Travel Thread

[willeyeam]

This tweet surprised me after reading this thread

[nocera]

It really shouldn't be that shocking that the US is **** this up too.

[tifosi77]

Are they filtering for cargo flights? Granted, my local airport is a small regional facility, but the only air traffic I've seen for close to a month in anything like normal volume is GA. I mentioned previously we live in a high-volume low-altitude traffic area, and we're down to a small handful of arrivals a day, and nearly all of them are FedEx or UPS. There's like three Southwest jets a day now.

[RonnieFranchise]

I was waiting for the evidence that the number operating here was substantially more as a % of a regular day than elsewhere... but no data was provided other than the FR24-esque screen shots, it just ended.

The dozens of aircraft parked at PIT and elsewhere would indicate to me that the number of flights here is indeed down significantly. Maybe not as much as elsewhere but also not "with very little restriction."

https://blueskypit.com/2020/03/30/parke ... -airports/

Also Newark for example is currently seeing 3 to 5 arrivals and departures an hour, midday. Not typical.....

https://flightaware.com/live/airport/KEWR

O'Hare more like 20

https://flightaware.com/live/airport/KORD/departures

[Shyster]

Passenger traffic is down 96%. A lot of those flights might have only one or two people on them. There are still plenty of cargo flights flying, and passenger aircraft also carry cargo and mail, so that's primarily why flights are still taking place. Probably something like 75%+ of the US commercial fleet is grounded right now.

[tifosi77]

Not sure if this is 100% accurate, but I think most - if not all - groundings are because of the reduction in passenger demand, not any federalized order to do so. And there is no nationwide travel restriction that I'm aware of. That absence of federal guidance is I think what the story was focusing on, not necessarily the traffic volume itself.

[Shyster]

There is no nationwide travel restriction. The fall in flights has been through lack of demand.

That site does not filter cargo flights. It's just reporting ADSB transponder data. That means that a lot of the aircraft on the map are private aircraft, because ADSB for general aviation became mandatory at the beginning of this year. The US in general has a much greater number of private aircraft than most other countries do, and a bunch of the blips on that map are going to be people going up for a flight in their Cessna 172 or the like.

[Orlando Penguin]

A friend posted a story from St. Louis that Lambert had 864 passengers TOTAL for all of Tuesday.

Another friend’s father works for United and she told me that airlines have greatly reduced their schedules (as evidenced by cancellations y’all are receiving) and that once we return to normalcy, airlines may be slow to react to the explosive demand.

[shoeshine boy]

I've seen a few people predict that once leisure travel resumes that it'll be crazy expensive and only for upper class/rich people.
I disagree. I don't necessarily think that flights will be crazy cheap but I think airlines will need to do things like give passengers a checked bag for "free" in order to lure back the common flier.

[NTP66]

Source of the post I've seen a few people predict that once leisure travel resumes that it'll be crazy expensive and only for upper class/rich people.

That makes zero sense whatsoever. Airlines are going to have to lure people with lower fares to get the numbers that they were seeing, and that's just to start, IMO.

[RonnieFranchise]

Frankly I think there will be a not insignificant number of people who will be so frightened by this that it will be years, if ever, before they are comfortable getting back in a metal tube with 150 randos. I think there's going to be a huge bubble in demand for restaurants and local stuff people have been missing but travel, where you don't know what the person next to you on the plane or the last person to stay in the hotel room had, I'm not so sure.

We are considering going out to Vancouver Island this fall but I dunno....

[nocera]

How did the airline industry rebound after 9/11? My guess is it will be similar to that. It's going to take a while until people feel safe again.

[MrKennethTKangaroo]

i mean if we figure out who exactly is "safe" (i.e. who has the antibodies or whatever), i think travel will be fine

but until then, just a lot of uncertainty.

[shoeshine boy]

I've always thought of airplanes as flying petri dishes. I think my fear level will depend on if there's a cure, vaccine, etc.

