Investing, Stock Market and Retirement Planning Thread

NTP66
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Postby NTP66 » Fri Jan 06, 2023 2:50 pm

35,000 tax free movement is better than 0 tax free and taking a penalty, but I agree.
Yeah, like I said, good idea but bad execution. I'm generally annoyed when the government tells you what you can do with the money you've earned and saved. See also: IRA contribution limits.
DFSA limits were even worse. Still don't think those have been bumped.

mac5155
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Postby mac5155 » Fri Jan 06, 2023 3:30 pm

Yeah we hit $5k in like May lol.

NTP66
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Postby NTP66 » Thu Jan 12, 2023 8:03 am

TIL that the backdoor Roth loophole survived the 'Build Back Better Act', so I can continue moving forward with them. I was going to make contributions for both 2022 and 2023 today and then convert it all so that I didn't miss out on the benefit one last time, but I'll just stick with the 2022 contribution now.

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Postby skullman80 » Thu Jan 12, 2023 8:42 am

It's nice being in the green for once...even though it's only the 2nd week of the year haha.

NTP66
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Postby NTP66 » Thu Jan 12, 2023 8:45 am

It's nice being in the green for once...even though it's only the 2nd week of the year haha.
After last year? Hell yeah.

robbiestoupe
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Postby robbiestoupe » Thu Jan 12, 2023 8:50 am

I had one 401k account lose 14% last year while the other (thankfully smaller) account lose 21%. But the three years prior were all above 15% gains and as high as 35%, so I can't complain too much.

NTP66
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Postby NTP66 » Thu Jan 12, 2023 8:58 am

Last year was the first negative year overall that I can recall since 2008 or 2009? And even then, I'm not sure that I was negative during that crash. That's why you have to just move past it unless you're on the verge of retirement... in which, you'd be a **** dope if you were -15%+ last year, because that means your AA was ****.

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Postby skullman80 » Thu Jan 12, 2023 9:10 am

Yeah losing 15% last year wasn't bad if you average out the years prior. Plus as NTP said if you are closer to retirement and you are still being that aggressive then that's one you. You should be safer the closer you get to retirement.

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Postby robbiestoupe » Thu Jan 12, 2023 9:21 am

Last year was the first negative year overall that I can recall since 2008 or 2009? And even then, I'm not sure that I was negative during that crash. That's why you have to just move past it unless you're on the verge of retirement... in which, you'd be a **** dope if you were -15%+ last year, because that means your AA was ****.
I hit negatives in 2018, around 7-8%. Surprised you weren't hit by this. I know my dad was, he may have been a bit too aggressive back then trying to retire a couple years early and it ended up forcing him to push retirement back a year or so.

I've only tracked my stuff back to 2016 when I really started to care about this stuff, so maybe I was good back to 2009 as well.

NTP66
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Postby NTP66 » Thu Jan 12, 2023 9:28 am

Last year was the first negative year overall that I can recall since 2008 or 2009? And even then, I'm not sure that I was negative during that crash. That's why you have to just move past it unless you're on the verge of retirement... in which, you'd be a **** dope if you were -15%+ last year, because that means your AA was ****.
I hit negatives in 2018, around 7-8%. Surprised you weren't hit by this. I know my dad was, he may have been a bit too aggressive back then trying to retire a couple years early and it ended up forcing him to push retirement back a year or so.

I've only tracked my stuff back to 2016 when I really started to care about this stuff, so maybe I was good back to 2009 as well.
Perhaps I was? I honestly don't recall, and of course can no longer check because of many many accounts have changed since then.

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Postby NTP66 » Thu Jan 12, 2023 9:32 am

So I logged back into my TIAA account to look up my rate of return via the quarterly statements for 2018:

-.86%
3.2%
6.04%
12.07%

So yeah, well positive in 2018.

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Postby robbiestoupe » Thu Jan 12, 2023 9:34 am

So I logged back into my TIAA account to look up my rate of return via the quarterly statements for 2018:

-.86%
3.2%
6.04%
12.07%

So yeah, well positive in 2018.
:thumb:

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Postby NTP66 » Sat Jan 14, 2023 9:33 am

Backdoor Roth conversions complete, so I'm all set for another year. Hopefully they keep this loophole around.

mac5155
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Postby mac5155 » Sat Jan 14, 2023 9:59 am

Can you ELI5 what this is. I can't find a good explanation online..

NTP66
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Postby NTP66 » Sat Jan 14, 2023 10:05 am

Can you ELI5 what this is. I can't find a good explanation online..
It's to get around the ridiculous regulations surrounding Roth IRA contributions, where higher salary = lower limits. In a nutshell, you contribute to your Traditional IRA (balance on any Traditional, SEP, or SIMPLE IRA that you have must be $0 on 12/31 or you'll have to deal with taxes). Since there's no income limit there, you can contribute $6k for tax year 2022 ($6500 for tax year 2023). Once that completes, you go into your account and convert it to a Roth IRA. This bypasses the MAGI restrictions of contributing directly to a Roth IRA. This is the site I've used for years on guidance, and I've been doing this for a long time without issue.

mac5155
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Postby mac5155 » Sat Jan 14, 2023 11:03 am

So come tax time, do you deduct the $6k?

