COVID-19

grunthy
Posts: 18239
Joined: Thu Mar 26, 2015 8:29 pm

COVID-19

Postby grunthy » Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:57 am

Can someone inform me as to what attaining herd immunity via mass infection would look like in terms of numbers?

I've never considered it a viable (or even feasible) approach, because from what little reading I've done on the subject it seems that it would mean something like 130 million infections on the low end and nearly 300 million on the high end, and close to 8 million and 14 million deaths. And if the idea is "the cure can't be worse than the disease" in an effort to encourage mass reopening, infection will likely spread at a more aggressive rate than it already has, so the pressures we saw on many healthcare systems back in March and April (particularly in the northeast) would be magnified at a potentially (likely?) exponential increase in the number of cases in a short span of time.

If those numbers and presumptions are inaccurate, my apologies. But if they are in any way close to the mark, I'm curious what the possible counter-argument in favor of herd immunity via infection would be.
Read this thread from the guy who built the top projection model.

Okay so this guy is asserting a 60%-80% population threshold to achieve herd immunity through infection. What's the timeline for that, and how many death certificates with COVID-19 on line 3 does that represent?

He is saying an effective herd immunity of 10-35%. Since we know that antibodies aren’t the be all end all, and a significant if not majority of people don’t develop antibodies at all, we likely are higher infection rate than even he projects. That is because he is using AB tests, positive rate, and such to calculate his 14-15% of infection in the USA. I have seen studies that say it is 30-70% of people don’t develop antibodies. That would make infected population possibly be somewhere from 20-35%. So we might already be half way or more to herd immunity.

grunthy
Posts: 18239
Joined: Thu Mar 26, 2015 8:29 pm

COVID-19

Postby grunthy » Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:01 am

I've heard it's in the 2-3 million range.
Lol. What?

The best guess IFR of this virus is around .3-.5%.

grunthy
Posts: 18239
Joined: Thu Mar 26, 2015 8:29 pm

COVID-19

Postby grunthy » Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:06 am

I mean the actual CFR for Oklahoma below the age of 50 is .088%.

Troy Loney
Posts: 27604
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 3:03 pm

COVID-19

Postby Troy Loney » Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:52 am

I've heard it's in the 2-3 million range.
Lol. What?

The best guess IFR of this virus is around .3-.5%.
Which would indicate, based on the 190K reported deaths, that the US has had almost 48 million cases (over 14% of the population). So, maybe this IFR is not a reliable estimate.

tifosi77
Posts: 51632
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:07 pm
Location: Batuu

COVID-19

Postby tifosi77 » Wed Sep 02, 2020 11:00 am

Which would also indicate that if there have been 48 million (mostly asymptomatic) cases in the face of social distancing, shutdowns, etc., that this thing is hyper-transmissible.

faftorial
Posts: 14894
Joined: Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:35 pm
Location: Lengeschder

COVID-19

Postby faftorial » Wed Sep 02, 2020 11:23 am

It’s not something people like to talk about, but there’s a potential important source of covid-19 spread that deserves some attention: toilets.

Studies are showing that the novel coronavirus can be detected in stool samples and anal swab samples for weeks. In fact, scientists are testing wastewater as an early tracking system for outbreaks. And a recent case on an airplane identified the airplane bathroom as the potential source.

Here’s what we know: When you flush a toilet, the churning and bubbling of water aerosolizes fecal matter. That creates particles that will float in the air, which we will now politely call “bioaerosols” for the rest of this article.

Mmmmm, bioaerosols.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... Fstory-ans

Ad@m
Posts: 4835
Joined: Mon Apr 24, 2017 4:21 pm

COVID-19

Postby Ad@m » Wed Sep 02, 2020 11:24 am

A story from my local newspaper

Susan reflects on her fight with COVID-19
Susan makes her way out of her house and onto the back porch, slowly but surely, using her walker. She’s hooked up to an oxygen tank that allows her to breathe easier as she continues to recover from her illness. She says her walking and breathing are getting better every day.

