COVID-19

[eddy]

I have a friend who is 10 days into this in my town and she has taken very safe precautions with a mask and not going anywhere unless needed. It's terrifying hearing her stories of even trying to make it up the stairs. It's really weird reading about people arguing about stats when this happens so close to home like this, really puts things in perspective.

[grunthy]

"The administration is forcing schools to open"

Everything must stay political.

Are we just glossing over the fact that national testing is 5x what it was and positive result rate has halved? The "herd immunity" claim is a stupid one unless you only use raw case numbers to formulate your opinions.

between March and July there were no attempts to set standards or guidance for contact tracing and aggressive mitigation.

Thats weird. I dont know how they were able to trace cases back to bars in this area then

I agree with a lot of what you said, and while the Captain of the ship may be a buffoon most of the official fedgov actions have been well intentioned. There's one caveat though: positive result rate has halved

It's half of what it was when we were rationing tests for only the worst cases that were in need of hospitalization. Now if you've got allergies you can go get tested. Kudos to increased testing to allow that, but it also means the positivity rate should decrease as people with milder symptoms (which could be from another ailment) now have access to the tests.

I think what you are saying is that if testing was 5x higher in April, cases would not have been 5x higher and thus the positivity rate would not have been as high as it was. That i will agree with.

We can put it in perspective with the WHO’s just released mortality rate of .6%.

At peak we were losing about 2,700 people a day. So total infected per day at peak would have been around 450k We are averaging around 550 per worldometers now, which would be 100k infected per day.

[Troy Loney]

I don't get it, cases would have been higher where? The NE?

Is the contention that what's going on now in FL, CA, AZ and TX is not an uncontained spread in those states? That what's happening now is not a demonstrable change from what they experienced in the Spring?

That it's "stupid" to imply that the limited mitigation efforts default to a herd immunity approach.

All I am seeing is applying the methods employed by states that have effectively curbed the spread, and implying that those states that opened aggressively are doing the same things. If I am wrong, explain.

[King Colby]

Significantly higher but not proportionately I'm sure.

[grunthy]

I don't get it, cases would have been higher where? The NE?

Is the contention that what's going on now in FL, CA, AZ and TX is not an uncontained spread in those states? That what's happening now is not a demonstrable change from what they experienced in the Spring?

That it's "stupid" to imply that the limited mitigation efforts default to a herd immunity approach.

All I am seeing is applying the methods employed by states that have effectively curbed the spread, and implying that those states that opened aggressively are doing the same things. If I am wrong, explain.

The contention that the USA is worse off now than in april is false. Could we start having more infections than April? Sure, but right now we are almost 4 times less than we were in spring.

Or the mortality rate has plunged and we are having the same amount of cases but over 4 times less deaths. Either way we are not worse off.

[Troy Loney]

I still don't get that. What is "we" doing here? NYC is clearly better off, AZ, CA, TX, etc are clearly worse off? We just calling it a wash, admiring that effective treatments are being used, and poo-pooiing alarmists?

[grunthy]

I still don't get that. What is "we" doing here? NYC is clearly better off, AZ, CA, TX, etc are clearly worse off? We just calling it a wash, admiring that effective treatments are being used, and poo-pooiing alarmists?

Sure they are doing worse than they were in april. But NY was losing almost 900 a day at peak, now those states might not have peaked yet. They are losing about 270 combined a day per worldometers (not per actual days of death). Again worse off, but all three combined don't even get to NY's worst.

[CBear3]

I don't get it, cases would have been higher where? The NE?

Is the contention that what's going on now in FL, CA, AZ and TX is not an uncontained spread in those states? That what's happening now is not a demonstrable change from what they experienced in the Spring?

That it's "stupid" to imply that the limited mitigation efforts default to a herd immunity approach.

All I am seeing is applying the methods employed by states that have effectively curbed the spread, and implying that those states that opened aggressively are doing the same things. If I am wrong, explain.

The contention that the USA is worse off now than in april is false. Could we start having more infections than April? Sure, but right now we are almost 4 times less than we were in spring.

Or the mortality rate has plunged and we are having the same amount of cases but over 4 times less deaths. Either way we are not worse off.

And I'd agree that we're better off, but (and this is nitpicky stat geek time) remember that deaths trail infections by up to two weeks. So if there is an increasing trend you're up two weeks behind if you simply base it off the death rate. It'd be safer to say that two weeks ago we were at 1/4 of the predicted cases. We've seen nearly a 50% increase in cases in the last two weeks, with only a 18% increase in testing, so that may indicate that today we're closer to 35% of the April high water mark. Again, that's just stat geek fun, your underlying point is valid.

Troy's also right that in states that weren't greatly effected by the first wave are worse off today than they were in April. They're also not taking any of the stringent measures the states in the first wave did. Whether that's because of a conscious decision to pursue herd immunity or the steadfast belief in individual freedom/responsibility or another matter could be debated.

[grunthy]

I don't get it, cases would have been higher where? The NE?

Is the contention that what's going on now in FL, CA, AZ and TX is not an uncontained spread in those states? That what's happening now is not a demonstrable change from what they experienced in the Spring?

That it's "stupid" to imply that the limited mitigation efforts default to a herd immunity approach.

All I am seeing is applying the methods employed by states that have effectively curbed the spread, and implying that those states that opened aggressively are doing the same things. If I am wrong, explain.

The contention that the USA is worse off now than in april is false. Could we start having more infections than April? Sure, but right now we are almost 4 times less than we were in spring.

