Politics And Current Events

NAN
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Postby NAN » Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:00 pm

Or, you know, the wife can take the kids herself.
I always enjoy when the wife takes the kids away for a weekend and I can't go.

NTP66
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Postby NTP66 » Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:01 pm

Or, you know, the wife can take the kids herself.
I always enjoy when the wife takes the kids away for a weekend and I can't go.
I've only done it once so far, and felt a little guilty... but she was going to Kansas, so that guilt didn't last long. :D

shmenguin
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Postby shmenguin » Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:02 pm

I'm interested to see if any of those 2016 losers make any real run for the presidency in the future.

I think Cruz's shot was in 2016, he had a consistent base of support and was the only one that actually ran well against Trump. But that base of support has moved solidly to the Trump wing. Rand didn't actually appeal to anyone, the base of Marco's support was probably the professional republican class, and lots of those folks are likely voting democrat until the Trump stink goes away. Jeb never had a chance, and Scott Walker is also destined for nothing.

They probably need someone like that woman from SC to navigate their path out of this, just give them a new media narrative to hang on to that isn't Q Anon, what Trump said on Hannity last night, or what twitter war Ted Cruz and Dan Crenshaw are talking about.
Unlike the others, I don't get the impression Rubio enjoys his ongoing humiliation. He's just this pouty punching bag now. I don't think he could stomach another run.

It seems like the MAGA wing is > 50% of the voters, based on what we saw with how the house voted on various matters. That disqualifies anyone from Team Very Serious Political Person. Haley, Cruz, Hawley...anyone in the Senate actually.

I think Trump himself is wondering right now if it makes more sense for him to accept the nomination or hand it to one of his surrogates. There was a lot about being president that he didn't enjoy. He could decide Ivanka gets the job, and he runs the puppet regime, while not being encumbered by things like having to live in washington, and having others sit in on his phone calls. I think this is most likely.

The whiff, of course, is that they can't actually win another national election, absent of voting rights violations to the degree we've never dreamt of.

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Postby MalkinIsMyHomeboy » Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:04 pm

who is the most appetizing Republican potential candidate? note: appetizing means someone that doesn't suck from Trump's teet

on the Dem side I'd say Buttigieg but can't really think of the Republican equivalent. The entire party seems infected with Trumpism now

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Postby Morkle » Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:13 pm

Or, you know, the wife can take the kids herself.
Or it was all BS anyways. People are saying he was due back Saturday and changed his flight as soon as he landed. He should get shredded for the optics.

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Postby shmenguin » Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:14 pm

i like Buttigieg, but like Warren, I don't think he's electable because of identity bias. The left can't win with a female or gay candidate, imo. it's a little backwards since there's both gay and female representation in the GOP, but it's a matter of surviving the campaign rhetoric, which is a different game.

on the right, all of them except Romney indicated on the record that they think it's fine to use your power as president to bribe a foreign government for personal favors. there's no acceptable candidate except him. pretty simple. sorry ben sasse...people have memories.

as far as non-politicians go, that well's also dry. and i don't think there's room for a Jeb type of character to be resurrected from the grave.

King Colby
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Postby King Colby » Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:15 pm

I don't need to double post to know that I'm an dadhole.
You don't need a single post for the rest of us to know boomroasted

Troy Loney
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Postby Troy Loney » Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:20 pm

Democrats should nominate the rock

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Postby NTP66 » Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:24 pm

Oh man, I would love that. Imagine the press conferences in character.


tifosi77
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Postby tifosi77 » Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:25 pm

I think Cruz's shot was in 2016, he had a consistent base of support and was the only one that actually ran well against Trump. But that base of support has moved solidly to the Trump wing.
Saw a thing from the Houston Chronicle covering this Cancún nonsense. He's sort of Schrödinger's politician in Texas: As far as state actors go, he is simultaneously one of the most popular, and one of the least popular. (The story noted he finished behind only Trump in a post-insurrection approval poll) Before this storm, he was sort of the only opponent who could make a guy like Beto a viable candidate for statewide office, but he still won.

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Postby shmenguin » Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:26 pm

Democrats should nominate the rock
I think they should kick the tires with Ossoff and see if there’s anything there in the long run.

Bigger crisis is that Schumer needs unseated ASAP and there’s no one to take the helm.

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Postby MalkinIsMyHomeboy » Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:30 pm

i like Buttigieg, but like Warren, I don't think he's electable because of identity bias. The left can't win with a female or gay candidate, imo. it's a little backwards since there's both gay and female representation in the GOP, but it's a matter of surviving the campaign rhetoric, which is a different game.

on the right, all of them except Romney indicated on the record that they think it's fine to use your power as president to bribe a foreign government for personal favors. there's no acceptable candidate except him. pretty simple. sorry ben sasse...people have memories.

as far as non-politicians go, that well's also dry. and i don't think there's room for a Jeb type of character to be resurrected from the grave.
I agree with you about a gay person winning a general election but I think a women winning is in the realm of possibility. Was looking up odds for 2024 (albeit from December so it's two months old), here are the top 8
Kamala Harris +200
Joe Biden +225
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +1050
Michelle Obama +1300
Pete Buttigieg +1600
Andrew Yang +1800
Elizabeth Warren +1850
Bernie Sanders +2050
I can't see AOC or Sanders because of the socialist thing, I don't think Michelle wants to run and I don't think Yang will manage to gain widespread appeal so I think it's between Harris, Pete and Warren if Biden doesn't run again


fwiw, here are the top 8 republicans
Mike Pence +350
Nikki Haley +525
Donald Trump Sr. +550
John Kasich +1300
Josh Hawley +1300
Ted Cruz +1450
Tim Scott +1700
Tom Cotton +2000
honestly I forgot about Kasich. I remembered I liked him in 2016 and reading about what he's said in the last 4 years, I'm sort of stronger on that (he's allegedly been anti-Trump since day 1). He seems more in the libertarian mold than the neo-con/Trump/evangelist mold of Republican which I like. I guess he's not only the most appetizing Republican candidate but probably the only palatable one