She takes a seat at the table with her husband, Dan.

As she goes to sit down, her oxygen tube gets tangled up, so Dan fixes it for her.


Now they’re ready to talk about Susan’s experiences of suffering from and ultimately fighting off COVID-19.

“I just hope nobody else gets it, because that’s the scariest thing I ever went through,” Susan said.

Susan spent 22 days on a ventilator at UPMC Magee-Womens Hospital in Pittsburgh after she started having trouble breathing back in July.

“I got down (to Magee-Womens Hospital) and got out of the helicopter and I was really having trouble breathing,” Susan said. “When you’re having trouble breathing, you try to breathe right but that’s all you can do. You can’t sleep, you can’t eat, you just watch that monitor and hope you can keep breathing.”

“The scariest part is not having enough oxygen when you think you should have enough,” she added.

Susan said by her second night in the hospital, she had come to terms with possibly never leaving that hospital room.

“When I was pretty sure they were going to intubate me, I was like ‘I’m done.’ People usually don’t come back from intubation,” she said. “But also I’m so tired of fighting the breathing, but that’s how it has to be.”

“IT LOOKED LIKE TORTURE TO ME.”

Dan made the trip to Pittsburgh almost every day to see his wife, who was tied down to a hospital bed with a tube down her throat, all while still being conscious.

Susan had to be tied down to the hospital bed so she couldn’t take the tube out.

“When I walked in and saw that she was awake… it looked like torture to me,” Dan said.

“It was,” Susan agreed.

She couldn’t talk, she couldn’t move, she was stuck, which was not only constricting but also made communication extremely frustrating. Even something as simple as telling a nurse that her nose was itchy became a frustrating process.

“Even if my arms weren’t tied down, they wouldn’t go where I wanted them to,” Susan said.

Susan said one of the worst parts of the entire experience were the delusions that came with the drugs and the sickness.

“It was just all ugly, scary stuff,” she said.

It was difficult for her to stay with reality and, even now, sometimes has a hard time remembering exactly what happened at the hospital. It got especially bad when the doctors started taking Susan off the medications and she began to fight with reality.

“There were times that I’d get a call from the hospital where she was in delirium so bad that they wanted me to FaceTime her to get her calmed down,” Dan said.

“A TERRIBLE, TERRIBLE, TERRIBLE SITUATION.”

Dan and Susan started dating in junior high school and have been together for upwards of 55 years, married for 48.

“To see her going through this was horrendous to say the least,” Dan said. “I think I cried more in those first few weeks than I ever cried in my whole life.”

“It was a feeling of helplessness, watching your wife being put through what I call torture,” he added.

The situation took an emotional toll on Dan and the rest of his family. Dan said leaving the hospital every day was “disheartening,” and coming home to see all her quilts and artwork that they have on display in their house just made things even more difficult.

“It was the worst thing I ever went through in my entire life,” Dan said. “It was a terrible, terrible, terrible situation.”

HOSPITAL VISITS

Dan recalled the struggles and frustrations of trying to visit his wife in the hospital during this process.

At first, he was not allowed to visit her at all.

Once she was intubated, he was allowed to visit for just an hour before the nurses would ask him to leave because of hospital policy.

“It would just infuriate me,” Dan said, but understood the procedure.

“He’d drive two hours down, stay an hour and then have to go home,” Susan said.

Eventually, once Susan’s health started to improve, the hospital allowed Dan to visit for as long as he wanted.

Susan was kept in a negative-pressure room, meaning that none of the air from inside the room would come out. In order to visit with Susan, Dan had to get dressed up in all the protective equipment: a gown, two sets of gloves, a hat, a face mask and a face shield.

Once Susan completely fought off the virus, Dan only had to wear a face mask for visits.