[robbiestoupe]

Airplanes are one thing but cruise ships are another level of petri dish. They already had issues with multitudes of people getting violently ill before covid-19, can't imagine they rebound well after this.

[nocera]

Airplanes are one thing but cruise ships are another level of petri dish. They already had issues with multitudes of people getting violently ill before covid-19, can't imagine they rebound well after this.

Cruise people don't give a ****. They're pissed they can't cruise right now.

[robbiestoupe]

Airplanes are one thing but cruise ships are another level of petri dish. They already had issues with multitudes of people getting violently ill before covid-19, can't imagine they rebound well after this.

Cruise people don't give a ****. They're pissed they can't cruise right now.

The Venn diagram of cruise people and boomers that are pissed are two concentric circles.

[shoeshine boy]

Airplanes are one thing but cruise ships are another level of petri dish. They already had issues with multitudes of people getting violently ill before covid-19, can't imagine they rebound well after this.

and yet they just keep making those ships bigger and bigger.

[NTP66]

You should check out the Discovery and Science Channel shows on how those new cruise ships are constructed. It's nothing short of amazing.

[tifosi77]

How did the airline industry rebound after 9/11? My guess is it will be similar to that. It's going to take a while until people feel safe again.

It took the better part of a decade before the airline industry began rebounding after 9/11, but not before there were thousands of industry layoffs; several of the more storied airlines went belly up, and tens of billions of dollars were lost

For context, air travel was halted for three days following the attacks, but the real lasting impact was from passenger anxiety/fear and the implementation of 'security theater' at airports.

But Shyster and NTP are the resident 5AF experts on civil aviation, I'd defer to their takes on this.

[NTP66]

I'd definitely have to defer to Shyster on this. He's more in tune with the industry than I am, for sure. I don't think it will take as long to rebound, personally, but it all comes down to a vaccine becoming available.

[Shyster]

I'm certainly not an industry insider, but I think this will be way worse that 9/11. It's not just a question of whether airline flights are safe, it's a question of whether airports, hotels, taxis, and all of the other parts of the travel industry are also safe. Plus, it's whether the destination is safe as well. I mean, if I could promise anyone here that the flight would be 100% virus-free, would anyone be willing to fly into some place like northern Italy right now? Not only that, but there may be (and I would say should be) strong restrictions on international travel at least, and at a minimum stuff like temperature checks for domestic travel.

I hate to say it because I love aviation, but I think it will take years for the airline and travel industries to get anyone close to where they were before this all started.

[dodint]

Airplanes are one thing but cruise ships are another level of petri dish. They already had issues with multitudes of people getting violently ill before covid-19, can't imagine they rebound well after this.

Cruise people don't give a ****. They're pissed they can't cruise right now.

The Venn diagram of cruise people and boomers that are pissed are two concentric circles.

My Mom told me today she is upset her December cruise might be cancelled.

[shafnutz05]

How did the airline industry rebound after 9/11? My guess is it will be similar to that. It's going to take a while until people feel safe again.

It took the better part of a decade before the airline industry began rebounding after 9/11, but not before there were thousands of industry layoffs; several of the more storied airlines went belly up, and tens of billions of dollars were lost

For context, air travel was halted for three days following the attacks, but the real lasting impact was from passenger anxiety/fear and the implementation of 'security theater' at airports.

But Shyster and NTP are the resident 5AF experts on civil aviation, I'd defer to their takes on this.

I often forget that TWA was still around in the 1990s--my brain often thinks it went the way of the dodo in the 1980s. It was already on its way out in early 2001, but AA laid off pretty much all of the legacy TWA employees after 9/11.

[NTP66]

AA finally processed my refund, so I called Citi to have the money sent to me (closed that card months ago). I ask if they can send me the money, and she's like yeah, we can cut you a check. I then ask if they can just send it electronically. "Yes, we can... but I just processed the check". Dafuq, lady? Pay attention.