COVID-19

[nocera]

Two different friends were supposed to get married in May. One pushed back until October, the other is looking for late June, early July. I think the quarantining will be lifted by then, he isn't so sure.

Mine is scheduled for late June and we're just now starting to consider alternative options. We probably won't know if we need to postpone until mid May, though. Makes it tough to plan and send out invitations.

[Gaucho]

The Bay Area population is 7+ million.

[faftorial]

Based on the Kinsa Health, which seems to have been pretty accurate in finding hotspots before COVID statistically spikes in a region, it looks like social distancing is working. They are showing a 5-10 day lag from their data to state data. Based on their data the USA will peak in the next 5 days or so.

When NY state says 10 to 15 days away and it's barely made a dent in most other places yet?

Peak daily case additions is different than peak resource demand. That is New York’s projected peak resource demand.

Thanks.

Latest in NYC is that peak resource demand is coming 7 to 21 days from now.

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

the San Francisco–Oakland–Berkeley metro statistical area population is ~5 million. The New York metro area is ~21 million

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Franc ... tical_Area

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_ ... litan_area

[willeyeam]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U ... on_density

[MR25]

New York/Manhattan Island's population density would make it the 6th most densely populated country in the world (

It's its own unique situation that really has no comparable.

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

plus, I don't have any actual evidence, just anecdotal, but NY is a larger transportation hub. Comparing SF with NYC directly is tough

[Gaucho]

Yes, it is. All I'm saying is the Bay Area population is 7+ million. dodint asked for context, so I helped him read the tweet.

[Gaucho]

Density is the key, as ulf pointed out.

[grunthy]

Based on the Kinsa Health, which seems to have been pretty accurate in finding hotspots before COVID statistically spikes in a region, it looks like social distancing is working. They are showing a 5-10 day lag from their data to state data. Based on their data the USA will peak in the next 5 days or so.

When NY state says 10 to 15 days away and it's barely made a dent in most other places yet?

Peak daily case additions is different than peak resource demand. That is New York’s projected peak resource demand.

Thanks.

Latest in NYC is that peak resource demand is coming 7 to 21 days from now.

New York is almost tracking “perfectly” with the IHME model from University of Washington. It projected they would have 1537-1572 deaths by today. They are at 1550.

[Gaucho]

Science is wonderful and terrifying.

[eddy]

Science is wonderful and terrifying.

That's what I say about whiskey

[dodint]

plus, I don't have any actual evidence, just anecdotal, but NY is a larger transportation hub. Comparing SF with NYC directly is tough

In chatting with a friend from there he points out that the SF area doesn't have public transport in the way that NYC does either.

When I was looking at the graph I checked the SF population against NYC. Then 'Bay Area' v. NYC metro area. We can keep moving the goalposts all you want Gaucho but no matter what you do the difference is in orders of magnitude.

The proper thing would be for the author to adjust the graph to reflect per capita data but there wouldn't be a virtue signaling aspect to the article at that point.

[Gaucho]

A science unto itself.

[Gaucho]

I didn't move any goalposts...

[shafnutz05]

Ugly numbers from NY today.

http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

New York is tracking almost to the T to this model.

Looking at this website--it says that Pennsylvania normally has 1,043 ICU beds available and New York state has 718. That seems like an absurdly low number for a state as populous as New York---PA's population is roughly 65% what New York's is. Am I missing something here? Illinois has 1,131.

Why does New York have such a disproportionately lower number of ICU beds vs. total beds?

[DigitalGypsy66]

Wolfram Alpha is good at metro comparisons: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=s ... .+new+york

[grunthy]

Ugly numbers from NY today.

http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

New York is tracking almost to the T to this model.

Looking at this website--it says that Pennsylvania normally has 1,043 ICU beds available and New York state has 718. That seems like an absurdly low number for a state as populous as New York---PA's population is roughly 65% what New York's is. Am I missing something here? Illinois has 1,131.

Why does New York have such a disproportionately lower number of ICU beds vs. total beds?

That’s just available ICU beds, not total ICU beds in the state.

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

Wolfram Alpha is good at metro comparisons: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=s ... .+new+york

wolfram alpha is good at everything. This was a vital tool for getting a degree in physics

[MalkinIsMyHomeboy]

jesus, if this is true, **** the people who run these hospitals

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... k-to-press

Hospitals Tell Doctors They’ll Be Fired If They Speak Out About Lack of Gear

[King Colby]

SF population is 1/10th the size of the NYC population. I can't click-thru to the article so I'm not sure if that very important distinction is made. And, as usual, you just hoisted it up there without context so I have to approach it with the highest level of scrutiny.

Variables aside, the Bay area curve would be higher if they delayed their shelter in place order. And the NY curve would be lower if they ordered theirs earlier.

[Lemon Berry Lobster]

Two different friends were supposed to get married in May. One pushed back until October, the other is looking for late June, early July. I think the quarantining will be lifted by then, he isn't so sure.

Mine is scheduled for late June and we're just now starting to consider alternative options. We probably won't know if we need to postpone until mid May, though. Makes it tough to plan and send out invitations.

Hopefully the curve got flattened enough. Can't imagine the added stress. The one that rescheduled already had to find a new venue before the corona struck

[pens9192]

LA with 2,474 cases and 44 deaths. Total opposite experiences between our two most populated cities.

[nocera]

LA with 2,474 cases and 44 deaths. Total opposite experiences between our two most populated cities.

Much less dependent on public transportation, much less population density, much more spread out, etc. etc. etc.

[nocera]

Two different friends were supposed to get married in May. One pushed back until October, the other is looking for late June, early July. I think the quarantining will be lifted by then, he isn't so sure.

Mine is scheduled for late June and we're just now starting to consider alternative options. We probably won't know if we need to postpone until mid May, though. Makes it tough to plan and send out invitations.

Hopefully the curve got flattened enough. Can't imagine the added stress. The one that rescheduled already had to find a new venue before the corona struck

I wouldn't be opposed to pushing it back regardless even if restrictions get lifted in time. I imagine most people are still going to be pretty skittish about large gatherings. With 10+ vendors and venue scheduling to deal with, that's not exactly an easy thing to do.