COVID-19

King Colby
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COVID-19

Postby King Colby » Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:32 pm

Very few wear masks here. Mostly elderly and African-Americans. Meanwhile, positive cases are soaring yet testing has remained consistent.
is my hilton head trip on 6/25 at risk?

Nuge
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COVID-19

Postby Nuge » Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:17 pm

I did a curbside pickup at Lowe’s on Saturday. It took about a half hour for them to bring it out (which I assume is because nobody else is doing that anymore). While sitting in the car I saw less than five people wearing masks going in and half the people working there had them around their necks. Once we went green all precautions seemed to go out the window.

grunthy
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COVID-19

Postby grunthy » Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:39 pm

Very few wear masks here. Mostly elderly and African-Americans. Meanwhile, positive cases are soaring yet testing has remained consistent.
is my hilton head trip on 6/25 at risk?
I doubt the country closes again.

nocera
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COVID-19

Postby nocera » Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:39 pm

The trip probably isn't at risk. You might be at risk, though.

grunthy
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COVID-19

Postby grunthy » Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:40 pm

People are slowly accepting the new normal. Summer and protests accelerated it.

grunthy
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Postby grunthy » Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:41 pm

The trip probably isn't at risk. You might be at risk, though.
If he isn’t 65 or older, his risk is negligible. I just wouldn’t visit anyone over 65 for 2 weeks when you return.

count2infinity
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Postby count2infinity » Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:43 pm

I don't think people are accepting the "new normal"... they just don't care any more and want to get back to what they had last summer.

grunthy
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Postby grunthy » Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:44 pm

I don't think people are accepting the "new normal"... they just don't care any more and want to get back to what they had last summer.
Accepting/not caring to me is pretty similar.

count2infinity
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Postby count2infinity » Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:45 pm

I don't think you and I are on the same page about what "don't care" means.

grunthy
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Postby grunthy » Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:46 pm

I don't think you and I are on the same page about what "don't care" means.

That’s fine.

grunthy
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Postby grunthy » Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:49 pm

'It's serious': South Carolina sees worst spike in COVID-19 cases since pandemic began
https://www.wjcl.com/article/it-s-serio ... n/32826669#

Arizona hospitals at 83% capacity, elective surgery may stop
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... r-BB15jpJV

The thing about Arizona is interesting. It’s mostly the dwell time that is hurting their hospitals. Their new admissions are actually decreasing for the past week. It’s just people stay a long time with this disease.

nocera
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COVID-19

Postby nocera » Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:53 pm

The trip probably isn't at risk. You might be at risk, though.
If he isn’t 65 or older, his risk is negligible. I just wouldn’t visit anyone over 65 for 2 weeks when you return.
I guess I should have said you might be at risk to contract the virus. Even if the risk of death is low for anyone under 65, I'd still prefer not to get sick.

grunthy
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COVID-19

Postby grunthy » Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:57 pm

The trip probably isn't at risk. You might be at risk, though.
If he isn’t 65 or older, his risk is negligible. I just wouldn’t visit anyone over 65 for 2 weeks when you return.
I guess I should have said you might be at risk to contract the virus. Even if the risk of death is low for anyone under 65, I'd still prefer not to get sick.
Well of course no one wants to get this virus, but getting it as someone under 65 your risk is very very small of anything happening to you outside of feeling like crap for 7-14 days.

There is a 35% chance you don’t even know you have it.

Troy Loney
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Postby Troy Loney » Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:03 pm

https://www.al.com/news/2020/06/the-cor ... -high.html

Doesn't seem like we're on a particularly good trajectory here. Probably only a matter of time till we get an outbreak here in Pittsburgh.

AuthorTony
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Postby AuthorTony » Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:07 pm

There's nothing to worry about people. The experts on FB have informed me that the reason for the spike in hospitalizations is because people going in for elective surgery are testing positive and being kept in the hospital. But the FakeNews won't tell anyone the truth because of November.

Troy Loney
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COVID-19

Postby Troy Loney » Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:10 pm

There's nothing to worry about people. The experts on FB have informed me that the reason for the spike in hospitalizations is because people going in for elective surgery are testing positive and being kept in the hospital. But the FakeNews won't tell anyone the truth because of November.
And Mexicans.

grunthy
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Postby grunthy » Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:22 pm

There's nothing to worry about people. The experts on FB have informed me that the reason for the spike in hospitalizations is because people going in for elective surgery are testing positive and being kept in the hospital. But the FakeNews won't tell anyone the truth because of November.
It’s dwell time within the hospital that’s the issue.

nocera
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Postby nocera » Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:27 pm

Come on man, you keep changing up your story to explain why everything is fine. First it was "there are just more cases because of increased testing. Hospitalizations are a better metric." Then when hospitalizations rise it's "well, dwell time is causing the numbers to look worse."

