COVID-19

[MWB]

What is to say they will continue to fall? Things get eased again, and seems like they could rise again. Any predictions need to be taken with a huge grain of salt, as we’re just winging it at this point.

[offsides]

Not sure how or why, but NY seems to have it under control now. There world meter numbers are really nice the last few weeks.

[King Colby]

Well I’m not going to go back and try to find those studies.

We’re Nowhere Near Herd Immunity with COVID-19, Experts Say
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/ ... h-covid-19

One of the really good data guys I've been following who has been relatively accurate estimates the HIT (herd immunity threshold) to be 10-35%, calculated using 1 - 1/Rt. Early in the infection estimates were 60% due to an Rt of about 2.5, but that Rt is not as high now thanks to mitigation efforts (masks, behavioral changes). So even at an Rt of 1.5 (every 2 people that get sick infect 3 more), the HIT is 33%.

[Pavel Bure]

I don’t think you’re applying the properties of herd immunity correctly which is why I asked. It’s true that this would “go away” on its own, however the herd immunity argument accounting for a drop in rates IMO doesn’t hold water. That argument assumes an all or nothing infection possibility as well as Ignoring those practicing isolation, masking, and proper social distancing guidelines. While I’d love to say this has naturally run its course and is “fixing” itself that is simply not true.
.
Further, no one is claiming herd immunity in places that have contained the virus or greatly minimized its affects. It is only people in the US that seem to be trying to justify the utter failure our populace has caused. Herd immunity based on what Dr. Fauci has said is a LONG way off and if pursued without a vaccine would greatly accelerate the death rate.
.
I originally asked you to clearly define what you’re saying because it seems to be a misappropriation of herd immunity. Probably due to none of us being experts and all of us wanting to find the positives somewhere.

[grunthy]

What is to say they will continue to fall? Things get eased again, and seems like they could rise again. Any predictions need to be taken with a huge grain of salt, as we’re just winging it at this point.

You assume everyone would go completely back to normal. That won’t be the case.

[grunthy]

Not sure how or why, but NY seems to have it under control now. There world meter numbers are really nice the last few weeks.

My guess is it is because half their population in NYC has had the virus. So a lot less people to get sick.

[grunthy]

I don’t think you’re applying the properties of herd immunity correctly which is why I asked. It’s true that this would “go away” on its own, however the herd immunity argument accounting for a drop in rates IMO doesn’t hold water. That argument assumes an all or nothing infection possibility as well as Ignoring those practicing isolation, masking, and proper social distancing guidelines. While I’d love to say this has naturally run its course and is “fixing” itself that is simply not true.
.
Further, no one is claiming herd immunity in places that have contained the virus or greatly minimized its affects. It is only people in the US that seem to be trying to justify the utter failure our populace has caused. Herd immunity based on what Dr. Fauci has said is a LONG way off and if pursued without a vaccine would greatly accelerate the death rate.
.
I originally asked you to clearly define what you’re saying because it seems to be a misappropriation of herd immunity. Probably due to none of us being experts and all of us wanting to find the positives somewhere.

I’m sorry. I didn’t know posting a study from experts that say 15-25% herd immunity is possible was misappropriating herd immunity.

[MWB]

What is to say they will continue to fall? Things get eased again, and seems like they could rise again. Any predictions need to be taken with a huge grain of salt, as we’re just winging it at this point.

You assume everyone would go completely back to normal. That won’t be the case.

I’m basing that thought on what we’ve seen to this point.

[grunthy]

What is to say they will continue to fall? Things get eased again, and seems like they could rise again. Any predictions need to be taken with a huge grain of salt, as we’re just winging it at this point.

You assume everyone would go completely back to normal. That won’t be the case.

I’m basing that thought on what we’ve seen to this point.

Seems weird that you had Sweden, NY, NJ, FL, AZ, and etc all get between 15-25% infected based on AB testing and then case load starts falling. We know all these areas went with very different styles of reopening, shutdowns, lack of shutdowns, and etc. yet all started declining somewhere in that range.

[MWB]

But what will happen next? That’s my question. How much certainty can be placed on thinking the case load will continue to fall?

[grunthy]

But what will happen next? That’s my question. How much certainty can be placed on thinking the case load will continue to fall?

Watch Sweden. They will start turning colder before we do.

[MR25]

Is Sweden sending kids back to school yet?

An increase after that is almost inevitable.

[grunthy]

Is Sweden sending kids back to school yet?

An increase after that is almost inevitable.

Sweden never closed their schools.

[Shyster]

I might be wrong, but I don't think Sweden's equivalent of K-12 schools ever closed.

[DigitalGypsy66]

They did not close. I have a niece and nephews near Malmo.

[Freddy Rumsen]

I have heard Sweden never closed their schools.