Or the mortality rate has plunged and we are having the same amount of cases but over 4 times less deaths. Either way we are not worse off.

And I'd agree that we're better off, but (and this is nitpicky stat geek time) remember that deaths trail infections by up to two weeks. So if there is an increasing trend you're up two weeks behind if you simply base it off the death rate. It'd be safer to say that two weeks ago we were at 1/4 of the predicted cases. We've seen nearly a 50% increase in cases in the last two weeks, with only a 18% increase in testing, so that may indicate that today we're closer to 35% of the April high water mark. Again, that's just stat geek fun, your underlying point is valid.

Troy's also right that in states that weren't greatly effected by the first wave are worse off today than they were in April. They're also not taking any of the stringent measures the states in the first wave did. Whether that's because of a conscious decision to pursue herd immunity or the steadfast belief in individual freedom/responsibility or another matter could be debated.

I am curious to see as a stat person the CDC all cause death charts in two weeks. If current trends hold the US will start trending thousands below average a week.

[MWB]

I still don't get that. What is "we" doing here? NYC is clearly better off, AZ, CA, TX, etc are clearly worse off? We just calling it a wash, admiring that effective treatments are being used, and poo-pooiing alarmists?

Sure they are doing worse than they were in april. But NY was losing almost 900 a day at peak, now those states might not have peaked yet. They are losing about 270 combined a day per worldometers (not per actual days of death). Again worse off, but all three combined don't even get to NY's worst.

I don’t think the goal should be to just do better than the worst. It should be to learn from the mistakes of the worst and the world around you to improve.

[grunthy]

I still don't get that. What is "we" doing here? NYC is clearly better off, AZ, CA, TX, etc are clearly worse off? We just calling it a wash, admiring that effective treatments are being used, and poo-pooiing alarmists?

Sure they are doing worse than they were in april. But NY was losing almost 900 a day at peak, now those states might not have peaked yet. They are losing about 270 combined a day per worldometers (not per actual days of death). Again worse off, but all three combined don't even get to NY's worst.

I don’t think the goal should be to just do better than the worst. It should be to learn from the mistakes of the worst and the world around you to improve.

I didn't say it was a good goal. I am just putting things into perspective.

[MWB]

I’m not understanding the relevance of all cause deaths as it relates to Covid deaths.

[grunthy]

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7313480/

Baricitinib is showing amazing promise. Not an RCT, but Eli Lilly is completing one right now. But this drug in some trials is showing almost a cure like affect. The RCT should be completed this month I believe to give us a definitive answer.

[King Colby]

I’m not understanding the relevance of all cause deaths as it relates to Covid deaths.

I dont get this either.

[mikey]

Basketball hoops re-installed at the park closest to my place...when I walked by last night, there were a bunch of folks playing a game, no masks...

Line out the door at Morgan's Pier - an outdoor establishment, but one that doesn't have a ton of room...

[grunthy]

I’m not understanding the relevance of all cause deaths as it relates to Covid deaths.

If you normally have 40k deaths per month then have 60k, 50k, 40k, 30k, 30k and so on, you could make the assumption that possibly something accelerated the people's deaths that were more than likely to die in the next couple of months anyway.

[King Colby]

Got it. I mean that makes sense from the perspective of nursing homes considering the average stay for people that die there is something like 13 months.

[CBear3]

I’m not understanding the relevance of all cause deaths as it relates to Covid deaths.

If you normally have 40k deaths per month then have 60k, 50k, 40k, 30k, 30k and so on, you could make the assumption that possibly something accelerated the people's deaths that were more than likely to die in the next couple of months anyway.

That's definitely fun with statistics.
I don't like the "expected death" totals because it doesn't take into account the myriad of cultural/behavioral differences occurring. But it's certainly a fun way to analyze statistics. On the other hand, deaths from various other means have increased without much of a solid reason too.

For instance, KC has seen something like a 35% increase in traffic fatalities this year, despite spending two months on lock down, with 75% of them being due to impairment. I don't know how to reconcile that. For two months we had less people out drinking at a bar and having to drive home, but we have still seen an increase. At least on the surface that's counter-intuitive.

[Troy Loney]

Considering the lag for deaths being reported to the CDC, it's hard to consider that figure as an indicator.

[count2infinity]

A girl I went to high school with, who had a baby at 16 just posted on Facebook about how masks don't provide protection...

[Morkle]

Honestly, I think I'm very tired of Facebook.

[Gaucho]

heh

[grunthy]

Considering the lag for deaths being reported to the CDC, it's hard to consider that figure as an indicator.

Over 90% of deaths are reported to cdc after 3 weeks, above 97% after 5 weeks. That is why I said 2 weeks.

[Troy Loney]

Considering the lag for deaths being reported to the CDC, it's hard to consider that figure as an indicator.

Over 90% of deaths are reported to cdc after 3 weeks, above 97% after 5 weeks. That is why I said 2 weeks.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

Based on the week to week updates that take place on this graph, I don't believe that 90/97 applies. They are adding thousands week over week well farther than 5 weeks back. I would guess that those percentages are based on historical norms and averages that aren't applicable in the current outlier event.

And you can also see that they are over 16K behind on just confirmed COVID fatalities.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

[nocera]

Daily reporting is so delayed that Pittsburgh likely won't see any results from the bar/restaurant closings until later in the month, longer than the expected 2 weeks. Today's reporting includes test results from June 24 through July 9. Certainly makes it more difficult to make mitigation decisions.