Troy Loney
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Postby Troy Loney » Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:37 pm

I think the situation is really determinant on the nature of these positive tests in NC, AZ, TX, FL, AL, CA etc. Are these asymptomatic cases that are being caught early? Or are these cases being caught late in the course which makes contact tracing more difficult to do, or even impossible if they can't determine when the person contracted the virus.

grunthy
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Postby grunthy » Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:40 pm

Come on man, you keep changing up your story to explain why everything is fine. First it was "there are just more cases because of increased testing. Hospitalizations are a better metric." Then when hospitalizations rise it's "well, dwell time is causing the numbers to look worse."
I’m not changing anything. Oklahoma the last three days has had increased in cases detected, but 66 to 63 to 58 in the ICU the last three days. Total hospitalizations have increased 148 to 153. It’s looking at all these metrics to actually look at what is happening. A lot of states don’t report this level of detail, so it isn’t possible to make too formed of a judgement.

grunthy
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Postby grunthy » Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:45 pm

3 days isn’t much, but it could show a start of a trend to less invasive care because of the demographics of infection happening. if it keeps going like that for a week or so, then it is most likely the demographics are changing resulting in less invasive care. If it doesn’t start increasing quickly it would also show that dwell time is possibly shorter because of who is getting sick.

King Colby
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Postby King Colby » Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:49 pm

So far every state cited as having "spikes" has continued to follow the same upward trajectory as before. Look at the Alabama graph. The hardest hitters from March and April are still improving.

Why are we ignoring that?

King Colby
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Postby King Colby » Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:51 pm

The trip probably isn't at risk. You might be at risk, though.
If he isn’t 65 or older, his risk is negligible. I just wouldn’t visit anyone over 65 for 2 weeks when you return.
I guess I should have said you might be at risk to contract the virus. Even if the risk of death is low for anyone under 65, I'd still prefer not to get sick.
Yeah I'm not really worried about myself. I'm doing the same thing there that I do here. Hang out in the house with a small group, go to the pool/beach, golf, get takeout. Risk profile is no different here vs there. Its just... if everything is full lock down mode again whats the point of going?

Troy Loney
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COVID-19

Postby Troy Loney » Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:00 pm

So far every state cited as having "spikes" has continued to follow the same upward trajectory as before. Look at the Alabama graph. The hardest hitters from March and April are still improving.

Why are we ignoring that?
I'm not sure what you are getting at? The use of the word spike? Maybe that's not a choice word, but 4+ months into various levels of economic lockdown, for an area/region to be experiencing a sustained growth in cases would be bad. Considering that these tend to be the states that one, didn't get hit hard at the outset, and two, reopened before most of the country. One can probably conclude that a lot of the case growth in those states is tied to reopening. And if so, what's being done to contain the community spread that is currently being done? Are they isolating cases, doing contact tracing? Doesn't really seem like it. So basically, the country has one tool to use, business closures, and there's no appetite for that in those states. The cases will never spread as fast as they would in NYC, but if the base level of outstanding cases continues growing, that is going to be felt.

King Colby
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Postby King Colby » Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:14 pm

So far every state cited as having "spikes" has continued to follow the same upward trajectory as before. Look at the Alabama graph. The hardest hitters from March and April are still improving.

Why are we ignoring that?
I'm not sure what you are getting at? The use of the word spike? Maybe that's not a choice word, but 4+ months into various levels of economic lockdown, for an area/region to be experiencing a sustained growth in cases would be bad. Considering that these tend to be the states that one, didn't get hit hard at the outset, and two, reopened before most of the country. One can probably conclude that a lot of the case growth in those states is tied to reopening. And if so, what's being done to contain the community spread that is currently being done? Are they isolating cases, doing contact tracing? Doesn't really seem like it. So basically, the country has one tool to use, business closures, and there's no appetite for that in those states. The cases will never spread as fast as they would in NYC, but if the base level of outstanding cases continues growing, that is going to be felt.
Don't you think that if increased case counts are tied to reopening, there should have been a decrease in case counts when they closed? Or did the timing just work out so perfectly that both did happen, and just as the curve was about to turn downward from closing, a shift upward nearly identical in magnitude happened due to reopening?

I think it is the word "spike" is the issue too,, since it basically implies that it was decreasing and is now increasing, or it was increasing and is now increasing at a faster rate. That's not whats happening. The slope of the line hasn't changed.

Based on the data, which I admit is very flawed, the northeast was the earliest hardest hit area, seemed to hit its peak around the 10th of April, and has steadily declined ever since despite largely reopening.

If i have a 100 bed hospital and 10 are occupied, then the next day 10 more are admitted, then 9 then 8 then 7 and so on until 1, then I've seen my capacity decrease from 90% to 35% over 11 days even though admissions have dropped. A long average LOS is a big factor here especially in areas that cases continue to steadily increase (tx, az, ca, al, etc)

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