I think there's a chance that 538 is being too bullish on the democrats because of the weight they are putting on the fundraising numbers. Basing it on the cook report, and using the polling listed for each race on 538, you have this:There is not an impossible chance the GOP gains 2 to 5 seats in the Senate and loses the House bigly.
https://mobile.twitter.com/CookPolitica ... 0060294145Ratings Change: #NDSEN moves from Toss Up to Lean R
Toss ups DEM REP
MN-1
CA-10 49.00 46.50
CA-25 47.50 44.17
CA-39 45.50 45.50
CA-45 47.67 45.11
CA-48 47.00 45.67
FL-26 45.00 46.71
FL-27 43.80 42.40
IA-3 41.50 43.50
IL-12 42.20 45.60
IL-14 42.00 46.00
KS-02 40.00 37.50
KY-06 47.60 45.00
ME-02 45.75 45.00
MI-08 43.00 45.83
NC-09 43.50 41.75
NC-13 40.60 43.20
NJ-03 44.11 44.22
NJ-07 46.00 44.00
NM-02 42.00 47.20
NY-19 45.50 45.00
NY-22 48.00 44.80
OH-1 42.40 46.80
OH-12
PA-01 46.80 47.80
TX-07 45.67 46.67
TX-32 47.50 46.00
UT-04 42.91 47.00
VA-02 44.67 47.33
VA-07 46.00 46.67
WA-08 43.33 48.33
The democrats have to win at least 11 of these races. Outside of CA, the majority of these races are in the Rep favor.
