COVID-19

[MR25]

And hospitalizations are a lagging indicator.

[mikey]

Stat war!

[eddy]

I see Arkansas has more cases with less testing, that's a good sign, right?

[Troy Loney]

https://www.propublica.org/article/a-sp ... n-reported

In Houston, one of the nation’s fastest-growing coronavirus hot spots, more residents are dying before they can make it to a hospital. Medical examiner data shows that an increasing number of these deaths are the result of COVID-19.

[meow]

Have you ever tried to drive in Houston? It's faster to walk backwards fighting a midget than it is to drive anywhere

[count2infinity]

Have you ever tried to drive in Houston? It's faster to walk backwards fighting a midget than it is to drive anywhere

I dunno. I was there last fall and holy hell... people drive like absolute maniacs. I don't recall sitting in traffic too much, but maybe I was in the right spots at the right time.

[Troy Loney]

Have you ever tried to drive in Houston? It's faster to walk backwards fighting a midget than it is to drive anywhere

No, but I am not trying to get into under/over count debate. I do see how posting that would indicate otherwise.

I think the data is messy, and (not just here) people point directly at the fatality count as a means to dispute heightened concerns related to recent case spikes.

My take, it was bad to open up in those states before getting a handle on how to manage subsequent outbreaks.

[eddy]

[count2infinity]

There are spikes and outbreaks happening in various locations in the US... spikes and outbreaks aren't good. I think we can all agree on that, yes?

[grunthy]

And hospitalizations are a lagging indicator.

Not a 3 week lag. They have had 3k cases for 3 weeks and hospital usage has fluctuated between 83-86%.

[MrKennethTKangaroo]

seems like new cases are flattening in Allegheny county, which is a plus.

[King Colby]

Positive test rate was 11.5٪ today which is a point or two higher than it has been i think

[Troy Loney]

seems like new cases are flattening in Allegheny county, which is a plus.

Two factors I think. Do we know the lag between being tested and reported cases? Seems like it is at least a handful of days, take that with the basis of the tests, how long between the positive test and telling the people that they might be exposed?

So we closed down like 10 days ago? This spike might not yet reflect the extent of the spread from reopening

[grunthy]

WHO calculates IFR at .6%.

[grunthy]

seems like new cases are flattening in Allegheny county, which is a plus.

Two factors I think. Do we know the lag between being tested and reported cases? Seems like it is at least a handful of days, take that with the basis of the tests, how long between the positive test and telling the people that they might be exposed?

So we closed down like 10 days ago? This spike might not yet reflect the extent of the spread from reopening

Lockdowns wouldn't show up for another week or more. If you start flattening now its not because of the lockdown.

[offsides]

Why is PA still so bad at testing? There are only 3 states (Oregon, Colorado and Idaho) with lower test per million. Must be some excuse.

[tifosi77]

Have you ever tried to drive in Houston? It's faster to walk backwards fighting a midget than it is to drive anywhere

This is such a rich mental image.....

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

There are spikes and outbreaks happening in various locations in the US... spikes and outbreaks aren't good. I think we can all agree on that, yes?

Thomas Robert Malthus disagrees

[Troy Loney]

Why is PA still so bad at testing? There are only 3 states (Oregon, Colorado and Idaho) with lower test per million. Must be some excuse.

Test turnaround time, or contract tracing timing are more effective indications. There's no reason to get tested if you haven't been exposed or aren't sick. It's not like anyone is going door-to-door testing people.

[offsides]

Why is PA still so bad at testing? There are only 3 states (Oregon, Colorado and Idaho) with lower test per million. Must be some excuse.

Test turnaround time, or contract tracing timing are more effective indications. There's no reason to get tested if you haven't been exposed or aren't sick. It's not like anyone is going door-to-door testing people.

So, lower tests means we are in good shape. We have less sick people than almost anyone else. Guess we are doing things right.

[grunthy]

Why is PA still so bad at testing? There are only 3 states (Oregon, Colorado and Idaho) with lower test per million. Must be some excuse.

Test turnaround time, or contract tracing timing are more effective indications. There's no reason to get tested if you haven't been exposed or aren't sick. It's not like anyone is going door-to-door testing people.

Are PA employers testing people or requiring testing before returning to office? I know several places in OK that are temperature checking and requiring people to get tested.

[meow]

There is a growing thought process going on that the more populated states that are seeing lower testing numbers (PA, CO, OR as offsides listed) is because if a single family member tests positive, the rest of the household acts as if they have it, but do not get tested. There is a pretty strong correlation between the higher population states that did a good job social distancing seeing lower testing numbers. This could be a reason why.

[Troy Loney]

Why is PA still so bad at testing? There are only 3 states (Oregon, Colorado and Idaho) with lower test per million. Must be some excuse.

Test turnaround time, or contract tracing timing are more effective indications. There's no reason to get tested if you haven't been exposed or aren't sick. It's not like anyone is going door-to-door testing people.

So, lower tests means we are in good shape. We have less sick people than almost anyone else. Guess we are doing things right.

I'm not saying that either. Just that you can't draw any conclusion from that single data point, I have no idea how PA is doing with contact tracing or test turnaround time, or any other parameter that would indicate whether or not the virus has spread out of control.

[Troy Loney]

[
Are PA employers testing people or requiring testing before returning to office? I know several places in OK that are temperature checking and requiring people to get tested.

Definitely not requiring it, but I couldn't say at what level companies with public facing employees or those with people in the office are testing.

[grunthy]

There is a growing thought process going on that the more populated states that are seeing lower testing numbers (PA, CO, OR as offsides listed) is because if a single family member tests positive, the rest of the household acts as if they have it, but do not get tested. There is a pretty strong correlation between the higher population states that did a good job social distancing seeing lower testing numbers. This could be a reason why.

We know a bunch of people like this. One family had a member test positive then, three of the remaining four started having symptoms. They didn't get tested but most likely had it.