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Postby mac5155 » Sat Jan 14, 2023 11:04 am

Oh. $218k for mfj. Nevermind :lol:

NTP66
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Postby NTP66 » Sat Jan 14, 2023 11:12 am

So come tax time, do you deduct the $6k?
You have to file form 8606 for the contributions and conversions along with your returns, but that should be it.

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Postby MrKennethTKangaroo » Mon Jan 16, 2023 10:55 am

No one in real life cares about what i have to say about markets, so ill shame my thoughts with you jamokes.

I’m going on the record saying that 2023 is going to suck more than we expect both economically and in terms of stock market returns. Seems like every tom dick and harry are saying that there’s going to be a tiny, temporary recession followed by a return to steady GDP growth. So everyone’s take on the economy is that we are going to have a slight economic hiccup then back to normal.

On the market side, doesn’t seem like anyone is predicted negative returns. Most predictions seem like they are modest gains, maybe enough to earn back last years’ losses, maybe not. But not a lot of doom and gloom for stock market returns.

So essentially, everyone seems to agree that the impending troubles are transitory. Just like the talking point was inflation was transitory. Well, ya boy kangaroo is officially concerned because once consensus is achieved in market/economic prognostication, then you might as well just do the opposite.

I have no idea what part of the economy will go kaboom and cause problems in 2023. Probably not inflation, probably not supply chain issues, probably not energy, probably not housing. I just don’t know what.

If i was to take a shot in the dark, its a possible bubble in either semiconductor investment or electric vehicle investment. I read that there are like $500 billion worth of announced semiconductor related projects over the past few years in ‘Merica alone. That seems like a lot of money, and i hope there is enough to demand to satisfy all this supply. And there’s also billions and billions of announced projects for EVs and battery production.

Or maybe its just impending layoffs becuase everyone hired too many people during the recession.


So hold on to your butts.

Troy Loney
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Postby Troy Loney » Mon Jan 16, 2023 10:57 am

The fed is going to wreck housing in their war against inflation and low unemployment

NTP66
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Postby NTP66 » Mon Jan 16, 2023 10:59 am

Isn't it already wrecked?

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Postby MrKennethTKangaroo » Mon Jan 16, 2023 11:03 am

Housing is a good choice, but i tend to subscribe to the idea that housing already had its turn to ruin the economy, and lightning won’t strike twice in the span of 15 years. Plus, a correction in housing prices probably wouldn’t be a bad thing in most places. Mortgage rates have leveled off at a digestible level. Plus, I’m betting that a lot of institutional investors are going to cool to the idea of spending hundreds of millions on single family homes because Not every PE firm in the universe is getting unlimited debt at reasonable rates to invest in that crap.

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Postby MrKennethTKangaroo » Mon Jan 16, 2023 11:04 am

Isn't it already wrecked?
Haha, hell no.

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Postby Dickie Dunn » Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:10 am

Founders Fund, the venture capital firm co-founded by billionaire Peter Thiel, closed almost all of its eight-year bet on cryptocurrencies shortly before the market began to crash last year, generating about $1.8bn in returns.

The San Francisco-based fund made its first investment in bitcoin in early 2014 and went on to invest large sums in crypto. About two-thirds of its overall investment was used to buy bitcoin, said people close to the fund.

Founders Fund sold out of the vast majority of its entire cryptocurrency portfolio by the end of March 2022 — before the digital assets market became swept up in a crisis in May last year, said one of the people close to the fund.

The fund currently has no significant exposure to cryptocurrencies, the people said. The winding down of its crypto bet has not previously been reported. Founders Fund declined to comment.

Thiel, a big backer of Republican candidates and a supporter of former US president Donald Trump, was one of the earliest mainstream investors to buy large sums of bitcoin and has subsequently been loudly bullish on the digital currency.

In April 2022, about the same time that Founders Fund sold out of most of its cryptocurrency holdings, Thiel said he was optimistic about the future of bitcoin. He told a cryptocurrency conference in Miami that “we’re at the end of the fiat money regime” and suggested its price — which was then trading at about $44,000 — could increase by a factor of 100.

Thiel said JPMorgan chief executive Jamie Dimon and BlackRock boss Larry Fink “need to be allocating some of their money to bitcoin”, adding: “We need to push back on them.”
https://worldnewsera.com/news/finance/s ... ket-crash/

NTP66
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Postby NTP66 » Fri Jan 20, 2023 6:31 am

lolol

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