COVID-19

grunthy
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Postby grunthy » Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:01 pm



Was hoping that deaths would continue to stay down somehow—treatment improvements and the possibility of reduced lethality—but they’re officially back up again on a 7-day Rolling a average. With big states like CA, FL, TX still seeing cases through the roof this does not look good. It seems unlikely we’re going to get those states under control.
His week has more to do with a 4 day holiday week and LA and another couple counties not reporting for days until this week. Most weeks we were dropping 5% or so. Last week we dropped almost 30%. I would look to next week to see if it is truly and increase.
I find it hard to believe that the hospitalization rates described in the graph next to deaths don’t reflect the beginning of an uptick in deaths. Moreover, that’s a rolling average above smoothing out the delay in reporting that you see one day to the next. Taking the 4,5,6 off and dumping deaths into the 7,8,9 doesn’t really make much of a difference for a rolling 7-Day average.

To me it’s no Longer will they rise but how high they rise. Plateau at late May early June? Or, match or surpass the worst days in April and early May. Best case is hope for the former suppose.
I believe this will quickly morph into a discussion about the fatality rate. And I don’t think Florida reports hospitalizations, I’m not sure how that site accounts for that.

The sheer volume of cases is bad, and really the only out here is for enough people to make good decisions on their own.
Florida does report hospital stats.

Also. NJ has reported almost 300 deaths this week so far.

They are averaging less than 10 a day now.

slappybrown
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Postby slappybrown » Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:11 pm

https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/v ... %3Aembed=y

Their ICu bed availability state wide when I’ve periodically looked at it has been between 20-25% in the last month. This is 14% availability which is the lowest I’ve seen so far

AuthorTony
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Postby AuthorTony » Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:35 pm

The Somerset school district polled parents about returning to school and whether masks should be worn in school.

82.7% of parents want their kids in school, no cyber schooling.
75% of parents don't want their kids wearing masks.

Somehow I'm not surprised.

nocera
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Postby nocera » Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:44 pm

:face:

MWB
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Postby MWB » Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:45 pm

The Somerset school district polled parents about returning to school and whether masks should be worn in school.

82.7% of parents want their kids in school, no cyber schooling.
75% of parents don't want their kids wearing masks.

Somehow I'm not surprised.
Wow, that is huge, I think here it would be flipped, but not positive.

offsides
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Postby offsides » Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:47 pm

So does majority rule in this case?

PFiDC
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Postby PFiDC » Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:04 am

Science should rule.

NTP66
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Postby NTP66 » Fri Jul 10, 2020 7:15 am

75% of Somerset doesn’t know what 75% means.

Troy Loney
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Postby Troy Loney » Fri Jul 10, 2020 7:16 am

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-herd- ... ce=twitter

I believe that this is a bad strategy.

King Colby
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Postby King Colby » Fri Jul 10, 2020 7:39 am

So were posting political opinion pieces in here now?

Troy Loney
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Postby Troy Loney » Fri Jul 10, 2020 7:41 am

So were posting political opinion pieces in here now?
Umm, what is opinion in that?

King Colby
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Postby King Colby » Fri Jul 10, 2020 7:52 am

Thats a classic goal post shifting article.

March: let's shut down so we can get this under control, increase testing, and have a way to more smartly do the mitigation dance as we reopen

July: cases start increasing, states target the likeliest transmission locations and modify and/or cease operations in those locations

"Omg were not doing anything to stop this and were now team herd immunity, im writing this in an article that provides no data and cites no sources"

MR25
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Postby MR25 » Fri Jul 10, 2020 8:14 am

The administration is about to force all schools to open in the fall. If herd immunity isn't the goal then I'm not sure what else is.

The other thing missing from your timeline is that between March and July there were no attempts to set standards or guidance for contact tracing and aggressive mitigation. All we heard was "this will just go away". Other countries, meanwhile, set up contact tracing and were able to successfully quarantine those who came into contact with sick people.

Guess what, it's not going away, and more people are going to die than what should have happened, because we're so far up our own ass with "muh freedoms" that no one seems to take other people into account.

NTP66
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Postby NTP66 » Fri Jul 10, 2020 8:22 am

^ :thumb:

Troy Loney
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Postby Troy Loney » Fri Jul 10, 2020 8:23 am

Thats a classic goal post shifting article.

March: let's shut down so we can get this under control, increase testing, and have a way to more smartly do the mitigation dance as we reopen

July: cases start increasing, states target the likeliest transmission locations and modify and/or cease operations in those locations

"Omg were not doing anything to stop this and were now team herd immunity, im writing this in an article that provides no data and cites no sources"
Not sure how to respond to this. Sure, that tactic you are describing for July is effective where the spread is growing but manageable (see Pittsburgh), but you cannot possibly refer to what's going on in the south and southwest as mitigation. So yeah, if you take issue with the notion that the US is effectively defaulting to a herd immunity approach because it doesn't apply to the whole country, sure. Not sure I see that contention as an adequate justification for prompting a testy exchange.

grunthy
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Postby grunthy » Fri Jul 10, 2020 8:41 am

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-herd- ... ce=twitter

I believe that this is a bad strategy.