[eddy]

Interesting read on symptoms

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/08/08/ ... -know-why/

[grunthy]

[eddy]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-k ... struction/

Nearly 100,000 children tested positive for the coronavirus in the last two weeks of July, a new report from the American Academy of Pediatrics finds

https://www.wsj.com/articles/latest-res ... 1596978001

Children might be more vulnerable to Covid-19 than once believed, with new research suggesting that they are able to contract and spread the virus, especially if they don’t take precautions such as wearing a mask.



I'm still keeping mine home.

[grunthy]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-k ... struction/

Nearly 100,000 children tested positive for the coronavirus in the last two weeks of July, a new report from the American Academy of Pediatrics finds

https://www.wsj.com/articles/latest-res ... 1596978001

Children might be more vulnerable to Covid-19 than once believed, with new research suggesting that they are able to contract and spread the virus, especially if they don’t take precautions such as wearing a mask.



I'm still keeping mine home.

You are allowed to, but studies from multiple countries have shown that kids are not major transmitters of the virus.

[eddy]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-k ... struction/

Nearly 100,000 children tested positive for the coronavirus in the last two weeks of July, a new report from the American Academy of Pediatrics finds

https://www.wsj.com/articles/latest-res ... 1596978001

Children might be more vulnerable to Covid-19 than once believed, with new research suggesting that they are able to contract and spread the virus, especially if they don’t take precautions such as wearing a mask.



I'm still keeping mine home.

You are allowed to, but studies from multiple countries have shown that kids are not major transmitters of the virus.

My problem is this country and kids. Specifically my town which is full of anti maskers/China virus is a hoax people. Basically they've made the decision to keep my kids home for me. My kids actually made that decision, but I completely agree with them.

[offsides]

Interesting read on symptoms

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/08/08/ ... -know-why/

Thanks Eddy, very informative.

[MWB]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-k ... struction/

Nearly 100,000 children tested positive for the coronavirus in the last two weeks of July, a new report from the American Academy of Pediatrics finds

https://www.wsj.com/articles/latest-res ... 1596978001

Children might be more vulnerable to Covid-19 than once believed, with new research suggesting that they are able to contract and spread the virus, especially if they don’t take precautions such as wearing a mask.



I'm still keeping mine home.

Why the seemingly differing results in the studies?

[grunthy]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-k ... struction/

Nearly 100,000 children tested positive for the coronavirus in the last two weeks of July, a new report from the American Academy of Pediatrics finds

https://www.wsj.com/articles/latest-res ... 1596978001

Children might be more vulnerable to Covid-19 than once believed, with new research suggesting that they are able to contract and spread the virus, especially if they don’t take precautions such as wearing a mask.



I'm still keeping mine home.

You are allowed to, but studies from multiple countries have shown that kids are not major transmitters of the virus.

My problem is this country and kids. Specifically my town which is full of anti maskers/China virus is a hoax people. Basically they've made the decision to keep my kids home for me. My kids actually made that decision, but I completely agree with them.

Iceland did a genetic sequencing study of the coronavirus and found no to very few cases of child to adult transmission.

[MWB]

Latest Research Points to Children Carrying, Transmitting Coronavirus
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.co ... 1596978001

Several studies and reports published in recent weeks found coronavirus infections among children of all ages at places ranging from schools to camps to homes. Other research suggested that kids, especially older ones, can be a driving force behind transmission. And some researchers found children carry high levels of Covid-19’s genetic material in their upper respiratory tract, which doesn’t mean they are transmitting the virus but that they potentially could.

Most of the studies have limitations, and more research is needed, experts say. Yet the new studies, together with reports of outbreaks among children at some schools overseas and a summer camp in Georgia, have persuaded many researchers that children aren’t as immune to Covid-19 as initially thought.

“Are they susceptible to catching the virus? Absolutely. Are they able to transmit the virus? Absolutely,” said Joelle Simpson, interim chief of emergency medicine at Children’s National Hospital in Washington, D.C.
...
Some schools in the U.S. can likely safely reopen, researchers say, but the new findings suggest the facilities should proceed carefully. And, they added, schools should wait until community transmission is under control. They also should take steps that can reduce the risks for students and staff, such as widespread masking and frequent cleaning, along with social distancing and good ventilation, experts recommend.

A number of schools overseas have reopened with little incident after taking stringent precautionary steps. Without such actions, researchers warn, schools reopening in the U.S. could experience outbreaks like those that hit facilities in Israel and France.

“Our schools are little mini microcosms of our cities that they’re in—what’s happening in cities is what’s going to happen in schools,” said Tina Hartert, a professor of medicine at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, who is leading a study, funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, exploring the infection rate in children and people they live with across nearly 2,000 households in the U.S.

“Until there is definitive data one way or the other, we have reason to believe from decades of data from other respiratory viruses that children are very good transmitters,” Dr. Hartert said. “There isn’t a lot of reason to believe that that wouldn’t be the case with this virus.”