COVID-19

[Troy Loney]

@nobody I am not trying to argue your ultimate conclusion here, I just don't think the method you are using to arrive at it is convincing.

[King Colby]

Daily reporting is so delayed that Pittsburgh likely won't see any results from the bar/restaurant closings until later in the month, longer than the expected 2 weeks. Today's reporting includes test results from June 24 through July 9. Certainly makes it more difficult to make mitigation decisions.

To be fair, I'm sure there are only a few trickles from as far back as 6/24 and reporting is substantially complete for those days.

I would imagine by 7/24 (end of current order) there would be sufficient data available up through at least 7/17 to make a decision on next steps

[MR25]

[pens9192]

lol..at least they are being honest. Facebook was bad before all this, but now its 10 times worse

[nocera]

Daily reporting is so delayed that Pittsburgh likely won't see any results from the bar/restaurant closings until later in the month, longer than the expected 2 weeks. Today's reporting includes test results from June 24 through July 9. Certainly makes it more difficult to make mitigation decisions.

To be fair, I'm sure there are only a few trickles from as far back as 6/24 and reporting is substantially complete for those days.

I would imagine by 7/24 (end of current order) there would be sufficient data available up through at least 7/17 to make a decision on next steps

Yeah they only include the range, not how many were on each date. So, hopefully you're right and they're able to make accurate decisions based on the data. There's always been a range for each day's reporting, I just don't recall ever seeing it be 16 days.

[eddy]

So when schools reopen and a kid gets diagnosed with the virus. What happens? How many days would have already passed where it would have spread? Do you close the school and clean? Do you close just the rooms he is in and send those in the classroom home? How the hell is any of this going to be manageable when it a kid does show up with it?

[pens9192]

Increasingly, research is starting to coalesce around an unfortunate picture of COVID-19 immunity: People who develop antibodies might not keep them for very long.

Last month, a study showed that antibodies may last only two to three months. Then research published Monday suggested that antibodies could last only three to five weeks in some patients.

https://news.yahoo.com/research-coalesc ... 00542.html

Maybe this will be a yearly vaccine like the flu

[grunthy]

Considering the lag for deaths being reported to the CDC, it's hard to consider that figure as an indicator.

Over 90% of deaths are reported to cdc after 3 weeks, above 97% after 5 weeks. That is why I said 2 weeks.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

Based on the week to week updates that take place on this graph, I don't believe that 90/97 applies. They are adding thousands week over week well farther than 5 weeks back. I would guess that those percentages are based on historical norms and averages that aren't applicable in the current outlier event.

And you can also see that they are over 16K behind on just confirmed COVID fatalities.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

No that is based on their current lag time this covid season.

[offsides]

Increasingly, research is starting to coalesce around an unfortunate picture of COVID-19 immunity: People who develop antibodies might not keep them for very long.

Last month, a study showed that antibodies may last only two to three months. Then research published Monday suggested that antibodies could last only three to five weeks in some patients.

https://news.yahoo.com/research-coalesc ... 00542.html

Maybe this will be a yearly vaccine like the flu

Hopefully more effective than the regular flu vaccine. The last few years have only been in the 40 to 50 percent range. Guess it is better than nothing.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/e ... tudies.htm

[MR25]

Because there are multiple strains of flu and the vaccine they put out each year may or may not work against the current strain.

COVID would/should be different.

[CBear3]

So when schools reopen and a kid gets diagnosed with the virus. What happens? How many days would have already passed where it would have spread? Do you close the school and clean? Do you close just the rooms he is in and send those in the classroom home? How the hell is any of this going to be manageable when it a kid does show up with it?

Yeah, this is troubling.
I mentioned our school giving the choice of in-person or distance learning. Our neighborhood Facebook group had a poll, and its 30-1 in favor of in person schooling.

Also, we just had one of the girls on my kids' volleyball team test positive. She was exposed last weekend, and luckily we didn't practice or have a game so we're all in the clear. She's not showing symptoms luckily.

[grunthy]

Increasingly, research is starting to coalesce around an unfortunate picture of COVID-19 immunity: People who develop antibodies might not keep them for very long.

Last month, a study showed that antibodies may last only two to three months. Then research published Monday suggested that antibodies could last only three to five weeks in some patients.

https://news.yahoo.com/research-coalesc ... 00542.html

Maybe this will be a yearly vaccine like the flu

Hopefully more effective than the regular flu vaccine. The last few years have only been in the 40 to 50 percent range. Guess it is better than nothing.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/e ... tudies.htm

That is because of multiple strains. It might have guessed two strains right but missed the mark on the other two strains.

[offsides]

That is because of multiple strains. It might have guessed two strains right but missed the mark on the other two strains.

So it should be much more effective as long as people actually get the vaccine yearly. Not sure the percentage but I don't think a lot of people actually get a flu shot now.

