Investing, Stock Market and Retirement Planning Thread

columbia
Posts: 34731
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 10:23 am
Location: South Baldwin Yinzer Strokefest

Investing, Stock Market and Retirement Planning Thread

Postby columbia » Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:07 am

Since not a homeowner, I rely on my Roth as the big time emergency insurance - losing my job. My boss would kill me if I left, so I consider the chance to be < 0.05%

DigitalGypsy66
Posts: 19681
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 7:33 pm
Location: Iodine State

Investing, Stock Market and Retirement Planning Thread

Postby DigitalGypsy66 » Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:25 am

It has a whopping .030% interest rate. Basically nothing. :lol:

MrKennethTKangaroo
Posts: 12408
Joined: Sat Mar 28, 2015 3:50 pm

Investing, Stock Market and Retirement Planning Thread

Postby MrKennethTKangaroo » Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:27 am

ya you should probably look into an online savings account and increase your return by 32x

NTP66
Posts: 60742
Joined: Sun Oct 04, 2015 2:00 pm
Location: FUCΚ! Even in the future nothing works.

Investing, Stock Market and Retirement Planning Thread

Postby NTP66 » Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:29 am

It has a whopping .030% interest rate. Basically nothing. :lol:
:lol: Check out DepositAccounts.com when you get a chance. It's a great resource for bank/CD rates, and Ken posts stuff continually.

dodint
Posts: 59160
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:39 pm
Location: Cheer up, bіtch!
Contact:

Investing, Stock Market and Retirement Planning Thread

Postby dodint » Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:37 am

I wish PA did prize-linked savings accounts. I'd put some of that emergency fund kind of money into one.

columbia
Posts: 34731
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 10:23 am
Location: South Baldwin Yinzer Strokefest

Investing, Stock Market and Retirement Planning Thread

Postby columbia » Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:49 am

Back to the infamous Chinese stock market issue. To refresh your memories, I had commented that companies listed on the Shanghai exchange were being added to certain emerging markets indexes. Fast forward a few years and most major international/global funds now have also added them. Whether you like it or not, you now probably own some of Tencent Holdings, Alibaba and Baidu, etc.

NTP66
Posts: 60742
Joined: Sun Oct 04, 2015 2:00 pm
Location: FUCΚ! Even in the future nothing works.

Investing, Stock Market and Retirement Planning Thread

Postby NTP66 » Wed Jan 24, 2018 6:47 am

Among five celebrity business moguls, 32% [of 18-44 year olds polled, ] said they would be most likely to take investing advice from Winfrey compared to 15% choosing Trump, in a poll conducted by SurveyMonkey for Acorns, the microinvesting app that invests your spare change from credit card purchases.

Sheryl Sandberg - 4%
Jay-Z - 5%
Trump - 15%
Oprah - 32%
Warren Buffet - 44%
TL;DR - 56% of the people polled are dumb.

MrKennethTKangaroo
Posts: 12408
Joined: Sat Mar 28, 2015 3:50 pm

Investing, Stock Market and Retirement Planning Thread

Postby MrKennethTKangaroo » Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:40 am

capital one raised the rate on its money market account from 1.3% to 1.4%. HOLLER!!!!

shmenguin
Posts: 19041
Joined: Thu Mar 26, 2015 2:37 pm
Location: people notice my car when its shined up

Investing, Stock Market and Retirement Planning Thread

Postby shmenguin » Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:22 am

capital one raised the rate on its money market account from 1.3% to 1.4%. HOLLER!!!!
When I was young and poor, I had an ING savings account before Cap One swooped them up. It had a 4.5% return. I can't even fathom that now that I have a little money to save.

NTP66
Posts: 60742
Joined: Sun Oct 04, 2015 2:00 pm
Location: FUCΚ! Even in the future nothing works.

