Investing, Stock Market and Retirement Planning Thread

[mikey]

I think it'll be a pretty 'soft' opening...but I'll assume if given an inch, most people will take a foot...if bars are open, people are going to be at them...

Germany looks to be one of the first to unveil plans on getting "back to normal"...I'll await our German correspondent, @Gaucho on the details...

Do you have an article on Germany's plans? I have a Germany trip planned for late October. I'd love to see what their plan looks like.

Once it gets beyond a wire story, I'm sure there will be more specifics...https://www.google.com/amp/s/beta.canad ... 1258a/amp/

[mikey]

There were early reports that this straight was not morphing at all, or at least morphing very, very slowly. Not sure if that actually helps, though.

It does. Because it means our ability to treat it (assuming we do, viral "cures" are not nearly as plentiful as their bacterial counterparts) won't have to adapt as much...less unknowns in terms of its mechanics...

No matter how you slice, I believe, there will be a second wave though...

[NTP66]

Source of the post No matter how you slice, I believe, there will be a second wave though...

No doubt, but hopefully it's a much, much smaller wave.

[Freddy Rumsen]

[count2infinity]

[NTP66]

Gonna need another few dozen weeks like that to recoup what I’ve lost in the last few months...

[Dickie Dunn]

The market ended DOWN?

[NTP66]

Down .12%. We’re ****.

[mac5155]

They're just toying with us now

[Dickie Dunn]

CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Wednesday that he and hedge fund billionaire David Tepper are not sure why the stock market has rallied in recent days while the coronavirus pandemic continues to upend daily life in the U.S.

“I spoke to Dave Tepper yesterday and we were both kind of marveling, ‘Jeez it’s been bullish. Why?’” Cramer recalled on “Squawk on the Street.”

“There’s a curious disconnect between when you speak to the companies, most of which are closed, and what’s going on in the market,” Cramer said. “I keep thinking maybe the market knows something we don’t.”

Cramer has often referenced interviewing Tepper in early February as a key moment in his understanding of the coronavirus. The Appaloosa Management founder said then the virus could be a “game changer” for financial markets.

The “Mad Money” host also expressed caution Tuesday about the market’s bounce, arguing he thought Wall Street was more optimistic about a return to something resembling normal life than most Americans.

“There is a happy days are here again Wall Street impression versus what I hear ... people saying, ‘Can I get a mask? How do I get a mask? Do I want an N95?’” Cramer said then. “I don’t want to risk it. I think America doesn’t want to risk it.”

Always good to know that I’m not alone in the confusion.

[Troy Loney]

"the market knows something we don't"

Absolute buffoon.

[count2infinity]

Well then...

[NTP66]

Buffet's preparing for a crash: https://www.ccn.com/30-million-stock-du ... ket-crash/

Buffett unloaded 869,103 shares of Bank of New York (NYSE:BK) on April 7 and 8 to add $30.9 million to Berkshire’s cash pile. The sale relieved Berkshire of its majority holding in BK.

Although it’s below all-time highs, BK stock has had an impressive recovery over the past few weeks. | Source: Yahoo Finance

Bank of New York stock is still down this year, but the stock rose a whopping 28% from its March 23 lows. The sale suggests that Mr. Buffett thinks this rally is coming to an end. He’s taking his own advice to: Be greedy when the market is fearful, and fearful when the market is greedy.

[count2infinity]

The crash is unfortunately coming. I don't think those first two little rebounds (one little one in early March, and the current one) are going to be more than blips at the end of this...

[NTP66]

Just gotta grin and bear it, unfortunately - unless you've got $30m that you're able to move to cash.

[Troy Loney]

Basically all of Europe except for Germany and Austria will be shut down for months, along with most major American cities.

Overall global economic activity, best case, drops 20%. We haven't even really broached the ripple effects of that drop.

[MrKennethTKangaroo]

Buffet's preparing for a crash: https://www.ccn.com/30-million-stock-du ... ket-crash/

Buffett unloaded 869,103 shares of Bank of New York (NYSE:BK) on April 7 and 8 to add $30.9 million to Berkshire’s cash pile. The sale relieved Berkshire of its majority holding in BK.

Although it’s below all-time highs, BK stock has had an impressive recovery over the past few weeks. | Source: Yahoo Finance

Bank of New York stock is still down this year, but the stock rose a whopping 28% from its March 23 lows. The sale suggests that Mr. Buffett thinks this rally is coming to an end. He’s taking his own advice to: Be greedy when the market is fearful, and fearful when the market is greedy.

Berkshire has $128 billion of cash on hand. $128 billion! A $30.9 million stock sale is 0.02% increase in cash. He owned 0.09% of bny mellon. Who gives a **** if he sold a truly inconsequential amount of stock?

As someone pointed out, whatever you are looking for in this pandemic, you will find it.

[mac5155]

And all of us petty folks cash is being held hostage in our 401ks

[grunthy]

Basically all of Europe except for Germany and Austria will be shut down for months, along with most major American cities.

Overall global economic activity, best case, drops 20%. We haven't even really broached the ripple effects of that drop.

For one quarter. Then there will be a rebound. You have been the pessimist in this entire situation, yet none of the worst case scenarios have played out yet. If Remdesivir or any of the trials that are releasing in the next weeks show efficacy, then why would everyone but shutdown for months?

[Troy Loney]

The health crisis and the Econmic crisis are two vastly different things.

[Troy Loney]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/busi ... virus.html

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... relief-fun

These developments, which I am pretty sure I've described, are the economic impacts that I find most likely to depress economic activity post-covid. It's not just that I hate Trump and want him to fail. I saw some expert opine that the economy should get back up to 80% in the rebound, I don't think we understand how bad that is.

[NTP66]

Do you believe this will be worse than the housing market crash in 2008? The dot com bubble in 2000?

[Troy Loney]

Do you believe this will be worse than the housing market crash in 2008? The dot com bubble in 2000?

Different I think. The 2008 crisis was a top down collapse where the market dropped like 30% in a couple days or something like that. I think the impact here is more gradual as corporations across the globe adjust to new 2020 projections. I'm not sure how much of that is priced into the market, but I think the stock market is going to be perhaps a bit sheltered from this. Companies can cut costs or scale back in the coming quarters to manage reduced demand.

But everything is so tenuous, if Trump does something stupid, like let the postal service crash, then you'll see domino effects.

[Troy Loney]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/11/jpmorga ... rkens.html

I don't work in credit risk, but I can tell you that the bank I work at is also preparing for significant consumer credit issues.

[Troy Loney]

This thread also discusses promising therapist drugs being used. But that is turning severe cases into mild cases and easing the strain on the healthcare system. Treatment drugs are not a path to releasing social restrictions