COVID-19

MrKennethTKangaroo
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COVID-19

Postby MrKennethTKangaroo » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:05 pm

Well, he doesn’t have any sporting event attendance to analyze, so he’s probably busy solving the effing problem himself becuase he has so much time on his hands

CBear3
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COVID-19

Postby CBear3 » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:09 pm

Wow, if I believe the IHME data, cases/deaths aren't supposed to peak in Missouri until mid-May.

Troy Loney
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COVID-19

Postby Troy Loney » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:11 pm

It does seem like social distancing is starting to "flatten the curve" here. At least in the places that don't have spiraling community spread.

I'm still wondering when these measures can be lifted.

Freddy Rumsen
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COVID-19

Postby Freddy Rumsen » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:15 pm

I don't think we will see a change in the current patterns until May 15th at the earliest, probably more likely June 1st.

nocera
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COVID-19

Postby nocera » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:17 pm

I'm totally fine with keeping restrictions in place longer than actually needed out of an abundance of caution. Although, I'm getting married on June 27th so it'd be nice to know if that is going to happen or not.

LITT
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COVID-19

Postby LITT » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:44 pm

It does seem like social distancing is starting to "flatten the curve" here. At least in the places that don't have spiraling community spread.

I'm still wondering when these measures can be lifted.
if i look at the graphs that were posted last page, the reason our curve has flattened is because it looks like the number of people being tested has flattneed

Troy Loney
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COVID-19

Postby Troy Loney » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:50 pm

It does seem like social distancing is starting to "flatten the curve" here. At least in the places that don't have spiraling community spread.

I'm still wondering when these measures can be lifted.
if i look at the graphs that were posted last page, the reason our curve has flattened is because it looks like the number of people being tested has flattneed
Yeah, seeing the increased measures being enacted does seem to imply things aren't getting better.

NTP66
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COVID-19

Postby NTP66 » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:52 pm

Things should be getting better in PA because of the lockdown, though. The question is when we'll see that show in a graph.

BTW, I still think most of these are pointless without expanded testing.

dodint
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COVID-19

Postby dodint » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:52 pm

I can make you a graph if you want, it would be just as useful as the blue-check twitter folks. :lol:

NTP66
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Postby NTP66 » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:53 pm

I can make you a graph if you want, it would be just as useful as the blue-check twitter folks. :lol:
Make it look good so that I feel better, please.

grunthy
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COVID-19

Postby grunthy » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:57 pm

It does seem like social distancing is starting to "flatten the curve" here. At least in the places that don't have spiraling community spread.

I'm still wondering when these measures can be lifted.
if i look at the graphs that were posted last page, the reason our curve has flattened is because it looks like the number of people being tested has flattneed
We aren’t flatlining on tests yet. The last couple of days have been 100k tests, 110k tests, and with a majority of the states still to report we are at 95k tests for today’s report. We are still going up. We are almost at 1 million total tests in the USA.

Trip McNeely
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COVID-19

Postby Trip McNeely » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:59 pm

It does seem like social distancing is starting to "flatten the curve" here. At least in the places that don't have spiraling community spread.

I'm still wondering when these measures can be lifted.
if i look at the graphs that were posted last page, the reason our curve has flattened is because it looks like the number of people being tested has flattneed
We aren’t flatlining on tests yet. The last couple of days have been 100k tests, 110k tests, and with a majority of the states still to report we are at 95k tests for today’s report. We are still going up. We are almost at 1 million total tests in the USA.
That’s not even close to what we need though. These lockdowns are gonna continue until there are plenty of tests. I mean one million tests only covers 1/10 of NYC. It’s still nowhere close to where it should be

MR25
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COVID-19

Postby MR25 » Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:00 pm

It does seem like social distancing is starting to "flatten the curve" here. At least in the places that don't have spiraling community spread.

I'm still wondering when these measures can be lifted.
if i look at the graphs that were posted last page, the reason our curve has flattened is because it looks like the number of people being tested has flattneed
Yeah, seeing the increased measures being enacted does seem to imply things aren't getting better.

The increased measures announced today is because idiots aren't listening to the lockdown. Groups are still going to the overlooks, to the parks, etc.

Freddy Rumsen
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Postby Freddy Rumsen » Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:04 pm

France has a much higher death rate than we do.


Freddy Rumsen
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Postby Freddy Rumsen » Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:04 pm


LITT
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COVID-19

Postby LITT » Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:07 pm

It does seem like social distancing is starting to "flatten the curve" here. At least in the places that don't have spiraling community spread.