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Postby tifosi77 » Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:34 pm

AOC couldn't win a statewide election in NY, never mind a national contest. But the credibility of those lists is sort of nuked by the inclusion of Michelle Obama as a favorite; her odds are more like +∞, as she is never going to run. imo

tifosi77
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Postby tifosi77 » Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:35 pm

I could cast a vote for Kasich. Four years ago I could've seen myself voting for Haley, but she kinda torpedoed her credibility after leaving the Trump administration.

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Postby MalkinIsMyHomeboy » Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:36 pm

AOC couldn't win a statewide election in NY, never mind a national contest. But the credibility of those lists is sort of nuked by the inclusion of Michelle Obama as a favorite; her odds are more like +∞, as she is never going to run. imo
betting odds aren't an objective analysis of probabilities but are shaped by the betting public. for some reason, bettors think Michelle Obama is more likely to win than almost anyone else in the democratic party which is throwing away money imo

DigitalGypsy66
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Postby DigitalGypsy66 » Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:38 pm

Bernie will be in his 80s, too.

Troy Loney
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Postby Troy Loney » Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:43 pm

Bernie ain’t running again. He go knifed so bad by the dnc in 2020, pales in comparison to 2016. That they got Obama to step in and get klobuchar and Pete to drop out, and kept Warren in to keep the progressive voters divided was ruthless.

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Postby shoeshine boy » Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:47 pm

Wait, you only took the trip because school got cancelled for your girls in TX? Because there was no electricity?
Yeah, I'm done humanizing you.
must be nice to afford last minute plane tickets to Cancun....I wonder what lobbyist paid for it. (Business class is $500, economy anywhere from $260 to $440 per ticket)

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Postby MalkinIsMyHomeboy » Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:48 pm

Wait, you only took the trip because school got cancelled for your girls in TX? Because there was no electricity?
Yeah, I'm done humanizing you.
must be nice to afford last minute plane tickets to Cancun....I wonder what lobbyist paid for it. (Business class is $500, economy anywhere from $260 to $440 per ticket)
almost certainly someone in non-renewable energy so Cruz could take a shot at the Green New Deal

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Postby willeyeam » Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:05 pm


shmenguin
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Postby shmenguin » Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:06 pm

Totally forgot about Klobuchar somehow. I would actually like her to be at the top of the list for internal Dem support. She is an immeasurably more competent candidate than Harris.

She should be Senate majority leader right now. I actually think she’s pretty gifted...even though she’s allegedly a nightmare off camera. Which is probably the right persona for the job.

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Postby dodint » Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:06 pm

So help me **** god with political betting odds, still.

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Postby shmenguin » Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:08 pm

i like Buttigieg, but like Warren, I don't think he's electable because of identity bias. The left can't win with a female or gay candidate, imo. it's a little backwards since there's both gay and female representation in the GOP, but it's a matter of surviving the campaign rhetoric, which is a different game.

on the right, all of them except Romney indicated on the record that they think it's fine to use your power as president to bribe a foreign government for personal favors. there's no acceptable candidate except him. pretty simple. sorry ben sasse...people have memories.

as far as non-politicians go, that well's also dry. and i don't think there's room for a Jeb type of character to be resurrected from the grave.
I agree with you about a gay person winning a general election but I think a women winning is in the realm of possibility. Was looking up odds for 2024 (albeit from December so it's two months old), here are the top 8
Kamala Harris +200
Joe Biden +225
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +1050
Michelle Obama +1300
Pete Buttigieg +1600
Andrew Yang +1800
Elizabeth Warren +1850
Bernie Sanders +2050
I can't see AOC or Sanders because of the socialist thing, I don't think Michelle wants to run and I don't think Yang will manage to gain widespread appeal so I think it's between Harris, Pete and Warren if Biden doesn't run again


fwiw, here are the top 8 republicans
Mike Pence +350
Nikki Haley +525
Donald Trump Sr. +550
John Kasich +1300
Josh Hawley +1300
Ted Cruz +1450
Tim Scott +1700
Tom Cotton +2000
honestly I forgot about Kasich. I remembered I liked him in 2016 and reading about what he's said in the last 4 years, I'm sort of stronger on that (he's allegedly been anti-Trump since day 1). He seems more in the libertarian mold than the neo-con/Trump/evangelist mold of Republican which I like. I guess he's not only the most appetizing Republican candidate but probably the only palatable one
Nice time for a reminder that betting odds don’t reflect probability. They are simply designed to get equal action on both sides. Hence Michelle Obama.

Actual odds have Trump as the sure favorite by a landslide in the GOP. I’m not sure there’s ever been anything like it for a non-incumbent at this early stage.

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Postby MalkinIsMyHomeboy » Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:10 pm

I hope everyone is excited for Biden v Trump part II: Thrilla in Manilla in 3 years...

*vomit*

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Postby CBear3 » Thu Feb 18, 2021 3:19 pm

Totally forgot about Klobuchar somehow. I would actually like her to be at the top of the list for internal Dem support. She is an immeasurably more competent candidate than Harris.

She should be Senate majority leader right now. I actually think she’s pretty gifted...even though she’s allegedly a nightmare off camera. Which is probably the right persona for the job.
She had my support, but I'm in the Midwest so the Democratic Party shouldn't care what I think.

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