Investing, Stock Market and Retirement Planning Thread

Postby NTP66 » Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:29 am

Source of the post When I was young and poor, I had an ING savings account before Cap One swooped them up. It had a 4.5% return. I can't even fathom that now that I have a little money to save.
It dropped to .75% very quickly, which is about when I dropped them. Marcus (GS Bank) has been pretty good to me lately.

columbia
Posts: 34731
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 10:23 am
Location: South Baldwin Yinzer Strokefest

Investing, Stock Market and Retirement Planning Thread

Postby columbia » Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:29 am

I made my first Roth contribution for 2018. I find it easier to buy in that account, if I just do 4-5 chunks throughout the year.
That doesn't make sense, probably, but it works for me.

NTP66
Posts: 60742
Joined: Sun Oct 04, 2015 2:00 pm
Location: FUCΚ! Even in the future nothing works.

Investing, Stock Market and Retirement Planning Thread

Postby NTP66 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:57 pm

Today was certainly not the day to update Quicken. Yowza.

columbia
Posts: 34731
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 10:23 am
Location: South Baldwin Yinzer Strokefest

Investing, Stock Market and Retirement Planning Thread

Postby columbia » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:07 pm

Note that probably 99% of the shares you own did not go down in value, in relation to what you originally paid for them.

Tomas
Posts: 3444
Joined: Sun Apr 05, 2015 10:28 am

Investing, Stock Market and Retirement Planning Thread

Postby Tomas » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:33 pm

Note that probably 99% of the shares you own did not go down in value, in relation to what you originally paid for them.
Unless you put that nice contribution into your kids' college account on Friday, all while congratulating yourself that you did not do it earlier that week... :evil:

willeyeam
Posts: 39565
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:49 pm
Location: hodgepodge of nothingness

Investing, Stock Market and Retirement Planning Thread

Postby willeyeam » Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:18 pm

Today was interesting to watch from 3:00-4:00

NTP66
Posts: 60742
Joined: Sun Oct 04, 2015 2:00 pm
Location: FUCΚ! Even in the future nothing works.

Investing, Stock Market and Retirement Planning Thread

Postby NTP66 » Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:42 am

Source of the post Unless you put that nice contribution into your kids' college account on Friday
I'm scheduled to do that today, oddly enough. Nice. :)

robbiestoupe
Posts: 11556
Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2015 3:27 pm

Investing, Stock Market and Retirement Planning Thread

Postby robbiestoupe » Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:20 am

As a "pension", my company will put the equivalent of 3% of our salary in our 401k account as long as you are with the company through the end of the year. They put in 2017's portion last week. Bad timing.

Tomas
Posts: 3444
Joined: Sun Apr 05, 2015 10:28 am

Investing, Stock Market and Retirement Planning Thread

Postby Tomas » Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:45 pm

I am just preparing to teach my Saturday EMBA finance classes, and I created this summary that should help you make the stocks vs bonds choices for various maturities.

*AVERAGE* Stock HOLDING returns (S&P 500 including dividends) vs. LT Govt. bonds for various windows if the investment started in 1928 or later, until 2016. Enjoy!:
Image
Years in the picture describe the ENDING year of the investment. For example: The best 30-year horizon annual rate of return for stocks was 13.63% per year for investment that was held from beginning of 1970 to end of 1999. So, your $1 invested would have grown to $1*(1.1363)^30 = $46.22

The "Stock minus Bonds" is the difference in annualized returns for investments ending in a particular year. For example: For 30-year investment horizon, the worst relative stock performance happened in 2010. In terms of average returns, investment in stocks held from beginning of 1981 till end of 2010 outperformed the investment in bonds by "only" 1.7%, because average stock return was 10.61%, while average bond return was 8.91% per year. So, your $1 invested in stocks would have grown to $1*(1.1061)^30 = $20.60, while $1 invested in bonds would get you to $1*(1.0891)^30 = $12.94. Still, even in this WORST investment horizon, stocks would have made you more than 50% richer...

columbia
Posts: 34731
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 10:23 am
Location: South Baldwin Yinzer Strokefest

Investing, Stock Market and Retirement Planning Thread

Postby columbia » Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:55 pm

I don’t believe that most retail investors have the stomach for 30 year bonds; right or wrong.

NTP66
Posts: 60742
Joined: Sun Oct 04, 2015 2:00 pm
Location: FUCΚ! Even in the future nothing works.