SUSAN’S RECOVERY

The relief of being home could be seen in Susan’s eyes and heard in her voice.

“I’m so happy to be out of that room and into nature and into my home that I’m used to,” Susan said, mentioning her appreciation for the hospital staff.

“Once she lost her fever, you could see improvements day by day,” Dan said. “Since coming home, she’s made huge strides as far as walking, communicating, doing things on her own.”

But Dan said Susan still needs 24/7 care, at least for now.

“They’re saying she should make a full recovery,” Dan said. “I think the only doubt they have right now is her lung capacity and as to whether she’s going to need oxygen for the rest of her life.”

In addition to Susan’s physical recovery from COVID-19, she now has a significant mental battle to fight because of the stress and trauma caused by COVID-19 treatment.

“The first two or three nights (after getting home), I couldn’t watch anything (on TV) for more than two minutes,” Susan said. “I couldn’t do anything because I just kept going to the bad place. Then I got to the point where I said, ‘I’m not going to think about that anymore, I’m just going to stay at the good place.’ So that’s what I’ve been doing.”

Being hooked up to a ventilator for so long has had lasting effects on Susan, where she has trouble with anything getting close to her face. She can’t even wear a mask yet because she starts to feel claustrophobic.

Although her mental health has improved since coming home, sometimes just thinking about the treatment triggers some bad feelings, she said.

“That was almost as bad as all the other stuff,” Susan said of her on-going mental battle.

But even through all the mental and physical struggles:

“I’m very appreciative of being here,” Susan said.

“It’s a miracle,” Dan said.

nocera
Posts: 42110
Joined: Fri Mar 27, 2015 10:47 am
Location: He/Him

COVID-19

Postby nocera » Wed Sep 02, 2020 11:46 am

Source of the post Dan made the trip to Pittsburgh almost every day to see his wife, who was tied down to a hospital bed with a tube down her throat, all while still being conscious.

Susan had to be tied down to the hospital bed so she couldn’t take the tube out.
Jesus Christ that sounds awful.

Freddy Rumsen
Posts: 35313
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 11:50 am
Location: "Order is the only possibility of rest." -- Wendell Berry

COVID-19

Postby Freddy Rumsen » Wed Sep 02, 2020 11:54 am

More random stuff


dodint
Posts: 59385
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:39 pm
Location: Cheer up, bіtch!
Contact:

COVID-19

Postby dodint » Wed Sep 02, 2020 12:09 pm

Source of the post Dan made the trip to Pittsburgh almost every day to see his wife, who was tied down to a hospital bed with a tube down her throat, all while still being conscious.

Susan had to be tied down to the hospital bed so she couldn’t take the tube out.
Jesus Christ that sounds awful.
Yeah, but at least we have college football.

nocera
Posts: 42110
Joined: Fri Mar 27, 2015 10:47 am
Location: He/Him

COVID-19

Postby nocera » Wed Sep 02, 2020 12:11 pm

Was Susan's age listed in that article? What about her pre-existing conditions? Maybe she was one of those that would've been tied down to a hospital bed and intubated regardless of COVID.

Morkle
Posts: 23082
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:09 pm
Location: Pittsburgh

COVID-19

Postby Morkle » Wed Sep 02, 2020 12:12 pm

Was Susan's age listed in that article? What about her pre-existing conditions? Maybe she was one of those that would've been tied down to a hospital bed and intubated regardless of COVID.
Looks like they were married for 48 years or something like that. She had to of been older.

grunthy
Posts: 18239
Joined: Thu Mar 26, 2015 8:29 pm

COVID-19

Postby grunthy » Wed Sep 02, 2020 12:18 pm

I've heard it's in the 2-3 million range.
Lol. What?

The best guess IFR of this virus is around .3-.5%.
Which would indicate, based on the 190K reported deaths, that the US has had almost 48 million cases (over 14% of the population). So, maybe this IFR is not a reliable estimate.
Yes... the best guess IFR is using antibodies only...

