5AF's 2018-19 Premier Pittsburgh Super Panthers Football Thread (and Basketball)

the wicked child
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Postby the wicked child » Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:53 pm

Well, Pitt may stink, but at least their Mascot isn't Gritty. There's my silver lining.

Dickie Dunn
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Postby Dickie Dunn » Mon Sep 24, 2018 2:01 pm

Hey DD:
Duzz on playing more sub-package defense.

“Switching personnel is not really an option. … Our 3rd down stuff is really for pass. If you get into that on 1st or 2nd down … *shakes head*”

Said they’d be “running it off the goalpost."
Going to continue to run out a base 4-3 against 3 or 4 wide.
what is the worst that could happen? would the run defense finish 103rd out of 130 (like the pass defense did in 2017) or 127 out of 128 (like they did in 2016)?

I can only imagine the chaos that would ensue if ziese was replaced with.....some defensive back.
They already have one no cover skills DB masquerading as a LB. Why not make it two?

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Postby Morkle » Mon Sep 24, 2018 2:37 pm

It's weird that this day and age people are still protecting for the run, but passing in college anyways feels like the ultimate route for a majority of teams.

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Postby Stoosh » Tue Sep 25, 2018 8:05 am

It's weird that this day and age people are still protecting for the run, but passing in college anyways feels like the ultimate route for a majority of teams.
Playing off Dokish's numbers, I did a little more research in part because I have no life but also because I wanted to see if there was any evidence to support the idea that Narduzzi's scheme doesn't work in the ACC. The insinuation I've heard is that ACC teams run pass-heavier offenses than what he saw in the Big 10.

I started by comparing Pitt's total defense and pass defense to the rest of the ACC teams over the last two years (2016 and 2017). I'm still in the process of putting some of it together, but some of the numbers I've seen may be an even bigger indictment of Pitt's/Narduzzi's defense.

In short, if the ACC is indeed more up-tempo/pass-heavier (I haven't looked at offensive output to corroborate this), 75-80% of the rest of the conference doesn't seem to struggle with it the way Pitt has the last two years. You don't see across the ACC what you see in the Big 12, where pretty much everyone's pass defense numbers suffer because everyone there throws the ball so much.

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Postby slappybrown » Tue Sep 25, 2018 9:54 am

This isn't rocket science imo:

1) Play your nickel package. Stop with this delta nonsense where you play an extra safety. The safeties have demonstrated over and over that they can't cover. Stop it. Play an extra corner and do it on first and second down and play the 4-2-5.

2) Stop playing Briggs, period.

3) Enough with Hendrix. Because there is zero chance they are going to do #1, its obvious that this defense can pass as functional if and only if they get pressure from the ends. In 4 games, Hendrix has 12 tackles, .5 TFL, ZERO SACKS and a grand total of 2 QB hurries. Play Patrick Jones over him, who is has the same number of hurries and an actual sack despite playing 1/3 of the snaps Hendrix has if I had to guess. We've been waiting on this guy for 3 years to do anything and he's gone after this year; enough is enough. Seems to be the classic "looks great coming off the bus" guy but is a cipher on the field.

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Postby Morkle » Tue Sep 25, 2018 10:39 am

This isn't rocket science imo:

1) Play your nickel package. Stop with this delta nonsense where you play an extra safety. The safeties have demonstrated over and over that they can't cover. Stop it. Play an extra corner and do it on first and second down and play the 4-2-5.

2) Stop playing Briggs, period.

3) Enough with Hendrix. Because there is zero chance they are going to do #1, its obvious that this defense can pass as functional if and only if they get pressure from the ends. In 4 games, Hendrix has 12 tackles, .5 TFL, ZERO SACKS and a grand total of 2 QB hurries. Play Patrick Jones over him, who is has the same number of hurries and an actual sack despite playing 1/3 of the snaps Hendrix has if I had to guess. We've been waiting on this guy for 3 years to do anything and he's gone after this year; enough is enough. Seems to be the classic "looks great coming off the bus" guy but is a cipher on the field.
You made me think of a Mike Birbiglia joke about Kenny G: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0MARR3T ... be&t=3m20s

Narduzzi thinks his defense is killing it, even though it sucks, and no matter what he changes to, it's still gonna suck.

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Postby slappybrown » Tue Sep 25, 2018 11:40 am

This is just astounding:
The bigger problem on Saturday in terms of Pitt’s pass defense wasn’t the Delta, though; it was the base package on early downs. When facing Pitt’s base defense on first and second down, Elliott completed 13-of-19 for 209 yards and both of his touchdown passes.

Elliott’s completion percentage on early downs was lower than his total for the game, but his average yards per attempt and yards per completion against the base defense on first and second down were higher than his game totals.

And those ypa and ypc numbers for Elliott were better against the base on early downs than they were against the Delta.