[eddy]

So when schools reopen and a kid gets diagnosed with the virus. What happens? How many days would have already passed where it would have spread? Do you close the school and clean? Do you close just the rooms he is in and send those in the classroom home? How the hell is any of this going to be manageable when it a kid does show up with it?

Yeah, this is troubling.
I mentioned our school giving the choice of in-person or distance learning. Our neighborhood Facebook group had a poll, and its 30-1 in favor of in person schooling.

Also, we just had one of the girls on my kids' volleyball team test positive. She was exposed last weekend, and luckily we didn't practice or have a game so we're all in the clear. She's not showing symptoms luckily.

I understand the difficulties and reasoning of parents who work and wanting to their kids back in school, but at the same time, I want written on black and white, what's going to happen when one tests positive. All I hear about is open or else and then dodinting in response to that, but I haven't been able to find a reasonable explanation of what's going to happen when someone does test positive.

[King Colby]

I think what is hardest on me through all of this is "where does this end". My brain has a hard time with things of an indefinite nature.

So your Friday afternoon assignment is to pontificate on that please and thank you

[eddy]

I think what is hardest on me through all of this is "where does this end". My brain has a hard time with things of an indefinite nature.

So your Friday afternoon assignment is to pontificate on that please and thank you

Vaccine?

[King Colby]

I think what is hardest on me through all of this is "where does this end". My brain has a hard time with things of an indefinite nature.

So your Friday afternoon assignment is to pontificate on that please and thank you

Vaccine?

And what about between now and then (maybe a year?)

[grunthy]

That is because of multiple strains. It might have guessed two strains right but missed the mark on the other two strains.

So it should be much more effective as long as people actually get the vaccine yearly. Not sure the percentage but I don't think a lot of people actually get a flu shot now.

Between 40-50% get the flu shot a year.

[grunthy]

I think what is hardest on me through all of this is "where does this end". My brain has a hard time with things of an indefinite nature.

So your Friday afternoon assignment is to pontificate on that please and thank you

Vaccine?

And what about between now and then (maybe a year?)

It might come out this fall or winter.

If it doesn’t at all, things will just have to go back to “normal” and we live with it.

[eddy]

I think what is hardest on me through all of this is "where does this end". My brain has a hard time with things of an indefinite nature.

So your Friday afternoon assignment is to pontificate on that please and thank you

Vaccine?

And what about between now and then (maybe a year?)

Do what we were doing at the beginning. Shut it down. Unfortunately this country is full of so many pieces of **** that can't even wear a mask, so in the end, it doesn't really matter because murica will do what they want.

[skullman80]

I think what is hardest on me through all of this is "where does this end". My brain has a hard time with things of an indefinite nature.

So your Friday afternoon assignment is to pontificate on that please and thank you

Vaccine?

And what about between now and then (maybe a year?)

It might come out this fall or winter.

If it doesn’t at all, things will just have to go back to “normal” and we live with it.

I think everyone would love a vaccine this fall/winter, but I think that's pretty unlikely. Based on what I have read early next year is probably the earliest a vaccine is coming even with the huge push. I think that's on the optimistic side. I'd love to be wrong.

I also don't think going back to "normal" and just living with it is an option either. Unless normal is walking around with masks on and social distancing etc.

[Troy Loney]

Do what we were doing at the beginning. Shut it down. Unfortunately this country is full of so many pieces of **** that can't even wear a mask, so in the end, it doesn't really matter because murica will do what they want.

I don't think we are very far from states imposing border and travel restrictions. Just a fact of life, basically every state that didn't get crushed at the onset prioritized commerce over strangling the virus (to different degrees). Not sure the states with completely out of control spread have any mitigation options at their disposal aside from lockdown, and that's not happening.

[Freddy Rumsen]

So when schools reopen and a kid gets diagnosed with the virus. What happens? How many days would have already passed where it would have spread? Do you close the school and clean? Do you close just the rooms he is in and send those in the classroom home? How the hell is any of this going to be manageable when it a kid does show up with it?

Yeah, this is troubling.
I mentioned our school giving the choice of in-person or distance learning. Our neighborhood Facebook group had a poll, and its 30-1 in favor of in person schooling.

Also, we just had one of the girls on my kids' volleyball team test positive. She was exposed last weekend, and luckily we didn't practice or have a game so we're all in the clear. She's not showing symptoms luckily.

This again goes back to the fact online schooling works fine for middle class kids in two-parent homes.

We're basically consigning poor rural and urban kids to no education until Covid is over if we can't have in person schooling until there are no positive tests.

[King Colby]

So far I have one vote for team shut it down and tank the economy until there's a vaccine, and one vote for team **** it and let everyone die.

So far so good.

[PFiDC]

I vote shut it down and let everyone die. Gotta be an option C.