I'm still wondering when these measures can be lifted.
if i look at the graphs that were posted last page, the reason our curve has flattened is because it looks like the number of people being tested has flattneed
We aren’t flatlining on tests yet. The last couple of days have been 100k tests, 110k tests, and with a majority of the states still to report we are at 95k tests for today’s report. We are still going up. We are almost at 1 million total tests in the USA.
i was referring to the link kenneth posted that was PA specific date. the rate of increase in daily testing has declined which would suggest a bottle neck in testing capacity

King Colby
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COVID-19

Postby King Colby » Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:11 pm

I think the fact that were not seeing exponential daily growth in PA right now is a big deal. The skew of current testing on moderate to severe cases indicates that more testing will lead to a lower percentage of positives. Or in other words as tests increase, new cases increase more slowly. That could very well be what we are seeing right now in PA, even more so in Allegheny county.

Remember, the "peak" in a flattened curve can last for several months.

The real question is what % change in new cases day-over-day indicates a significant increase? Where is the threshold? Time will tell.

King Colby
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COVID-19

Postby King Colby » Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:12 pm

France has a much higher death rate than we do.

At this point I'm not sure I trust any data coming from other countries after hearing of the reporting inconsistencies out of France and italy.

grunthy
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COVID-19

Postby grunthy » Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:18 pm

It does seem like social distancing is starting to "flatten the curve" here. At least in the places that don't have spiraling community spread.

I'm still wondering when these measures can be lifted.
if i look at the graphs that were posted last page, the reason our curve has flattened is because it looks like the number of people being tested has flattneed
We aren’t flatlining on tests yet. The last couple of days have been 100k tests, 110k tests, and with a majority of the states still to report we are at 95k tests for today’s report. We are still going up. We are almost at 1 million total tests in the USA.
That’s not even close to what we need though. These lockdowns are gonna continue until there are plenty of tests. I mean one million tests only covers 1/10 of NYC. It’s still nowhere close to where it should be
We are on pace to pass South Korea in per capita testing by next weekend at our current pace. South Korea is considered the gold standard.

count2infinity
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Postby count2infinity » Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:19 pm

There was some head of some health organization from PA on the news last night essentially saying that in PA they aren't continuing to test more, especially for non-severe cases. She said pretty much: "if you have the symptoms of COVID-19, just assume that it's COVID-19. Don't go get tested, stay home unless it's severe enough to get medical attention." I recall her even saying at one point that the "confirmed numbers" are very much underestimating the number of cases in PA because they're not testing everyone and anyone with symptoms.

nocera
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COVID-19

Postby nocera » Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:22 pm

There was some head of some health organization from PA on the news last night essentially saying that in PA they aren't continuing to test more, especially for non-severe cases. She said pretty much: "if you have the symptoms of COVID-19, just assume that it's COVID-19. Don't go get tested, stay home unless it's severe enough to get medical attention." I recall her even saying at one point that the "confirmed numbers" are very much underestimating the number of cases in PA because they're not testing everyone and anyone with symptoms.
They never were testing everyone with symptoms. From the start of the stay at home order, it was contact your physician if you have symptoms. The physician would then contact the health department/CDC. If you didn't met every single one of the criteria (all of the big three symptoms + known exposure or recent travel) you couldn't get tested. As far as I know, testing is still being done on severe cases.

Troy Loney
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COVID-19

Postby Troy Loney » Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:23 pm

It does seem like social distancing is starting to "flatten the curve" here. At least in the places that don't have spiraling community spread.

I'm still wondering when these measures can be lifted.
if i look at the graphs that were posted last page, the reason our curve has flattened is because it looks like the number of people being tested has flattneed
We aren’t flatlining on tests yet. The last couple of days have been 100k tests, 110k tests, and with a majority of the states still to report we are at 95k tests for today’s report. We are still going up. We are almost at 1 million total tests in the USA.
That’s not even close to what we need though. These lockdowns are gonna continue until there are plenty of tests. I mean one million tests only covers 1/10 of NYC. It’s still nowhere close to where it should be
And the increase in testing is pretty concentrated, nowhere near nationwide

MrKennethTKangaroo
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COVID-19

Postby MrKennethTKangaroo » Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:24 pm

She said pretty much: "if you have the symptoms of COVID-19, just assume that it's COVID-19. Don't go get tested, stay home unless it's severe enough to get medical attention."
That confirms some anecdotal evidence i'm hearing from friends.

count2infinity
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Postby count2infinity » Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:28 pm

I'm only paraphrasing what I think I heard... No clue if that's actually what the lady said.

NTP66
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Postby NTP66 » Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:31 pm

That has to be the wrong approach, no? Limiting our testing is going to bite us eventually.

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