Investing, Stock Market and Retirement Planning Thread

Postby NTP66 » Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:58 pm

Bonds as their entire AA? I don't see any scenario in which that would be useful unless you were nearing retirement.

Tomas
Posts: 3444
Joined: Sun Apr 05, 2015 10:28 am

Investing, Stock Market and Retirement Planning Thread

Postby Tomas » Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:07 pm

Bonds as their entire AA? I don't see any scenario in which that would be useful unless you were nearing retirement.
Surprisingly, there are quite a lot of people (including some well-known financial economists) who either invest or advocate for (almost) strictly LT Governmental Bonds investment.

The table I created is based on US Treasury 10-year bonds being bought and sold at the end of every year (in order to keep the constant maturity). I did it primarily because the main topic of my next lecture is "risk premiums" - and so comparing stocks to LT Governmental bonds allows me to do that.

However, knowing that risk premiums for investment rated corporate bonds are not that big, I can - I think - reasonably safely assert that stocks would beat even corporate bonds for the vast majority of possible 30-year investment horizons...

NTP66
Posts: 60742
Joined: Sun Oct 04, 2015 2:00 pm
Location: FUCΚ! Even in the future nothing works.

Investing, Stock Market and Retirement Planning Thread

Postby NTP66 » Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:12 pm

Source of the post Surprisingly, there are quite a lot of people (including some well-known financial economists) who either invest or advocate for (almost) strictly LT Governmental Bonds investment.
Based on all of the reading that I've done over the years, I honestly would not have guessed that.

Tomas
Posts: 3444
Joined: Sun Apr 05, 2015 10:28 am

Investing, Stock Market and Retirement Planning Thread

Postby Tomas » Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:18 pm

Source of the post Surprisingly, there are quite a lot of people (including some well-known financial economists) who either invest or advocate for (almost) strictly LT Governmental Bonds investment.
Based on all of the reading that I've done over the years, I honestly would not have guessed that.
One of the "well-known financial economists" is Zvi Bodie who happens to be the author of (one of?) the most frequently used investment textbooks in the US (Bodie-Kane-Marcus: Investment). Just google him, and you can read all about his "TIPS" investment strategy.

(I don't agree with him at all, but I also don't draw all those huge sums in annual royalties... :) )

columbia
Posts: 34731
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2015 10:23 am
Location: South Baldwin Yinzer Strokefest

Investing, Stock Market and Retirement Planning Thread

Postby columbia » Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:20 pm

Yeah, Ziv is the one who convinced me of the importance of TIPS. All of my “bonds” are in TIAA Traditional, but plan a heavy TIPS allocation in retirement.

Miami Vice
Posts: 1505
Joined: Thu Mar 26, 2015 10:48 am

Investing, Stock Market and Retirement Planning Thread

Postby Miami Vice » Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:59 pm

Cross post from current events
Yeah, I was reading about that inverse VIX etf last night. No thanks.
@miami vice. Do yinz ever dabble in such things?
Yes, to the extent that one of the large institutions who participates in a securities lending program holds it. Anything with a ton of volatility is going to create some degree of short interest. The cost to borrow this one was pretty high before trading halted.

But when you consider the types of clients we deal with - government pensions, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds - they aren't the kind likely to hold something like that. I imagine anything being shorted out there was lent by a mutual fund with some kind of volatility goal.

In general ETFs are a big growth area for securities lending programs. Some ETFs themselves have been in demand shorts (like ticker HYG has been) so we are lending the actual ETF. Lots of money is going into these more passive investments. A pension might be choosing to buy IWM instead of hiring a manager to buy a basket of Russell 2000 stocks. In that sense we likely aren't going to get as much value out of lending IWM as we would by lending the dozen or however many in demand shorts comprise the index.

But we are also adding ETFs as lenders just like we'd lend for a mutual fund. While the underlying shares are just sitting there we are able to lend them out, with returns depending on what it tracks. Signing ETFs up to lend is becoming more important as our traditional clients turn to buying ETFs (which trade like an equity) and mutual funds (which are unlendable). In the case of XIV (the inverse Vix ETF) it's underlying assets I guess are futures contracts, which wouldn't be lent.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: LeopardLetang and 116 guests