multiple genetic variations.

grunthy
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COVID-19

Postby grunthy » Wed Nov 18, 2020 1:32 pm

I think a reasonable estimate of true cases is 5x-10x what is being reported so 60M on the low end. So if 18% of the population already had it, another 5% or so get vaccinated in December, and another 20M or so get infected by the end of 2020 (assumes 4M confirmed cases over 6 weeks times the 5x multiplier), that basically renders ~1/3 of the population removed from the available infection pool by the first of the year
I think it is possible to have up to 50-60% of the population vaccinated by April.

grunthy
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COVID-19

Postby grunthy » Wed Nov 18, 2020 1:34 pm

That presumes a level of immunization from re-infection that is an unknown quantity at this point. If COVID is like the seasonal flu, that means you can get it again and again, and we've already seen evidence of multiple strains of thing in different clusters of infection. It is not yet known if antibodies of one strain immunize you from another strain, or if the vaccine provides protection from multiple genetic variations.

tifosi77
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COVID-19

Postby tifosi77 » Wed Nov 18, 2020 1:41 pm

I certainly hope that's the case.

MalkinIsMyHomeboy
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COVID-19

Postby MalkinIsMyHomeboy » Wed Nov 18, 2020 1:51 pm

can't get COVID if you've already died from the botched vaccine

offsides
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COVID-19

Postby offsides » Wed Nov 18, 2020 1:59 pm

Any idea how long the vaccine is suppose to last? Could it be a yearly vaccine or last forever?

count2infinity
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COVID-19

Postby count2infinity » Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:01 pm

Any idea how long the vaccine is suppose to last? Could it be a yearly vaccine or last forever?
I find it impossible to really know that at this point...

offsides
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COVID-19

Postby offsides » Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:09 pm

Any idea how long the vaccine is suppose to last? Could it be a yearly vaccine or last forever?
I find it impossible to really know that at this point...
I hope it's not yearly. I am afraid a lot of youngins may not bother to get a yearly shot. I am used to getting a shot yearly and have been doing it for over 20 years. Two shots a year would be no biggie.

King Colby
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COVID-19

Postby King Colby » Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:12 pm

That presumes a level of immunization from re-infection that is an unknown quantity at this point. If COVID is like the seasonal flu, that means you can get it again and again, and we've already seen evidence of multiple strains of thing in different clusters of infection. It is not yet known if antibodies of one strain immunize you from another strain, or if the vaccine provides protection from multiple genetic variations.
Honestly, given the limited variation in the genetics of this virus I dont think this is much of a concern. It seems more likely that there are temporal considerations in that immunity wears off, as opposed to the things that we see with flu seasonality from rapid mutation.

count2infinity
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COVID-19

Postby count2infinity » Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:20 pm

Any idea how long the vaccine is suppose to last? Could it be a yearly vaccine or last forever?
I find it impossible to really know that at this point...
I hope it's not yearly. I am afraid a lot of youngins may not bother to get a yearly shot. I am used to getting a shot yearly and have been doing it for over 20 years. Two shots a year would be no biggie.
We'll see. Remember that this virus is novel. We knew nothing about this thing 1 year ago. It's hard to really know how long the vaccine will provide protection. A year? A decade? Lifelong? We'll learn as time moves on.

PFiDC
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COVID-19

Postby PFiDC » Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:26 pm

Any idea how long the vaccine is suppose to last? Could it be a yearly vaccine or last forever?
I find it impossible to really know that at this point...
I hope it's not yearly. I am afraid a lot of youngins may not bother to get a yearly shot. I am used to getting a shot yearly and have been doing it for over 20 years. Two shots a year would be no biggie.
I think more would get a Covid vaccine than a flu shot. The flu never shut down their parties.

grunthy
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COVID-19

Postby grunthy » Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:33 pm

Any idea how long the vaccine is suppose to last? Could it be a yearly vaccine or last forever?
I find it impossible to really know that at this point...
I hope it's not yearly. I am afraid a lot of youngins may not bother to get a yearly shot. I am used to getting a shot yearly and have been doing it for over 20 years. Two shots a year would be no biggie.
I think more would get a Covid vaccine than a flu shot. The flu never shut down their parties.
Probably just add it to the flu vaccine eventually

PFiDC
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COVID-19

Postby PFiDC » Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:40 pm

What do you mean add? They can combine multiple vaccines into one? TIL...

count2infinity
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COVID-19

Postby count2infinity » Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:40 pm

Mix the flu vaccine and the covid vaccine?!?! DO YOU WANT A SUPER FLU?!?!?

count2infinity
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COVID-19

Postby count2infinity » Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:41 pm

What do you mean add? They can combine multiple vaccines into one? TIL...
What do you think an MMR vaccine is?

grunthy
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COVID-19

Postby grunthy » Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:43 pm

What do you mean add? They can combine multiple vaccines into one? TIL...
TDap and MMR are combo vaccines.

Gaucho
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COVID-19

Postby Gaucho » Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:44 pm

c-c-c-combo vaccine

PFiDC
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COVID-19

Postby PFiDC » Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:54 pm

What do you mean add? They can combine multiple vaccines into one? TIL...
What do you think an MMR vaccine is?
I have no idea. I get a flu vaccine each year. My kid gets his vaccines when needed. I trust my doctor to tell me what vaccines to get and when. I don't keep up on vaccine news...

PFiDC
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COVID-19

Postby PFiDC » Wed Nov 18, 2020 2:55 pm

Upon a google search I see MMR stands for Measles Mumps and Rubella. So yeah, that makes sense. As I said, TIL.

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