COVID-19

[Freddy Rumsen]

[mac5155]

Statistics, man.

[Shyster]

Now is not the time to be like, "the big celebration [has] to happen at the same time as the legal wedding", imo.

As a random aside, in Japan it's not uncommon for the celebration to take place years after the legal wedding, which is nothing more than the submission of the proper forms. No ceremony of any kind is required. For a lot of sumo wrestlers, it's not uncommon to see something in the news along the lines of "so-and-so announced that he's been married since last year and the wedding is scheduled for two months after his wife is expected to give birth to their first child, which is three months from now." I've seen pictures of western-style sumo weddings where the ringbearers are the couple's children. There's no rush, and many people don't have ceremonies at all.

[offsides]

Thanks Freddy. I'm guessing fewer deaths because younger people getting it, better treatment methods, increased testing and older people like me being more careful. Hope it continues, I've had more than enough of this crap. Ruining my summer.

[King Colby]

The lowest 7-day new case average for the nation as a whole was on 6/9 (hehe), meaning the surge started then. It has been 27 days since then and the 7-day death average continues to decrease. Im guessimg a week from now it will have increased but not at the same rate of new cases.

Biggest reasons:
-Age of positives has lowered
-Total number of tests administered catching significantly more cases than they were before
-Hospitals have a COVID playbook now
-Lower viral load from masks and physical distancing
-Potential viral mutation to be less lethal
-significantly better protection of the highest risk population

[grunthy]

The lowest 7-day new case average for the nation as a whole was on 6/9 (hehe), meaning the surge started then. It has been 27 days since then and the 7-day death average continues to decrease. Im guessimg a week from now it will have increased but not at the same rate of new cases.

Biggest reasons:
-Age of positives has lowered
-Total number of tests administered catching significantly more cases than they were before
-Hospitals have a COVID playbook now
-Lower viral load from masks and physical distancing
-Potential viral mutation to be less lethal
-significantly better protection of the highest risk population

Take the hypothetical example below:

Say the IFR is .4% for covid.

At our peak deaths we were losing about 2,500 a day, which would mean about 630k people were infected a day at peak. We were barely testing anyone, so we weren’t catching any cases.

Now let’s assume it is still as deadly now at .4%.

Say we are losing around 400 people a day, which would mean we are having about 100k infections per day, though now we are testing almost 10 times more, so catching a lot more of the cases.

So this new peak could actually be a “manufactured” peak.

[grunthy]

This isn’t saying it isn’t rising in the south and other states, just that it’s probably not the same conditions of what happened at the very beginning.

[King Colby]

Is there a comprehensive place to get total tests by day and percent positive? Would be interesting to extrapolate data from like April 5th to the total number of tests counted on July 5th and see how many new cases there "would have been"

[Sam's Drunk Dog]

Regeneron starts Phase 3 trial of Covid antibody drug that might treat and prevent infection, company says

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/06/health/r ... index.html

[King Colby]

Found it... arbitrarily selected 2 thursdays.

April 9th... 34,055 new cases on 169,694 tests (20% positive)
July 2... 57,319 new cases on 665,084 tests (8.6% positive)

Had there been the same number of tests on 4/9 at the same positive rate, there would have been 133,472 new cases that day.

Obviously there are other variables and this is back of the napkin but you get the point.

[grunthy]

Is there a comprehensive place to get total tests by day and percent positive? Would be interesting to extrapolate data from like April 5th to the total number of tests counted on July 5th and see how many new cases there "would have been"

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/dail ... thed-7-day

We tested around 130k people a day on April 5th, July 5th around 640k.

April 5th about 26k tested positive per worldometers. So around a 20% positive rate.

Take the test amounts from July 5th and keep the same percentage positive it would be 128k testing positive.

[King Colby]

Regeneron starts Phase 3 trial of Covid antibody drug that might treat and prevent infection, company says

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/06/health/r ... index.html

[willeyeam]

[Troy Loney]

I feel like this sums things up the covid debate pretty well.

[NTP66]

Herd immunity is a pipe dream for every nation, and certainly not something we should be striving for.

[count2infinity]

at that video...

[grunthy]

Should mention this is from a study of antibodies from almost 2-3 months ago. This study is being pushed everywhere without mentioning this in headlines.

[grunthy]

Also, it’s measuring antibody only which apparently in some studies say only 30% of people actually develop, most develop T-cell response according to these studies.

[eddy]

Ivy league making a decision on upcoming season tomorrow

[shoeshine boy]

ICYMI: ATL mayor tests positive.
https://www.ajc.com/news/local-govt--po ... NkIDqtfXM/

[King Colby]

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/arti ... ssion=true

[nocera]

Allegheny Co. officials to provide a COVID-19 update as cases continue to spike, 204 new cases reported
https://www.wpxi.com/news/top-stories/a ... UPVMVYL4A/

My guess is they're going to announce the continuation of the bar/restaurant closures. My hunch would be they're going to announce these week-by-week but who knows. I picked up take-out over the weekend and the owner of the restaurant said rumor was it would be a month-long closure.

[King Colby]

7 new hospitalizations is somewhat alarming

[nocera]

7 new hospitalizations is somewhat alarming

Yeah hospitalizations are clearly rising. That makes 30 for the past week. And according to everybody's favorite redditor, the last time we have 30 in a week was 5/15-5/21.

[grunthy]

7 new hospitalizations is somewhat alarming

Yeah hospitalizations are clearly rising. That makes 30 for the past week. And according to everybody's favorite redditor, the last time we have 30 in a week was 5/15-5/21.

How many discharged in that same time period though?