COVID-19

Troy Loney
Posts: 27627
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 3:03 pm

COVID-19

Postby Troy Loney » Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:13 pm


I agree, which is why I envision a gradual progression.
The main problem I see with a reopening is that infections anywhere could result again in infections everywhere so long as travel is not restricted. For example, if Allegheny County manages to reduce cases to zero but people can still travel from other counties where infection is still present, then infections would just spread back to Allegheny County. China dealt with this problem by shutting down domestic travel, but that's probably not something we can do here. Heck, right now there are still airline flights into and out of the greater New York City area, and that's the US epicenter of the outbreak. There's certainly nothing preventing people from driving out of NYC. I can't see the American populace accepting city, county, or state-wide roadblocks and travel bans that would be necessary to do what China did, and that sort of thing would likely be unconstitutional anyway.
This to me is where I have I am concerned with the feds abdicating the planning and decision making to the individual states. While hindsight is 20/20 and back when WA and CA shut down it didn't make sense for the entire country to lock it down. But as we can see now that was incredibly short sighted and allowed for careless actors like DeSantis, De Blasio and Kemp to fail to take the necessary actions.

We almost assuredly seem to be on a path where certain localities are going to decide they are safe to open things up which will allow individuals to make reckless decisions, and as long as people are able to do as they please here, we are vulnerable, as you stated, from people simply moving around the country.

grunthy
Posts: 18239
Joined: Thu Mar 26, 2015 8:29 pm

COVID-19

Postby grunthy » Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:15 pm

We are buying time until any effective treatment works. If people can just pop a pill like a tamiflu and it keeps a majority of people out of the hospital that would have otherwise required hospitalization, then we won’t need to do as many restrictions.

Gaucho
Posts: 50042
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 5:31 pm
Location: shootzepucklefraude

COVID-19

Postby Gaucho » Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:31 pm

Bingo.

faftorial
Posts: 14927
Joined: Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:35 pm
Location: Lengeschder

COVID-19

Postby faftorial » Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:38 pm

Image

King Colby
Posts: 18173
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 6:35 pm

COVID-19

Postby King Colby » Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:39 pm

:idea:
Just had a nerd out. If you take the total case count by day for Allegheny county over the last 16 days and fit to a linear trendline, the R-squared value is .9868

Start 3/23 (48 cases)
End 4/7 (689 cases)
In English that means
1.000 is a perfectly straight line and all the data points hit right on the straight line. 0.9868 is pretty darn close.
What c2i said. Which means that over the past 16 days growth in Allegheny county has been linear as opposed to exponential. Which theoretically means the transmission rate is close to 1. Which means 1 person infects 1 other person and not somewhere between 2 and 3 people.

King Colby
Posts: 18173
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 6:35 pm

COVID-19

Postby King Colby » Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:55 pm

I hate to be a Debbie Downer, but no one at any level of government has a clear plan for lifting this lockdown. What we've been doing with the lockdowns, closures, and social distancing is merely mitigation: keeping the rate of new infections as low as possible by trying to keep infected persons from mixing with uninfected persons. But we are months away from anything such as a vaccine that would prevent people from actually getting infected. If we lift the restrictions and the infected start mixing more again with the 90%+ of the population that hasn't been infected, then all that will happen is that infections and deaths will explode all over again.
All true. For me, the "peak" is a milestone because that answers a key unknown - what is the true scope of this virus? It also allows resources to be shifted from a "how do we control this" approach to "ok now what" approach.

It's going to be a tricky process to navigate which economy-saving levers you can pull while maintaining control of the virus and keeping it level.

Obviously antivirals and vaccinations are key, but I'd also like to see a lot of resources put toward large scale antibody testing.

Gaucho
Posts: 50042
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 5:31 pm
Location: shootzepucklefraude

COVID-19

Postby Gaucho » Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:21 pm

Canada begins clinical trial of experimental COVID-19 treatment using plasma from recovered individuals
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/ ... ent-using/

eddy
Posts: 22353
Joined: Thu Mar 26, 2015 9:49 am
Location: Emmet's barn loft

COVID-19

Postby eddy » Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:35 pm

So long as it's not "everyone go back to work right now". That would be a huge mistake, one I fully expect certain states to make.
My University doesn't want anyone back on campus until August 1

pens9192
Posts: 1010
Joined: Thu Mar 02, 2017 11:17 pm

COVID-19

Postby pens9192 » Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:37 pm

The blood immunity test that UPMC is close to finishing is promising and could be a key factor in easing up on restrictions until a vaccine is released. The problem is how do you track that or get people tested? If a business wants to bring everyone back in the office, do you require that testing to see who won't spread the virus? Lots of questions still to answer. But the data a few a days ago where 50% of cases do not show any symptoms makes you wonder where that leads us down the road. 50% of us here on the boards may have been exposed to the virus and didn't even know it and we might never get sick from it in the future.

pens9192
Posts: 1010
Joined: Thu Mar 02, 2017 11:17 pm

COVID-19

Postby pens9192 » Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:46 pm

Our pre-COVID family of six schedule for tonight looked like dinner, play rehearsal, swim lessons, baseball practice, and maybe the gym. Now there is nothing on the agenda except family time. Kind of nice not to have to juggle all that tonight and pull hair my hair in the process.

shafnutz05
Posts: 50578
Joined: Tue Mar 24, 2015 7:27 pm
Location: A moron or a fascist...but not both.