What’s the answer for those woes? Pitt has to find a defensive personnel grouping and/or package that can be effective against the pass on early downs.Given Narduzzi’s dedication to stopping the run, such a package might not exist, but if the staff can’t find an answer to that question soon, the high-powered offenses of UCF and Syracuse - Pitt’s next two opponents - will present major issues.
Image

How can every other college and pro team have a nickel package with a CB in the place of a LB but we are somehow too smart to do so.

@Troy Loney I dont know how much longer I can hold out.

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Postby Troy Loney » Tue Sep 25, 2018 11:44 am

Pitt should just become a basketball only school and try to rebuild the big east.

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Postby robbiestoupe » Tue Sep 25, 2018 11:58 am

Last time I checked, Pitt was just as bad, if not worse, at basketball.

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Postby Dickie Dunn » Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:00 pm

This is just astounding:
The bigger problem on Saturday in terms of Pitt’s pass defense wasn’t the Delta, though; it was the base package on early downs. When facing Pitt’s base defense on first and second down, Elliott completed 13-of-19 for 209 yards and both of his touchdown passes.

Elliott’s completion percentage on early downs was lower than his total for the game, but his average yards per attempt and yards per completion against the base defense on first and second down were higher than his game totals.

And those ypa and ypc numbers for Elliott were better against the base on early downs than they were against the Delta.

What’s the answer for those woes? Pitt has to find a defensive personnel grouping and/or package that can be effective against the pass on early downs.Given Narduzzi’s dedication to stopping the run, such a package might not exist, but if the staff can’t find an answer to that question soon, the high-powered offenses of UCF and Syracuse - Pitt’s next two opponents - will present major issues.
Image

How can every other college and pro team have a nickel package with a CB in the place of a LB but we are somehow too smart to do so.

@Troy Loney I dont know how much longer I can hold out.
Come on slappy. You can do it. Stoosh is already here. Narduzzi is a dolt. Search your feelings; you know it to be true!

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Postby slappybrown » Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:02 pm

They played a bunch of nickel against Syracuse last year, so I know it exists, but the reluctance to get out of base on first or second down against spread teams in 2018 is just inexplicable.

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Postby skullman80 » Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:09 pm

I'd be fully on the get rid of Nardog train, but somehow Pitt would find a way to hire a worse replacement.

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Postby Dickie Dunn » Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:12 pm

Should have promoted Matt Canada.

I don't know who I would hire because I don't have college football assistants memorized, but I'd probably look at someone with a defensive background who is accustomed to having to stop offenses in conferences that aren't the Big 10.

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Postby Morkle » Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:22 pm

I'd be fully on the get rid of Nardog train, but somehow Pitt would find a way to hire a worse replacement.
I mean what is truly worse. They haven't hired a coach that was worth firing Wanny yet. If we're talking losing season, it really doesn't matter - they're not really winning anything of note now.

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Postby slappybrown » Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:39 pm

No more assistants. Spend the money on someone who is or was a HC.

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Postby Dickie Dunn » Tue Sep 25, 2018 1:02 pm

No more assistants. Spend the money on someone who is or was a HC.
Given the amount of money it would take to buyout Narduzzi after that incredibly stupid extension after last season they'll be hiring Bill Cherpak.

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Postby Freddy Rumsen » Tue Sep 25, 2018 1:25 pm

Bruce Feldman and Stewart Mandel talk about the Pitt situation on their podcast and they are both very surprised at Narduzzi's lack of recruiting ability, which they blame on the fact that Urban Meyer and Franklin take all the recruits.

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Postby Dickie Dunn » Tue Sep 25, 2018 1:31 pm

Probably because Urban Meyer and James Franklin don’t suck at the main purpose of their job: just win baby.

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Postby slappybrown » Tue Sep 25, 2018 1:51 pm

The recruiting thing is not accurate imo. 2015 was by far the worst year, but he had one month to shore up the class after Chryst left and kept Whitehead, so the number is a bit deceiving.

Team A: 65, 29, 35, 36
Team B: 37, 35, 38, 40
Team C: 38, 45, 36, 35

Leaving aside 2015, Team A has out-recruited Team B and C by Rivals' measure.

Pitt is Team A, and B is Wisky and C is OK State. OK State has won 10 games each year in 15, 16, and 17. Wisconsin has won 10, 11, and 13. And I know you can't point to the records in 2016 as having been derived from the recruiting classes they pulled in 15/16, and results are going to trail 2-3 years in from those classes.

This is why I keep saying that next year is his make or break. The non-con is @UPS, and all three of Delaware, Ohio, and UCF at home. The cross-over games are BC and Cuse; no Clemson or FSU. He will only have his own players, no Chryst holdovers, and he's recruiting at a level that other similarly situated P5 teams have used to turn in very good results. He'll have a starting QB with a full season under his belt. No excuses. 9 wins or more.

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Postby MrKennethTKangaroo » Tue Sep 25, 2018 1:55 pm

They played a bunch of nickel against Syracuse last year, so I know it exists, but the reluctance to get out of base on first or second down against spread teams in 2018 is just inexplicable.
not that anyone cares, but this is not a new thing. my first recollection of "dude, the linebacker and safety cant cover this wideout" was the fiesta bowl against Utah on January 1st 2005. in case you were wondering, January 1st 2005 was 5,015 days ago and approximately 160 games ago.