Image


That is a chart of Sweden’s all cause deaths. Doesn’t look much different this year.

King Colby
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Postby King Colby » Fri Jul 10, 2020 8:42 am

"The administration is forcing schools to open"

Everything must stay political.

Are we just glossing over the fact that national testing is 5x what it was and positive result rate has halved? The "herd immunity" claim is a stupid one unless you only use raw case numbers to formulate your opinions.
between March and July there were no attempts to set standards or guidance for contact tracing and aggressive mitigation.
Thats weird. I dont know how they were able to trace cases back to bars in this area then

grunthy
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Postby grunthy » Fri Jul 10, 2020 8:48 am

Image

It doesn’t look much different when comparing to neighbors who “did more.”

CBear3
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Postby CBear3 » Fri Jul 10, 2020 8:54 am

"The administration is forcing schools to open"

Everything must stay political.

Are we just glossing over the fact that national testing is 5x what it was and positive result rate has halved? The "herd immunity" claim is a stupid one unless you only use raw case numbers to formulate your opinions.
between March and July there were no attempts to set standards or guidance for contact tracing and aggressive mitigation.
Thats weird. I dont know how they were able to trace cases back to bars in this area then
I agree with a lot of what you said, and while the Captain of the ship may be a buffoon most of the official fedgov actions have been well intentioned. There's one caveat though: positive result rate has halved

It's half of what it was when we were rationing tests for only the worst cases that were in need of hospitalization. Now if you've got allergies you can go get tested. Kudos to increased testing to allow that, but it also means the positivity rate should decrease as people with milder symptoms (which could be from another ailment) now have access to the tests.

Gaucho
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Postby Gaucho » Fri Jul 10, 2020 8:56 am

Sweden's per capita deah rate is 5 to 10 times higher than that of its neighbors.

grunthy
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Postby grunthy » Fri Jul 10, 2020 8:59 am

Sweden's per capita deah rate is 5 to 10 times higher than that of its neighbors.
For Covid? Sure. But not all cause deaths. They are still basically the same per capita death rate of its neighbors.

Gaucho
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Postby Gaucho » Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:02 am

Sweden's per capita deah rate is 5 to 10 times higher than that of its neighbors.
For Covid? Sure. But not all cause deaths. They are still basically the same per capita death rate of its neighbors.
Yes, for covid. Sorry for the ambiguity.

King Colby
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Postby King Colby » Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:04 am

"The administration is forcing schools to open"

Everything must stay political.

Are we just glossing over the fact that national testing is 5x what it was and positive result rate has halved? The "herd immunity" claim is a stupid one unless you only use raw case numbers to formulate your opinions.
between March and July there were no attempts to set standards or guidance for contact tracing and aggressive mitigation.
Thats weird. I dont know how they were able to trace cases back to bars in this area then
I agree with a lot of what you said, and while the Captain of the ship may be a buffoon most of the official fedgov actions have been well intentioned. There's one caveat though: positive result rate has halved

It's half of what it was when we were rationing tests for only the worst cases that were in need of hospitalization. Now if you've got allergies you can go get tested. Kudos to increased testing to allow that, but it also means the positivity rate should decrease as people with milder symptoms (which could be from another ailment) now have access to the tests.
I think what you are saying is that if testing was 5x higher in April, cases would not have been 5x higher and thus the positivity rate would not have been as high as it was. That i will agree with.

grunthy
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Postby grunthy » Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:05 am

Sweden's per capita deah rate is 5 to 10 times higher than that of its neighbors.
For Covid? Sure. But not all cause deaths. They are still basically the same per capita death rate of its neighbors.
Yes, for covid. Sorry for the ambiguity.
Some of the difference Could be that Sweden has less strict coding of covid deaths than their neighbors. I know some countries on code it as covid if you died from it, not with it.

grunthy
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Postby grunthy » Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:14 am

"The administration is forcing schools to open"

Everything must stay political.

Are we just glossing over the fact that national testing is 5x what it was and positive result rate has halved? The "herd immunity" claim is a stupid one unless you only use raw case numbers to formulate your opinions.
between March and July there were no attempts to set standards or guidance for contact tracing and aggressive mitigation.
Thats weird. I dont know how they were able to trace cases back to bars in this area then
I agree with a lot of what you said, and while the Captain of the ship may be a buffoon most of the official fedgov actions have been well intentioned. There's one caveat though: positive result rate has halved

It's half of what it was when we were rationing tests for only the worst cases that were in need of hospitalization. Now if you've got allergies you can go get tested. Kudos to increased testing to allow that, but it also means the positivity rate should decrease as people with milder symptoms (which could be from another ailment) now have access to the tests.
I think what you are saying is that if testing was 5x higher in April, cases would not have been 5x higher and thus the positivity rate would not have been as high as it was. That i will agree with.
It would have been a bunch higher. We were literally only testing deathly ill people, and obviously a vast majority of cases don’t get deathly ill.

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