COVID-19

Postby shafnutz05 » Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:01 pm

Rain was forecast today and instead another picture perfect spring day.

offsides
Posts: 2664
Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2015 10:26 am
Location: Washington, PA

COVID-19

Postby offsides » Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:23 pm

Riverside County’s public health officer on Saturday ordered all residents to cover their faces when leaving home

https://www.latimes.com/california/stor ... -in-public

offsides
Posts: 2664
Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2015 10:26 am
Location: Washington, PA

COVID-19

Postby offsides » Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:25 pm

Rain was forecast today and instead another picture perfect spring day.
We got your forecast. Half inch here today.

Freddy Rumsen
Posts: 35313
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 11:50 am
Location: "Order is the only possibility of rest." -- Wendell Berry

COVID-19

Postby Freddy Rumsen » Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:59 pm

One of those southern states is doing well.


AuthorTony
Posts: 8962
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 11:18 am

COVID-19

Postby AuthorTony » Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:03 pm

https://cointelegraph.com/news/jack-dor ... -19-relief
Jack Dorsey Donates 28% of His Wealth to Global COVID-19 Relief

count2infinity
Posts: 35739
Joined: Tue Mar 24, 2015 2:06 pm
Location: All things must pass. With six you get eggroll. No matter how thin you slice it, it's still baloney.
Contact:

COVID-19

Postby count2infinity » Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:26 pm

What’s Arkansas doing differently?

NTP66
Posts: 60976
Joined: Sun Oct 04, 2015 2:00 pm
Location: FUCΚ! Even in the future nothing works.

COVID-19

Postby NTP66 » Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:31 pm

Staying at home with their sister wives.

count2infinity
Posts: 35739
Joined: Tue Mar 24, 2015 2:06 pm
Location: All things must pass. With six you get eggroll. No matter how thin you slice it, it's still baloney.
Contact:

COVID-19

Postby count2infinity » Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:37 pm

Sister’s wife? Awfully progressive.

willeyeam
Posts: 39781
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:49 pm
Location: hodgepodge of nothingness

COVID-19

Postby willeyeam » Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:38 pm

My friend there has been home with their goats

Freddy Rumsen
Posts: 35313
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 11:50 am
Location: "Order is the only possibility of rest." -- Wendell Berry

COVID-19

Postby Freddy Rumsen » Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:43 pm

This is wildly different from other countries.


King Colby
Posts: 18173
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 6:35 pm

COVID-19

Postby King Colby » Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:44 pm

The blood immunity test that UPMC is close to finishing is promising and could be a key factor in easing up on restrictions until a vaccine is released. The problem is how do you track that or get people tested? If a business wants to bring everyone back in the office, do you require that testing to see who won't spread the virus? Lots of questions still to answer. But the data a few a days ago where 50% of cases do not show any symptoms makes you wonder where that leads us down the road. 50% of us here on the boards may have been exposed to the virus and didn't even know it and we might never get sick from it in the future.
Large scale testing could indicate where you are relative to herd immunity.

If 50% dont have symptoms, and 80% with symptoms dont get tested, that's kind of a lot of people. And what if it already went through here in december and january like some have postured?

mac5155
Posts: 13980
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:47 pm

COVID-19

Postby mac5155 » Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:51 pm

:idea:
Just had a nerd out. If you take the total case count by day for Allegheny county over the last 16 days and fit to a linear trendline, the R-squared value is .9868

Start 3/23 (48 cases)
End 4/7 (689 cases)
In English that means
1.000 is a perfectly straight line and all the data points hit right on the straight line. 0.9868 is pretty darn close.
What c2i said. Which means that over the past 16 days growth in Allegheny county has been linear as opposed to exponential. Which theoretically means the transmission rate is close to 1. Which means 1 person infects 1 other person and not somewhere between 2 and 3 people.
What I was looking for. TYFYS

mac5155
Posts: 13980
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:47 pm

COVID-19

Postby mac5155 » Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:52 pm

Canada begins clinical trial of experimental COVID-19 treatment using plasma from recovered individuals
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/ ... ent-using/
I swear I saw a post on social media asking for someone who had recovered from COVID-19 to donate plasma in an attempt to save a Doctor in Ohio.

count2infinity
Posts: 35739
Joined: Tue Mar 24, 2015 2:06 pm
Location: All things must pass. With six you get eggroll. No matter how thin you slice it, it's still baloney.
Contact:

COVID-19

Postby count2infinity » Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:54 pm

The blood immunity test that UPMC is close to finishing is promising and could be a key factor in easing up on restrictions until a vaccine is released. The problem is how do you track that or get people tested? If a business wants to bring everyone back in the office, do you require that testing to see who won't spread the virus? Lots of questions still to answer. But the data a few a days ago where 50% of cases do not show any symptoms makes you wonder where that leads us down the road. 50% of us here on the boards may have been exposed to the virus and didn't even know it and we might never get sick from it in the future.
Large scale testing could indicate where you are relative to herd immunity.

If 50% dont have symptoms, and 80% with symptoms dont get tested, that's kind of a lot of people. And what if it already went through here in december and january like some have postured?
I’d love to know when this thing actually hit us soil.

Freddy Rumsen
Posts: 35313
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 11:50 am
Location: "Order is the only possibility of rest." -- Wendell Berry

COVID-19

Postby Freddy Rumsen » Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:55 pm

No new cases in China.


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Dickie Dunn, Majestic-12 [Bot], meecrofilm, MrKennethTKangaroo, pens9192 and 191 guests