PFiDC
Posts: 9248
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 2:23 pm

COVID-19

Postby PFiDC » Wed Sep 02, 2020 12:52 pm

Source of the post Dan made the trip to Pittsburgh almost every day to see his wife, who was tied down to a hospital bed with a tube down her throat, all while still being conscious.

Susan had to be tied down to the hospital bed so she couldn’t take the tube out.
Jesus Christ that sounds awful.
Yeah, but at least we have college football.
Thank God. Think of all the athletes that would have committed suicide or been left to a life of destitution.

MalkinIsMyHomeboy
Posts: 29482
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:45 pm
Location: “MIMH is almost always correct” -ulf

COVID-19

Postby MalkinIsMyHomeboy » Wed Sep 02, 2020 1:12 pm

COVID has done a really good job at exposing how **** stupid and lacking in critical thought the average american is

shoeshine boy
Posts: 5008
Joined: Wed Apr 22, 2015 4:53 pm

COVID-19

Postby shoeshine boy » Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:20 pm

COVID has done a really good job at exposing how **** stupid and lacking in critical thought the average american is
this is the statement with the most truth in this entire thread.

LITT
Posts: 7079
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 6:43 pm
Location: Those who don't listen will eventually be surrounded by people with nothing to say

COVID-19

Postby LITT » Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:21 pm

COVID has done a really good job at exposing how **** stupid and lacking in critical thought the average american is
ALL americans - not average. even very intelligent people have lost the ability to critically think -- GROUPTHINK

offsides
Posts: 2664
Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2015 10:26 am
Location: Washington, PA

COVID-19

Postby offsides » Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:30 pm

Good thing this forum is here for the smart thinking Americans. :D

DigitalGypsy66
Posts: 19760
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 7:33 pm
Location: Iodine State

COVID-19

Postby DigitalGypsy66 » Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:32 pm

Good thing this forum is here for the smart thinking Americans. :D
And one German, a Czech, and one Swede. :lol:

PFiDC
Posts: 9248
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 2:23 pm

COVID-19

Postby PFiDC » Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:14 pm

COVID has done a really good job at exposing how **** stupid and lacking in critical thought the average american is
this is the statement with the most truth in this entire thread.
My favorite way to say this is that America is a cum stained hotel room and COVID is the blacklight.

MrKennethTKangaroo
Posts: 12493
Joined: Sat Mar 28, 2015 3:50 pm

COVID-19

Postby MrKennethTKangaroo » Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:17 pm

A lot of good vibes right here

PFiDC
Posts: 9248
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 2:23 pm

COVID-19

Postby PFiDC » Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:20 pm

Well the crystals haven't worked to cure it yet so...

Shyster
Posts: 13158
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 6:08 pm
Location: Nullius in verba

COVID-19

Postby Shyster » Wed Sep 02, 2020 4:01 pm

A Supercomputer Analyzed Covid-19 — and an Interesting New Theory Has Emerged
https://elemental.medium.com/a-supercom ... cb8eba9d63

Interesting hypothesis about the effect of Covid-19 developed using the Summit supercomputer at Oak Ridge National Lab in Tennessee. The hypothesis is that Covid-19 can actually produce a bradykinin storm, which would explain many aspects of Covid-19, including the pneumonia and the mental issues.

MalkinIsMyHomeboy
Posts: 29482
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:45 pm
Location: “MIMH is almost always correct” -ulf

COVID-19

Postby MalkinIsMyHomeboy » Wed Sep 02, 2020 4:04 pm

what the **** is a bradykinin storm

nocera
Posts: 42110
Joined: Fri Mar 27, 2015 10:47 am
Location: He/Him

COVID-19

Postby nocera » Wed Sep 02, 2020 4:07 pm

Oooooh it's one of those bradykinin storms. I figured as much.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: faftorial, Google [Bot] and 148 guests