COVID-19

[King Colby]

Based on the Kinsa Health, which seems to have been pretty accurate in finding hotspots before COVID statistically spikes in a region, it looks like social distancing is working. They are showing a 5-10 day lag from their data to state data. Based on their data the USA will peak in the next 5 days or so.

If so, you've been on top of it for about a week now.

I've been aligned with you on this. Relative to timelines associated with shutting down social gatherings and how that timeline aligns with encounter of symptoms, hospitalizations, etc... it just makes sense.

People want to go on media and blab about how "nobody is listening" but for every picture you see of 50 idiots gathered on the Mt Washington overlook on a sunday, you dont get to see a picture of 5000 other people sitting in their living rooms alone. It isnt and will never be 100% but a vast majority of those who can social distance are social distancing. At least among those that I know.

[King Colby]

I hope so... would be great to get back to normal sooner than later. Unfortunately, I'm not very optimistic. I don't know why.

Well I think it's because the peak is just step 1. There is a long way to go between peak and returning to normal life. Several weeks, otherwise you'll just quickly get back to where you were when you started. Plus, the peak on a flattened curve lasts a long, long time. The end game playbook is key, and patience will be truly tested.

[faftorial]

Based on the Kinsa Health, which seems to have been pretty accurate in finding hotspots before COVID statistically spikes in a region, it looks like social distancing is working. They are showing a 5-10 day lag from their data to state data. Based on their data the USA will peak in the next 5 days or so.

When NY state says 10 to 15 days away and it's barely made a dent in most other places yet?

[MR25]

RE: Allegheny County numbers

Sounds promising but we don't know if there's actually that few new cases or those are the only new cases out of people they've been willing to test.

And there's no telling how these models are taking the testing or lack thereof into account.

[NTP66]

Source of the post And there's no telling how these models are taking the testing or lack thereof into account.

Bingo.

[nocera]

[MR25]

I'm just being realistic.

[faftorial]

I'm just being realistic.

[grunthy]

Based on the Kinsa Health, which seems to have been pretty accurate in finding hotspots before COVID statistically spikes in a region, it looks like social distancing is working. They are showing a 5-10 day lag from their data to state data. Based on their data the USA will peak in the next 5 days or so.

When NY state says 10 to 15 days away and it's barely made a dent in most other places yet?

Peak daily case additions is different than peak resource demand. That is New York’s projected peak resource demand.

[DigitalGypsy66]

Also, Parris Island stopped accepting new recruits because of the spread of the virus there.

The Pentagon ordered all bases/installations to stop reporting cases publicly, leaving many communities in the dark about how bad things are inside the gates.

[grunthy]

RE: Allegheny County numbers

Sounds promising but we don't know if there's actually that few new cases or those are the only new cases out of people they've been willing to test.

And there's no telling how these models are taking the testing or lack thereof into account.

Kinsa Health is just using people taking their temperatures. It doesn’t need tests to get a reading on projected case load. It has accurately predicted the flu season the last two years, and where the hotspots where for flu. Now it looks like it’s been predicting hotspots for COVID.

[AuthorTony]

Forgive me if it was mentioned and I missed it, but is there a website where we can view the Kinsa Health data?

[grunthy]

Forgive me if it was mentioned and I missed it, but is there a website where we can view the Kinsa Health data?

https://healthweather.us/

[AuthorTony]

Thank you!

[grunthy]

Forgive me if it was mentioned and I missed it, but is there a website where we can view the Kinsa Health data?

You can actually see where temps spiked 10-15 days ago and then 5 or so days later the case rate exploded in those areas.

[Troy Loney]

Ugly numbers from NY today.

[grunthy]

Ugly numbers from NY today.

http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

New York is tracking almost to the T to this model.

[eddy]

Sounds like some Universities are cancelling face to face summer classes, just got an email saying faculty, staff and admin won't be back on campus. Not sure how long they are going to continue to pay me not to come in, but I gotta start thinking they are going to furlough a lot of us for the summer soon

[Freddy Rumsen]

[Kaiser]

You're constantly sick in boot camp already. I don't know how the virus would stand against all those injections, but it didn't seem to do the recruits any immediate favors. I hope they're doing something besides continue f***ing with the kids in there.

[dodint]

You're constantly sick in boot camp already. I don't know how the virus would stand against all those injections, but it didn't seem to do the recruits any immediate favors. I hope they're doing something besides continue f***ing with the kids in there.

Med platoon is pretty chill. I imagine they'll assume that posture. Or, depending where they are at in training, just send them back home and reassign them to IRR until boot camp reopens. But that would probably do more harm than good to the communities they return to.

[LITT]

I have a feeling once people start seeing the numbers go down, there is going to be an immediate call to end the stay at home orders. That would be the absolute wrong call.

correct

[Lemon Berry Lobster]

Two different friends were supposed to get married in May. One pushed back until October, the other is looking for late June, early July. I think the quarantining will be lifted by then, he isn't so sure.

[Freddy Rumsen]

[dodint]

SF population is 1/10th the size of the NYC population. I can't click-thru to the article so I'm not sure if that very important distinction is made. And, as usual, you just hoisted it up there without context so I have to approach it with the highest level of scrutiny.