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Postby MrKennethTKangaroo » Tue Sep 25, 2018 2:02 pm

The recruiting thing is not accurate imo. 2015 was by far the worst year, but he had one month to shore up the class after Chryst left and kept Whitehead, so the number is a bit deceiving.

Team A: 65, 29, 35, 36
Team B: 37, 35, 38, 40
Team C: 38, 45, 36, 35

Leaving aside 2015, Team A has out-recruited Team B and C by Rivals' measure.

Pitt is Team A, and B is Wisky and C is OK State. OK State has won 10 games each year in 15, 16, and 17. Wisconsin has won 10, 11, and 13. And I know you can't point to the records in 2016 as having been derived from the recruiting classes they pulled in 15/16, and results are going to trail 2-3 years in from those classes.

This is why I keep saying that next year is his make or break. The non-con is @UPS, and all three of Delaware, Ohio, and UCF at home. The cross-over games are BC and Cuse; no Clemson or FSU. He will only have his own players, no Chryst holdovers, and he's recruiting at a level that other similarly situated P5 teams have used to turn in very good results. He'll have a starting QB with a full season under his belt. No excuses. 9 wins or more.
imo the "wait till next year because of the recruits" argument is not valid. the recruiting rankings have been decent enough, but talent rises to the top fairly quickly, no matter if it is OK State or pitt or ohio state. if was apparent that whitehead was good after like 4 games. it was apparent that aaron Donald was good when he was a true frosh. it is also apparent that if you cant beat out briggs or motely, you may be bad.

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Postby shafnutz05 » Tue Sep 25, 2018 2:06 pm

I am actually a little surprised at the recruiting criticism of Narduzzi. He is already fighting a major uphill battle being sandwiched between two behemoths. I actually thought being in the mid-30s or so was a fairly respectable showing <shrug>

I mean...how high do you realistically expect him to be able to carry that ranking? There is a ceiling there IMO.

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Postby MrKennethTKangaroo » Tue Sep 25, 2018 2:08 pm

his recruiting strategy has been to go find hidden gems with good offers but not gr8 offers. its a good strategy imo.

the problem isn't the quality of offers or recruiting rankings, the problem is getting these guys onto the field and proving to be actual talents.

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Postby slappybrown » Tue Sep 25, 2018 2:12 pm

The recruiting thing is not accurate imo. 2015 was by far the worst year, but he had one month to shore up the class after Chryst left and kept Whitehead, so the number is a bit deceiving.

Team A: 65, 29, 35, 36
Team B: 37, 35, 38, 40
Team C: 38, 45, 36, 35

Leaving aside 2015, Team A has out-recruited Team B and C by Rivals' measure.

Pitt is Team A, and B is Wisky and C is OK State. OK State has won 10 games each year in 15, 16, and 17. Wisconsin has won 10, 11, and 13. And I know you can't point to the records in 2016 as having been derived from the recruiting classes they pulled in 15/16, and results are going to trail 2-3 years in from those classes.

This is why I keep saying that next year is his make or break. The non-con is @UPS, and all three of Delaware, Ohio, and UCF at home. The cross-over games are BC and Cuse; no Clemson or FSU. He will only have his own players, no Chryst holdovers, and he's recruiting at a level that other similarly situated P5 teams have used to turn in very good results. He'll have a starting QB with a full season under his belt. No excuses. 9 wins or more.
imo the "wait till next year because of the recruits" argument is not valid. the recruiting rankings have been decent enough, but talent rises to the top fairly quickly, no matter if it is OK State or pitt or ohio state. if was apparent that whitehead was good after like 4 games. it was apparent that aaron Donald was good when he was a true frosh. it is also apparent that if you cant beat out briggs or motely, you may be bad.
There is plenty that I agree with here, but teams are much better served by playing men in their early 20s rather than teens, especially when you dont have high-end talent in the form of 5-star recruits, which Pitt doesn't have. My position is not "wait till next year because of the recruits"; its more that next year presents favorable conditions for his vision (whether in recruiting, player development, coaching, strategy,experience, and at the most important position) such that if you don't deliver then, its unlikely you ever will.

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Postby slappybrown » Tue Sep 25, 2018 2:16 pm

I am actually a little surprised at the recruiting criticism of Narduzzi. He is already fighting a major uphill battle being sandwiched between two behemoths. I actually thought being in the mid-30s or so was a fairly respectable showing <shrug>

I mean...how high do you realistically expect him to be able to carry that ranking? There is a ceiling there IMO.
Wannstadt was regularly in the low to mid-20s. That's probably their general ceiling. Win one more of the top-end local recruits they missed out on in the last couple years -- whether to ND, OSU, or UPS -- and he probably has a couple rankings in the 20s.

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