COVID-19

[eddy]

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf

[Morkle]

Yeah... I can only imagine what happens in a few weeks when the numbers keep surging and more morons say "See? That didn't work, why stay in?"

They said last night that they expect 60-80% of Allegheny county population to be infected, they were already past what's being asked for now, imo.

I don't get this 60-80% stuff. Nowhere in the world has this shown to be a reasonable figure. How do they come to this number? Are they assuming 60-80% of the population will catch it in their lifetime if absolutely no measures are taken and no vaccine is developed? Just seems like lazy, scare tactics reporting to me.

Not trying to be the guy saying this is all a hoax, but you also have the other side of the loonies out there projecting worldwide pandemonium.

I think given the current situation, where they're not forcing everything to shut down, people are still very much coming in contact with others. I don't know what to believe, but at this rate, feels like it could happen, imo.

[meow]

There is also a HUGE part of the population that shows 0 symptoms when they have the virus. So the 60-80% may very well be correct, but that does not mean that 60-80% of the population is going to be at death's door. Hell, what percentage of the population gets the flu each year?

Don't get me wrong. I am all for this isolation tactic, but keep everything in perspective.

[Gaucho]

Again, the key is not how many people get it, it is when. In the long run, the more people get infected, the better. That's how immunization works. But as long as there is no vaccine in sight, you have to keep the numbers down.

[slappybrown]

Just had our first case in Lancaster County. Was talking to our PTO head on FB--at the Paradise Community meeting last night, there was an Amish guy there that was talking about how his daughter just got back from Montana and was "incredibly sick". You stupid MFer, WHY ARE YOU OUT IN PUBLIC?!

I can't take the sheer stupidity anymore.

you have no idea how stupid people have been

Is the south side hookah bar story true

[King Colby]

I have stopped putting any stock in the "heres how many will get it" reports based on all of the reasons you guys already stated.

[robbiestoupe]

Source of the post Read the PDF article I just posted not too long ago. It's very detailed

In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, we
would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months (Figure 1A). In
such scenarios, given an estimated R0 of 2.4, we predict 81% of the GB and US populations would be
infected over the course of the epidemic.

I only skimmed through but this is what stuck out. Also pointed out early in the article that this is an NPI study (non-pharmaceutical intervention)

[CBear3]

There is also a HUGE part of the population that shows 0 symptoms when they have the virus. So the 60-80% may very well be correct, but that does not mean that 60-80% of the population is going to be at death's door. Hell, what percentage of the population gets the flu each year?

Don't get me wrong. I am all for this isolation tactic, but keep everything in perspective.

35.5 million is the CDC's estimated flu exposure last year. 10% of the population.
That's with a large number of people getting the flu shot, so take it for what its worth.

[grunthy]

10-20% of the population gets influenza on average per year. Only 40% of people get vaccinated.

[AuthorTony]

10-20% of the population gets influenza on average per year. Only 40% of people get vaccinated.

I wonder if that 10-20% is only for people who are diagnosed with the flu. You have to think there's a large percentage of patients who get the flu but never go to the doctor/urgent care.

[CBear3]

10-20% of the population gets influenza on average per year. Only 40% of people get vaccinated.

I wonder if that 10-20% is only for people who are diagnosed with the flu. You have to think there's a large percentage of patients who get the flu but never go to the doctor/urgent care.

Last year's CDC numbers say they estimate 35.5 million got the flu, 16 million saw a healthcare provider about it, and 900k were admitted to hospitals.
So I take the 35.5 to include those that never got checked out.

[grunthy]

10-20% of the population gets influenza on average per year. Only 40% of people get vaccinated.

I wonder if that 10-20% is only for people who are diagnosed with the flu. You have to think there's a large percentage of patients who get the flu but never go to the doctor/urgent care.

These are estimates. Only 270k approx. are confirmed with the flu across this the USA.

[dodint]

The only thing more exhausting than COVID-19 is reading nobody mansplain statistics to other reasonable adults.

[CBear3]

But that 10% number is why I think saying 80% of the population is a gross overestimate and just scares people. Say 40% get the flu vaccine, and some years it covers the strains and some it doesn't. So let's say its only 50% effective. So 20% of the population were immune and only 10% total caught the flu. Rerun that with 20% of the pop thrown out and its a 12.5% infection rate.

Worst cases have put COVID as twice as infectious. So in a normal year 25% of people are infected (here's where log scales could really screw up the math)? That's the low end of what was presented to Congress last week, AND that isn't taking social distancing and PSA into consideration.

I'm still on the less than 10k US deaths train after all these efforts, or a hundred fold reduction. We're saving something to the tune of 1 million people through our actions.

At least that's my exhaustive, mansplained theory

[grunthy]

The only thing more exhausting than COVID-19 is reading nobody mansplain statistics to other reasonable adults.

Ok... I’m just answering questions people are asking with numbers from actual sources. Better than nothing.

[eddy]

Source of the post Read the PDF article I just posted not too long ago. It's very detailed

In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, we
would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months (Figure 1A). In
such scenarios, given an estimated R0 of 2.4, we predict 81% of the GB and US populations would be
infected over the course of the epidemic.

I only skimmed through but this is what stuck out. Also pointed out early in the article that this is an NPI study (non-pharmaceutical intervention)

Correct, by imperial college London

[NTP66]

Continuing to check this site, which seems to be the best by far in terms of updates and breakdowns:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

Man, as expected the US is absolutely surging.

That's the link at the bottom of the page that I posted.

My bad--didn't realize they were the same.

Pfft, I posted that link yesterday.

[mac5155]

I waiting for that fb post complaining that Olive Garden is closed...you know it’s coming.

The one in Uniontown is expanding delivery to a 15 mile radius.

[dodint]

Haven't the people of Uniontown suffered enough?

[willeyeam]

lol

[meow]

You know what is wild? Trying to explain this to a six year old.

[NTP66]

You know what is wild? Trying to explain this to a six year old.

We haven't gone into any details with our 7 year old. Basically just reinforcing the fact that hand washing needs to be more frequent, longer, and absolutely required, or you can get very, very sick.

[offsides]

Yeah, I'm more concerned to be honest of what things are going to look like in mid-April if this is still going on than I am the actual virus.
We've got a broken society already, that camel can't take too much more straw.

My thoughts also. Even though I am old, I am much more scared of what happens to this country if this hysteria continues then I am of catching a flu. Being infected is a long way from a death sentence.

[shafnutz05]

You know what is wild? Trying to explain this to a six year old.

We haven't gone into any details with our 7 year old. Basically just reinforcing the fact that hand washing needs to be more frequent, longer, and absolutely required, or you can get very, very sick.

Our six year old has been very mature about everything. She understands that she can't go across the street to play with her friends, and keeps talking about the "Corona". We don't go into all of the bad details of course but kids are surprisingly mature about this stuff. Honestly better than most 20 somethings

[NTP66]

No sense in scaring children over this any more than you have to. I envy her not having to really deal with this.